Now that we're done, I thought I'd throw out some thoughts for discussion regarding current state and where we go from here.
First, I thought this was a good season. Not very good. Not great. Good. Finishing second in the SEC and making it to the round of 32 in the NCAAT is about where I thought we'd be in year 4 of Mike's tenure. We've talked ad nauseum about what led to the outcome of the season, so no need to hash that out more. Ky Madden, although falling short of my expectations over his career, turned into a solid player that was really important to the resurgence of this program. He became a very good three point shooter, and helped put us in position to win a lot of games over the years. Alandise Harris made big strides from year 1 to 2 in the program. While he always had those WTH moments, he was key to what we did, especially his ability to defend 4 spots on the floor and knack for producing away from Bud Walton. Those are two Arkansas guys that provided a good amount of value.
Current State:
As for where we sit today. I feel pretty good. Not good. Not very good. Not great. Obviously, there are major questions if we lose our two bell cows. That points to lack of quality depth, which points to lack of appropriate recruiting. Of course, there's speculation in those conclusions, as the players that we've seen limited productivity from may blossom next year. I'm just trying to forecast reasonable development and uptick in productivity. Still there's an argument that we should've recruited a little better than we have to this point. There's also an argument that Mike and staff did a reasonable job recruiting, considering the circumstances - APR and state of the program (selling a mediocre program). Personally, I wish Mike and staff would go about recruiting a little different, but I don't have a major concern overall. I worry a little
.
Current Player Forecasts (leaving Portis and Qualls out):
> Beard: I see a small uptick in productivity, but large uptick in intangible value. Beard hit the wall, and injuries made that wall even higher at the end. He showed his potential this year. The area for most improvement is getting past his man off the dribble. At this point, he's not a strong ballhandler. We've seen ball skill development in other players, so I expect Beard to improve in this category, too. He's somewhat like Madden in that he has a chance to develop into a good high major PG, and it hinges on his ability to create and that's tied mostly to his dribble ability. Still, I expect him to start at the PG spot, and continue to be that bulldog that he showed he could be this year. Leader.
> Bell: At this point, I think he is what he is. Streaky shooter and not much else. We need streaky shooters, but there's a chance for decreased minutes due to Babb's potential and Hannahs like-skillset.
> Watkins: I see a little more room for development. He was very, very selective shot-wise this year. I think he'll become a little more confident there and provide slightly more value overall. He'll continue to get minutes b/c of his stealing ability in the press.
> Durham: It seems like I've been a little higher on Durham versus others. I see ability. I just think he was too amp'd up 95% of the time on the floor, which led to bad decisions, too much fouling and looseness with the ball. That said, like Bell, the potential of Bell and the addition of Whitt could result in limited minutes again for Jabril.
> Babb: The potential is easy to see. He just needs more confidence, and my guess is that he makes a good jump in that category over the offseason. Very versatile, I expect him to spend most of his time off the ball, but he'll handle it some for us. Needs to also work on his handle so that he can use that speed and explosion to get by his man. Big uptick in production is my prediction.
> Williams: Ehhhh, who knows? Started off this year really nicely. Some of you remember that I've said the potential is there to become a Terrance Henry-type player. It just seems like he doesn't have it between the ears. He's tailor-made for this system, and he's flashed. To his credit, he's been coached and has shown restraint with his jumper. Freshman year, he shot 19 three's. This year? 0. His production/value change depends on if Portis is here, how much Kingsley develops and if Miles shows up. I think he probably does what he did this year.
> Kingsley: Money time. The fact that Kingsley has only played 5 years of organized basketball has been fair justification for his play to this point. I don't think that becomes fair justification starting next year. He's made strides, although not significant. I think he tried to do too much this year. Kind of like Jabril; too eager, which led to erratic play. Feet (balance) and fundamentals need significant work. He needs to take coaching on his defense b/c right now, he's a terrible decision-maker. I'm cautiously optimistic that we see a significant jump in production and value. He's key.
> Miles: His injuries weren't really publicized much, and I'm not sure how hurt he is/was. Based on his past play, Miles can be a solid role player for us, I'm convinced. Right now, he's just a big question mark, obviously.
> Thompson: Step 1 accomplished. Trey got in the program and reshaped his body. I saw improved agility and explosion, albeit in warmups. I've talked and talked and talked about Trey on here, so not going to say much more. He still has a long ways to go, IMO. Next year, he should get limited minutes.
Newcomer Forecasts:
> Hannahs: I see an Anthlon Bell-type player with a slightly higher ceiling, which would be reached by more discipline on defense and more consistency offensively. Don't let the white stereotypes fly. He's as or more athletic than Bell. He can defend well enough to not be a liability as long as he knows his spots and stays disciplined. He should get more and easier shots in this system (due to space created by transition) versus at Tech. I expect him to be a solid role player. I bet Mike is telling him he can be like Matt Lawrence was for him at Mizzou.
> Whitt: Immediate impact player. May not start out of the gate, but I think he'll get at least the second most minutes of our guards by the end of the year. First, the kid really knows the game; has a great feel. Couple that with his combo guard ability, and he fills some holes for us next year. He's a creator. His ballhandling is as good as anyone on our team. He will handle the ball a lot for us. I think freshman Lee Mayberry when I think about the type of game Jimmy has. Lee was a better shooter, but Jimmy is will score and pass off the dribble like Lee did. Bread and butter is the blow-by and the pull-up. He's also a plus defender with a 6'9 wingspan. Big time contributor next year.
> Kapita: I wish I knew more about him overall and his current condition. We could get a glimpse of him April 2-4 on the ESPN channels in the Dick's Sporting Goods High School Nationals. Even if he is healthy, he hasn't been playing all year, so there's room for our fanbase to jump to quick, unfair conclusions. At the very least, there's potential to add immediate value off the bench next year, IMO. He's a physical guy, and that's a need for our team. He's also a highly productive rebounder, another need for our team. At this point, though, he's a question mark due to the injury (hip pinched nerve) and whispers of amateur status risk. Gotta hope our staff made the right decision here.
The Future:
It's easy to forecast next year with Portis and Qualls. Similar regular season record, higher ranking and seed, and if all is normal in the postseason, I see a Sweet 16 team at the least. I think we're a top 10-15 team with a higher ceiling. Without Portis and Qualls, man...
...Just hard to predict b/c we relied so much on them this year. Williams, Kingsley, Miles and Kapita become really important, obviously. And, that's a little scary.
Being a fan, I feel like so much hinges on Portis and Qualls staying. The program's health could be really different depending on what they do. Stay, and use that momentum to sell to the 2016 class - Malik Monk, Jaylen Fisher, Mitchell Smith, Micah Thomas, etc. Don't stay, and there's question marks of how good we'll be next year; the sale is tougher at that point. Plus, what are the other effects if we don't have a good season (miss the tourney) next year? Loss of fan support and revenue are two biggies. If Portis and Qualls stay, Bud Walton will be packed. If they leave, I see similar crowds to this year at first with the opportunity to decrease year over year. We also have the opportunity for fan-divide, which is never healthy.
If one stays and one goes, I don't think we'll improve much year over year; I see similar results. If I had to pick one to leave with purpose of being the best scenario for next year, I'd pick Qualls. I think having a post presence is more important. We could go smaller on the perimeter next year with some success, I think.
Regardless, no matter what happens next year, Mike is here to stay for awhile. It won't be the end of the world to not have a good season next year, but we better bounce back in 2016-17 and stay a NCAAT team from there onward. If not, we'll have a new coach a handful of years down the road.
So, I force myself to think about things as they happen. I have no expectations of Portis and Qualls and their status. If we lose one or both of them, I'll adjust my expectations slightly, and wait to see how the current players have developed and what the newcomers bring.
Overall, even though I thought we'd get there a year faster, Mike has this team where I thought it'd be in year 4. Next year is really important for the future.
