HawgBeat - Can Arkansas beat Texas A&M?
HawgBeat breaks down recent trends, efficiency ratings and more to argue if Arkansas can beat Texas A&M.
arkansas.rivals.com
The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2, 0-1 SEC) have made it to the second game of a brutal four-game road stretch and the opponent — the Texas A&M Aggies (3-1, 1-0 SEC) — might be the most beatable of the four.
Head coach Sam Pittman took his team down to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, last weekend and nearly escaped with an upset over the LSU Tigers. But like the Hogs have done often under Pittman, they lost a one-possession game, 34-31.
That game marked the sixth-straight loss in a regular season game that has been decided by one possession for the Razorbacks. Not only have they lost those six games — dating back to the 23-21 loss to Texas A&M last year — but the Hogs have more losses by three points or less than any other team in the country since 2020.
If you want to get into strictly the Arkansas and Texas A&M matchup, the Hogs have lost 10 of the 11 meetings since the Aggies joined the SEC. At this point in time, it might be a stretch to call the Southwest Classic a rivalry until the Hogs hold up their end of the bargain.
"Well, I would think the rivalry would mean more to us because we’re one of the last 11," Pittman said Wednesday. "Certainly, I’ve been on some of those overtime losses and things where the game looked like it was ours, just like last year. And not able to win it.
"But, it’s definitely a rivalry for us, you don’t see many series lopsided at 1-10 like that, but we did go through some rough, rough years as well in there. But, I think if we can get a lead, we’ve got to figure out how to extend the lead and not just try to hold onto it."
Just looking at the analytics and efficiency ratings from Arkansas' last two games — 7-point loss to BYU and 3-point loss at LSU — you could say that the Hogs beat themselves in both games and back that statement up.
Arkansas even ranks 14th in the nation with a 93.3 overall team grade on Pro Football Focus. That ranks just below Missouri and just above Texas A&M, plus it's also above teams like Georgia, LSU, Texas and Florida State. The next highest ranked two-loss team is Clemson at No. 40.
Penalties, bad game management and mental mistakes have really hurt the Razorbacks in back-to-back weeks. Pittman has been right to say he's proud of his team's effort after the past two games, but they just need to put a little bit more effort into limiting the self-inflicted wounds.
"Our biggest concern right now is we’re killing ourselves in penalties," Pittman said. "And we have to get rid of that. I know it’s a broken record because we’ve done that for three of the fur weeks. We’ve got to get rid of that. We’ve got to quit hurting ourselves."
The loss to BYU in Week 3 has a direct correlation to the 14 penalties the Razorbacks had in that game. Arkansas still had 11 penalties against LSU, but it managed to overcome basically all of them. The thing the Hogs couldn't overcome was the reckless use of timeouts.
By the 14:52 mark in the fourth quarter, the Razorbacks were out of timeouts. The third timeout was called after tight end Nathan Bax had back-to-back false starts. Pittman said lining up and getting set faster could help in that area.
"We’ve got to get the call in faster," Pittman said. "We have to, because I didn’t have any (timeouts) left. We didn’t have chance (at the end). It was either let them score or knock or try to knock it out of them there at the end.
"Yes, we’re going to (address it). We’re not going to have music the first part of practice (on Monday). We’re just going to have it during two-minute today so we can really coach the urgency of … And we haven’t had that problem in the past, so it had to have something to do with noise."
Just as the LSU game is always interesting no matter how both teams have fared that year, the Texas A&M game is the same way for the Hogs. Six of the last nine meetings have been decided by seven points or less, and all six of those resulted in a loss for Arkansas.
"I mean, we’re trying to get this one and come out on top," Arkansas defensive end Landon Jackson said. "It’s a big time game, and I'm really trying to get a win. I don’t like losing. I come from a winning history. I want to get this win for sure."
The Aggies have five former five-star prospects listed as starters, and the average star rating of the Texas A&M starters is 3.77. On the other hand, Arkansas has just one former five-star (Jaheim Singletary) and its average star rating of starts is 3.22.
Texas A&M is better than Arkansas in just about every offensive statistical category and the Aggies also boast the nation's No. 14 total defense. Pro Football Focus sees things differently, as the Hogs have graded out better in every category but passing offense and special teams.
Vegas views the Aggies as a 5.5-point favorite as of the publishing of this story. That number has dropped since the line initially dropped and I think it's moving in the right direction. All last week, the 17.5-point spread was just way too much for the Arkansas-LSU game and I thought the initial 7.5 or 6.5 point spreads for the Texas A&M game were also a little high.
Just based on the way this Arkansas team has played to this point, it just feels like they will give it a good shot and be there in the end just to have some sort of mistake result in another heartbreaking loss that leaves you thinking "What if?"
Absolutely, Arkansas can beat this Texas A&M team and go into Oxford, