Hogs won a can't-lose game last night. Absolutely had to have it. What does it do for the resume and chances of making the tournament? Not a whole lot other than avoiding a bad loss. A Q3 home win won't move the needle much in most circumstances, with the exceptions being major blowouts. Arkansas ended up winning by double digits and covering the spread, but metrics only improved a slight bit.
So where do the metrics stand right now?
Arkansas metrics, 2-13-25:
NET: 41
KenPom: 41 (⬆️ 1)
BPI: 43 (⬆️ 2)
WAB: 44
SOR: 46
T-Rank: 47
KPI: 54 ( ⬆️ 3)
Q1A: 3-5
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 7-0
Remaining games:
Q1A: @ TAMU, @ AU
Q1: @ TAMU, @ AU, MIZ, @ VANDY, MSU
Q2: Texas, @ SCAR
That is up-to-date as of this morning. No more Q3 games on the schedule for now, and a lot of Q1 opportunities. The metrics themselves aren't bad, either. They're steadily rising and could use another couple bumps to get into the lower 40s to high 30s range.
So, this is kind of a crash course in bracketology for those who are interested:
There are two types of metrics: predictive and resume metrics.
Resume metrics are KPI (Kevin Pauga Index), WAB (Wins Above Bubble), and SOR (Strength of Record). Predictive metrics are KP (KenPom), BPI (Basketball Power Index), and TRK (T-Rank/Barttorvik).
These two types of metric are averaged and then weighted by the selection committee. We don't know the exact weight, and it can vary each year, but it's somewhat close to 50-50 with some years giving more credence to resume and other years focusing slightly more on predictive. We won't know until the initial 16 seeds drop on Saturday.
A lot of people focus on the NET, which is important to have a solid NET ranking, but it is not a selection committee seeding criteria or even a selection criteria. It is used to sort teams. The better the NET, the better your team will be sorted, and it also helps quantify and sort specific wins in the quadrants: Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4.
Taking that into account, the committee will also look at records away from home, Q1A wins (the best possible type of win a team can have on a resume), and some other factors like Q3/Q4 losses.
Right now, Arkansas' resume average is at 48 and the predictive average is 43.7. Evenly weighted, that's 45.9. Now, let's look at some other teams Arkansas is competing against on the bubble:
Texas: Resume 53.7, Predictive 33.3 = 43.5 (1)
Georgia: 45, 40.3 = 42.7 (2)
Vanderbilt: 39.3, 47.3 = 43.3 (2)
Wake Forest: 40.7, 67 = 53.9 (1)
BYU: 51, 30.7 = 40.9 (0)
Indiana: 44, 56.3 = 50.2 (2)
North Carolina: 52.3, 45.3 = 48.8 (1)
Oklahoma: 37, 48.7 = 42.9 (2)
San Diego State: 43, 56.3 = 49.7 (1)
Pittsburgh: 59.7, 54.3 = 57 (1)
Xavier: 58, 50 = 54 (1)
Of those 11 teams, plus Arkansas, the Razorbacks' average of 43.7 checks in at sixth, right at middle of the pack. So they aren't in the field, right? Wrong. Have to look at other factors, too, like quality of wins, types of losses, away from home, etc.
The main metric that is pushing Arkansas into the field right now is the Q1A record. A neutral floor victory over Michigan, a win at Kentucky, and a win at Texas have the Razorbacks with THREE Q1A wins. That's more than any of the other teams listed above (each of their Q1A wins is in parentheses).
Add to that that Arkansas has ZERO Q3/Q4 losses. North Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, and Wake Forest all have one.
There's more to it than what I've listed above, but I hope this helps y'all understand what to look for and what matters. Also, the list of bubble teams I mentioned isn't exhaustive. There are others still in the mix, as well, I just didn't include them all.
Arkansas just needs to win a few more games, which given the fact that they're all Q1/Q2 matchups, should help improve metrics at least a little bit. I still think the magic number is 18-13 (7-11).
