I'm assuming this is OK to post here: http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/8/arkansas-razorbacks
In looking at the ESPN FPI, I find a few of their predictions/projections hard to buy.
1) They give us an 80.6% probability of beating Miss State, and a 77.7% against Mizzou, but only 82.9% against Texas Tech. Does anyone believe Texas Tech is that close to those teams?
2) They give us a 69.4% chance to beat #6 Auburn, but only 42.1% chance to beat #26 A&M on a neutral field.
3) According to these probabilities, beating Alabama is only slightly less likely (37.1%) than beating Ole Miss (40%), Tennessee (41%), and A&M (42.1%). LSU is our toughest game, as they only give us 28.8% chance to win.
I would have expected Bama to be the lowest probability, followed by LSU, and a little more separation for Ole Miss, Tennessee, and A&M. That's just my gut instinct though.
In looking at the ESPN FPI, I find a few of their predictions/projections hard to buy.
1) They give us an 80.6% probability of beating Miss State, and a 77.7% against Mizzou, but only 82.9% against Texas Tech. Does anyone believe Texas Tech is that close to those teams?
2) They give us a 69.4% chance to beat #6 Auburn, but only 42.1% chance to beat #26 A&M on a neutral field.
3) According to these probabilities, beating Alabama is only slightly less likely (37.1%) than beating Ole Miss (40%), Tennessee (41%), and A&M (42.1%). LSU is our toughest game, as they only give us 28.8% chance to win.
I would have expected Bama to be the lowest probability, followed by LSU, and a little more separation for Ole Miss, Tennessee, and A&M. That's just my gut instinct though.
