There are 5 BCS schools (Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oregon, and Texas Tech) in the Top 12 nationally in both Total and Scoring Offense, 7 counting non-BCS schools (add Hawaii and Boise St). 5 more BCS schools (Florida, Kentucky, LSU, OU, and West Virginia) are either in the Top 12 in one category and the Top 25 of another, or in the Top 15 of both. These are some of the very best offenses in the country this year.
The problem with the NCAA's Total and Scoring Offense stats, however, is that strength of schedule (regarding the defenses teams put up those yards/pts against) is not taken into account. LSU, for example, probably had the best offense in the country last year, even though they weren't ranked #1 in either category; the truth is that most of the teams ahead of them played far inferior defenses, inflating their numbers. (Notice how far Boise and Kansas drop in the list below?)
Numbers can also be distorted by scores by the defense or special teams, points going up and yards down due to short fields, turnovers by opponents giving an offense more possessions than most, etc.
Though it's not perfect, the most valid (and most predictive) offensive stat, one that automatically accounts for most of the distortions above, is the ratio of yards per play (ypp) gained by an offense versus the ypp gained by every other offense that's faced the exact same defenses. That's what's shown below, on a % basis, e.g., Florida has gained 35% more ypp this year than the average ypp of other teams who have played the exact same defenses. (YPPT, an indicator of whether a team is good at turning yards into points, is also listed. Lower is better, and any number under 12 is considered elite.)
Even without Monk and Cleveland, 2 of the 3 guys we designed our passing offense around, even w/o capable replacements like Tuck, even taking into account playcalling and scheme decisions many aren't happy with, even taking into account Michael Smith's fumble at UK or all those WR drops, even taking into account less than stellar recruiting and development at the QB and WR positions over the years, even taking into account AU's DL flat out shutting our OL down - just like they did to LSU last year, we still rank among the very best in NCAA football. On the whole, unless you're ignorant or choose to focus like a laser beam on the negative, as is natural when you don't win as many as you expected or when you hate a coach, our offensive staff has done a remarkable job this year.
(Now, I'm not saying we actually are or aren't one of the best offenses, just because we're among the very best in the country when it comes to what we've done versus others who've played the exact same defenses - a list that includes offenses like Florida, Kentucky, FSU, LSU, UGA, Ok St, OU, Troy, Bama, TN, South Carolina, etc. - and are also ranked among the best at converting yards into points. But, by gosh, we HAVE been a hell of a lot better on offense than the level of whining this year has suggested - when you lose 41-38, for example, it's the *defense* we should
and moan about. And it wasn't just this week's performance that ramped our numbers up, as we were among the best in the country at this ratio heading into the weekend too. I'm honestly not sure any Hog offense in school history has ever ranked as high when it comes to this ratio, and I don't think many are grasping just how big a deal that is - of course, we've never had a Darren McFadden before either...)
Note: This list, unfortunately, does not weed out stats against non-D1 opponents or directional schools (we look better when they are weeded out, since our offensive showings against UTC and FIU were poor versus the other schools they've played on a ypp basis), nor does it weed out garbage yards or the numbers each listed school put up against the defenses they faced (making opponent defenses look worse than they really are, e.g., every defense has worse stats after they play Florida). They are, however, apples to apples figures.
(I may have access to the better stats later in the week, I don't know. It takes time for people to put them together, I don't always have access to them, and I'm too busy these days to do it myself. For now, here's how the best offenses in the country stack up. My guess is that we'd be in the Top 3 of the better list, just behind Florida and Oregon, after weeding out garbage, your own yards, and including every NCAA team.)
School %Adv YPPT
Florida 34.62% 11
Oregon 26.42% 11.9
WVU 23.64% 11.6
Ark 20.37% 11.5
OU 17.86% 10.2
T Tech 16.39% 13.1
Hawaii 15.87% 10.3
LSU 15.69% 11.8
Missou 14.29% 12.1
UK 11.11% 11.6
BoiseSt 10.53% 11.6
Kansas 8.47% 10.6
This post was edited on 11/5 12:31 PM by jclampit
The problem with the NCAA's Total and Scoring Offense stats, however, is that strength of schedule (regarding the defenses teams put up those yards/pts against) is not taken into account. LSU, for example, probably had the best offense in the country last year, even though they weren't ranked #1 in either category; the truth is that most of the teams ahead of them played far inferior defenses, inflating their numbers. (Notice how far Boise and Kansas drop in the list below?)
Numbers can also be distorted by scores by the defense or special teams, points going up and yards down due to short fields, turnovers by opponents giving an offense more possessions than most, etc.
Though it's not perfect, the most valid (and most predictive) offensive stat, one that automatically accounts for most of the distortions above, is the ratio of yards per play (ypp) gained by an offense versus the ypp gained by every other offense that's faced the exact same defenses. That's what's shown below, on a % basis, e.g., Florida has gained 35% more ypp this year than the average ypp of other teams who have played the exact same defenses. (YPPT, an indicator of whether a team is good at turning yards into points, is also listed. Lower is better, and any number under 12 is considered elite.)
Even without Monk and Cleveland, 2 of the 3 guys we designed our passing offense around, even w/o capable replacements like Tuck, even taking into account playcalling and scheme decisions many aren't happy with, even taking into account Michael Smith's fumble at UK or all those WR drops, even taking into account less than stellar recruiting and development at the QB and WR positions over the years, even taking into account AU's DL flat out shutting our OL down - just like they did to LSU last year, we still rank among the very best in NCAA football. On the whole, unless you're ignorant or choose to focus like a laser beam on the negative, as is natural when you don't win as many as you expected or when you hate a coach, our offensive staff has done a remarkable job this year.
(Now, I'm not saying we actually are or aren't one of the best offenses, just because we're among the very best in the country when it comes to what we've done versus others who've played the exact same defenses - a list that includes offenses like Florida, Kentucky, FSU, LSU, UGA, Ok St, OU, Troy, Bama, TN, South Carolina, etc. - and are also ranked among the best at converting yards into points. But, by gosh, we HAVE been a hell of a lot better on offense than the level of whining this year has suggested - when you lose 41-38, for example, it's the *defense* we should
and moan about. And it wasn't just this week's performance that ramped our numbers up, as we were among the best in the country at this ratio heading into the weekend too. I'm honestly not sure any Hog offense in school history has ever ranked as high when it comes to this ratio, and I don't think many are grasping just how big a deal that is - of course, we've never had a Darren McFadden before either...)Note: This list, unfortunately, does not weed out stats against non-D1 opponents or directional schools (we look better when they are weeded out, since our offensive showings against UTC and FIU were poor versus the other schools they've played on a ypp basis), nor does it weed out garbage yards or the numbers each listed school put up against the defenses they faced (making opponent defenses look worse than they really are, e.g., every defense has worse stats after they play Florida). They are, however, apples to apples figures.
(I may have access to the better stats later in the week, I don't know. It takes time for people to put them together, I don't always have access to them, and I'm too busy these days to do it myself. For now, here's how the best offenses in the country stack up. My guess is that we'd be in the Top 3 of the better list, just behind Florida and Oregon, after weeding out garbage, your own yards, and including every NCAA team.)
School %Adv YPPT
Florida 34.62% 11
Oregon 26.42% 11.9
WVU 23.64% 11.6
Ark 20.37% 11.5
OU 17.86% 10.2
T Tech 16.39% 13.1
Hawaii 15.87% 10.3
LSU 15.69% 11.8
Missou 14.29% 12.1
UK 11.11% 11.6
BoiseSt 10.53% 11.6
Kansas 8.47% 10.6
This post was edited on 11/5 12:31 PM by jclampit
