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Analytical look at Hoop Hogs ahead of Baylor game

RileyMcFerran

Managing editor
Staff
Mar 30, 2019
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Lavaca, AR


From @masonchoate:

First-year head coach John Calipari's 16th-ranked Razorbacks hit the hardwood for the first official time Wednesday in a 76-60 win over Lipscomb to provide a glimpse at what this year's squad will look like.

The win over the Bisons moved Arkansas up one spot to 28th in the rankings provided by KenPom, which is a predictive system that provides ratings, analytics and much more. Lipscomb moved down one spot to 127th in the KenPom ratings after the loss.

Guard Johnell Davis earned team MVP honors from KenPom's system with an offensive rating of 112 (points produced divided by possessions used) after a 15-point performance with six rebounds, one assists, one block and one steal.

Freshman Karter Knox had the team's highest offensive rating (137), while fellow freshman Boogie Fland's usage rate of 26% was the highest of any Razorback.

Notably, the Hogs rank 10th nationally with a defensive rating of 93.4 after the opener. Calipari has had 11 teams make the NCAA Tournament with top-30 defensive rating, and nine of those teams made the Elite Eight, four made the Final Four, two made the national championship and one won the whole thing.

The updated projected record for Arkansas from KenPom is 20-11 with a 10-8 mark in conference play. KenPom projects the Hogs to lose to No. 8 Baylor on Saturday, 77-76.

The Razorbacks have a strength of schedule rating of 143rd, according to KenPom. That number will go up soon, as Baylor will be a tough test Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CT inside American Airlines Center in Dallas. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU.

Below is a closer look at some of the numbers for the Razorbacks...

Rankings​


AP: 16th
Coaches: 16th
KenPom: 28th
BartTorvik: 35th
EvanMiya: 31st

Stats​


Scoring offense: 76.0 (t-213th)
Scoring defense: 60.0 (t-97th)
Assists: 10.0 (t-284th)
Field goal percentage: 54.0 (t-66th)
3-point percentage: 21.1 (316th)
Free throw percentage: 57.1 (293rd)
Rebounds: 35.0 (t-225th)
Blocks: 5.0 (t-83rd)
Steals: 11.0 (t-55th)

KenPom​


KenPom Analytics
CategoryOffenseDefense
Adj. Efficiency111.9 (54th)93.4 (10th)
Avg. Poss. Length15.6 (71st)17.6 (176th)
Effective FG%57.1 (73rd)45.7 (93rd)
Turnover%16.2 (100th)25.6 (23rd)
Off. Reb%20.0 (233rd)14.7 (13th)
FTA/FGA11.1 (269th)15.5 (19th)
2P%68.2 (23rd)41.9 (70th)
FT%57.1 (229th)77.8 (206th)
Block%2.3 (21st)16.1 (44th)
Steal%10.8 (160th)14.8 (37th)
Non-Stl TO%5.4 (63rd)10.8 (52nd)
 
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