This post was edited on 3/23 11:39 AM by RazorAg
First, I thought this was a good season. Not very good. Not great. Good. Finishing second in the SEC and making it to the round of 32 in the NCAAT is about where I thought we'd be in year 4 of Mike's tenure. We've talked ad nauseum about what led to the outcome of the season, so no need to hash that out more. Ky Madden, although falling short of my expectations over his career, turned into a solid player that was really important to the resurgence of this program. He became a very good three point shooter, and helped put us in position to win a lot of games over the years. Alandise Harris made big strides from year 1 to 2 in the program. While he always had those WTH moments, he was key to what we did, especially his ability to defend 4 spots on the floor and knack for producing away from Bud Walton. Those are two Arkansas guys that provided a good amount of value.
Current State:
As for where we sit today. I feel pretty good. Not good. Not very good. Not great. Obviously, there are major questions if we lose our two bell cows. That points to lack of quality depth, which points to lack of appropriate recruiting. Of course, there's speculation in those conclusions, as the players that we've seen limited productivity from may blossom next year. I'm just trying to forecast reasonable development and uptick in productivity. Still there's an argument that we should've recruited a little better than we have to this point. There's also an argument that Mike and staff did a reasonable job recruiting, considering the circumstances - APR and state of the program (selling a mediocre program). Personally, I wish Mike and staff would go about recruiting a little different, but I don't have a major concern overall. I worry a little
.Current Player Forecasts (leaving Portis and Qualls out):
> Beard: I see a small uptick in productivity, but large uptick in intangible value. Beard hit the wall, and injuries made that wall even higher at the end. He showed his potential this year. The area for most improvement is getting past his man off the dribble. At this point, he's not a strong ballhandler. We've seen ball skill development in other players, so I expect Beard to improve in this category, too. He's somewhat like Madden in that he has a chance to develop into a good high major PG, and it hinges on his ability to create and that's tied mostly to his dribble ability. Still, I expect him to start at the PG spot, and continue to be that bulldog that he showed he could be this year. Leader.
> Bell: At this point, I think he is what he is. Streaky shooter and not much else. We need streaky shooters, but there's a chance for decreased minutes due to Babb's potential and Hannahs like-skillset.
> Watkins: I see a little more room for development. He was very, very selective shot-wise this year. I think he'll become a little more confident there and provide slightly more value overall. He'll continue to get minutes b/c of his stealing ability in the press.
> Durham: It seems like I've been a little higher on Durham versus others. I see ability. I just think he was too amp'd up 95% of the time on the floor, which led to bad decisions, too much fouling and looseness with the ball. That said, like Bell, the potential of Bell and the addition of Whitt could result in limited minutes again for Jabril.
> Babb: The potential is easy to see. He just needs more confidence, and my guess is that he makes a good jump in that category over the offseason. Very versatile, I expect him to spend most of his time off the ball, but he'll handle it some for us. Needs to also work on his handle so that he can use that speed and explosion to get by his man. Big uptick in production is my prediction.
> Williams: Ehhhh, who knows? Started off this year really nicely. Some of you remember that I've said the potential is there to become a Terrance Henry-type player. It just seems like he doesn't have it between the ears. He's tailor-made for this system, and he's flashed. To his credit, he's been coached and has shown restraint with his jumper. Freshman year, he shot 19 three's. This year? 0. His production/value change depends on if Portis is here, how much Kingsley develops and if Miles shows up. I think he probably does what he did this year.
> Kingsley: Money time. The fact that Kingsley has only played 5 years of organized basketball has been fair justification for his play to this point. I don't think that becomes fair justification starting next year. He's made strides, although not significant. I think he tried to do too much this year. Kind of like Jabril; too eager, which led to erratic play. Feet (balance) and fundamentals need significant work. He needs to take coaching on his defense b/c right now, he's a terrible decision-maker. I'm cautiously optimistic that we see a significant jump in production and value. He's key.
