HawgBeat - Arkansas at offensive crossroads heading into offseason
Is it time for the Arkansas baseball program to make an offensive philosophy change this offseason?
arkansas.rivals.com
Arkansas baseball's 2024 season has officially come to a close following a 6-3 NCAA Tournament loss to Southeast Missouri State on Sunday, and the time for offseason reflection is upon us. The biggest question mark: is it time for the program to make an offensive philosophy change?
This season, Arkansas currently has the nation's 184th-worst batting average (.272) and the Hogs rank 194th in doubles (92), 142nd in hits (529), 61st in home runs (85), 115th in runs (398) and 154th in scoring (6.7 runs per game). Only three everyday players finished with an average above .300 in Peyton Stovall (.338), Ben McLaughlin (.301) and Peyton Holt (.327).
"Offense has been a roller-coaster all year," head coach Dave Van Horn said on Sunday. "Whether it’s a shoulder injury or a bad start for different players, we had to fight for so many wins."
Even though it was Arkansas' worst offensive season since 2016, the lack of production isn't an anomaly. Since hitting coach Nate Thompson arrived in Fayetteville prior to the 2018 season — the year Arkansas finished as national runners-up to Oregon State — the Razorbacks' offense has seen a decline in average and other statistics:
Arkansas' offensive output
| Year | Batting Average (Rank) | Home runs (Rank) | Runs (Rank) | Hits (Rank) | Scoring (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .272 (184th) | 85 (61st) | 398 (115th) | 529 (142nd) | 6.7 RPG (154th) |
| 2023 | .273 (189th) | 92 (36th) | 462 (38th) | 543 (125th) | 7.6 RPG (57th) |
| 2022 | .276 (153rd) | 106 (15th) | 472 (32nd) | 628 (28th) | 7.0 RPG (93rd) |
| 2021 | .267 (144th) | 109 (1st) | 483 (4th) | 560 (28th) | 7.7 RPG (13th) |
| 2019 | .298 (21st) | 88 (7th) | 491 (9th) | 679 (8th) | 7.4 RPG (17th) |
| 2018 | .296 (23rd) | 98 (3rd) | 482 (8th) | 695 (4th) | 7.0 RPG (23rd) |
| 2017 | .286 (78th) | 83 (9th) | 322 (27th) | 627 (27th) | 6.6 RPG (53rd) |
There's a lot to take in from these numbers, but most glaringly is the dropoff after the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season. Arkansas still found a way to mash the baseball in 2021 and 2022 thanks to its home-run production, but 2023 and especially 2024 showed what happens when you lack top-tier power in Thompson's offense.
Arkansas' prime was from 2018-19, when players like Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, Dominic Fletcher and others roamed the diamond at Baum-Walker Stadium. Those two years earned Arkansas hitters their "Sooieville Sluggers" moniker and also gave way to some of the best postseason runs to the College World Series.
Even in 2017 — when now-Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello was on staff — Arkansas had glimpses of greatness.
So, what's changed in the last four years since the canceled 2020 campaign? Are the baseballs different? What about Thompson, have his teachings changed? If you ask Van Horn, Thompson is far from the problem.
"(Nate Thompson is) ate up with the offense and analytics," Van Horn said. "He really tries to train a swing. He does a great job. Nobody works harder than him at it. You can always make adjustments, and a lot of times I think what you're talking about is maybe a little bit more of an approach. Really in my opinion, that's always important to do that."
It wasn't that long ago that Arkansas was known for having a station-to-station offense that thrived off timely hitting rather than long balls. Perhaps a return to that strategy may make some sense for Van Horn and the Razorbacks.
"We've got to get a little better athlete," Van Horn said. "We can't just have eight guys that hit homers. I like guys that hit doubles and I like guys that hit homers, but you've got to have some guys that can run, too. You've got to be able to create some offense the days the winds blowing in or they're really good on the mound and you can you're having trouble making contact."
The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, however. Thompson's offenses have proven to be successful when they have a power foundation, so stripping that away may lead to unfavorable results. At the same time, relying on power alone is a big reason why the Hogs have fallen in recent NCAA Tournaments.
Across its last four elimination matchups, Arkansas has averaged a whopping 2.25 runs per game. When you include the two prime seasons of 2018 and 2019, that number actually falls to 2.17 runs per game. Falling flat when the lights are brightest is not exactly a ringing endorsement for an offense, and that's because hitting home runs against elite arms in the postseason is extremely difficult.
Having the ability to hit for average and hit the occasional home run is a proven formula along the road to Omaha, and it's something that Van Horn may be vying to get back to.
"We're trying to get the right players," Van Horn said. "The four guys that we lost last year that were high school kids, those kids could all really run and they could hit and play. It kind of devastated us a little bit. It threw us back. So yeah, always looking to get better and make adjustments."