> Miles: His injuries weren't really publicized much, and I'm not sure how hurt he is/was. Based on his past play, Miles can be a solid role player for us, I'm convinced. Right now, he's just a big question mark, obviously.
> Thompson: Step 1 accomplished. Trey got in the program and reshaped his body. I saw improved agility and explosion, albeit in warmups. I've talked and talked and talked about Trey on here, so not going to say much more. He still has a long ways to go, IMO. Next year, he should get limited minutes.
Newcomer Forecasts:
> Hannahs: I see an Anthlon Bell-type player with a slightly higher ceiling, which would be reached by more discipline on defense and more consistency offensively. Don't let the white stereotypes fly. He's as or more athletic than Bell. He can defend well enough to not be a liability as long as he knows his spots and stays disciplined. He should get more and easier shots in this system (due to space created by transition) versus at Tech. I expect him to be a solid role player. I bet Mike is telling him he can be like Matt Lawrence was for him at Mizzou.
> Whitt: Immediate impact player. May not start out of the gate, but I think he'll get at least the second most minutes of our guards by the end of the year. First, the kid really knows the game; has a great feel. Couple that with his combo guard ability, and he fills some holes for us next year. He's a creator. His ballhandling is as good as anyone on our team. He will handle the ball a lot for us. I think freshman Lee Mayberry when I think about the type of game Jimmy has. Lee was a better shooter, but Jimmy is will score and pass off the dribble like Lee did. Bread and butter is the blow-by and the pull-up. He's also a plus defender with a 6'9 wingspan. Big time contributor next year.
> Kapita: I wish I knew more about him overall and his current condition. We could get a glimpse of him April 2-4 on the ESPN channels in the Dick's Sporting Goods High School Nationals. Even if he is healthy, he hasn't been playing all year, so there's room for our fanbase to jump to quick, unfair conclusions. At the very least, there's potential to add immediate value off the bench next year, IMO. He's a physical guy, and that's a need for our team. He's also a highly productive rebounder, another need for our team. At this point, though, he's a question mark due to the injury (hip pinched nerve) and whispers of amateur status risk. Gotta hope our staff made the right decision here.
The Future:
It's easy to forecast next year with Portis and Qualls. Similar regular season record, higher ranking and seed, and if all is normal in the postseason, I see a Sweet 16 team at the least. I think we're a top 10-15 team with a higher ceiling. Without Portis and Qualls, man...
...Just hard to predict b/c we relied so much on them this year. Williams, Kingsley, Miles and Kapita become really important, obviously. And, that's a little scary.
Being a fan, I feel like so much hinges on Portis and Qualls staying. The program's health could be really different depending on what they do. Stay, and use that momentum to sell to the 2016 class - Malik Monk, Jaylen Fisher, Mitchell Smith, Micah Thomas, etc. Don't stay, and there's question marks of how good we'll be next year; the sale is tougher at that point. Plus, what are the other effects if we don't have a good season (miss the tourney) next year? Loss of fan support and revenue are two biggies. If Portis and Qualls stay, Bud Walton will be packed. If they leave, I see similar crowds to this year at first with the opportunity to decrease year over year. We also have the opportunity for fan-divide, which is never healthy.
If one stays and one goes, I don't think we'll improve much year over year; I see similar results. If I had to pick one to leave with purpose of being the best scenario for next year, I'd pick Qualls. I think having a post presence is more important. We could go smaller on the perimeter next year with some success, I think.
Regardless, no matter what happens next year, Mike is here to stay for awhile. It won't be the end of the world to not have a good season next year, but we better bounce back in 2016-17 and stay a NCAAT team from there onward. If not, we'll have a new coach a handful of years down the road.
So, I force myself to think about things as they happen. I have no expectations of Portis and Qualls and their status. If we lose one or both of them, I'll adjust my expectations slightly, and wait to see how the current players have developed and what the newcomers bring.
Overall, even though I thought we'd get there a year faster, Mike has this team where I thought it'd be in year 4. Next year is really important for the future.
This post was edited on 3/23 11:39 AM by RazorAg
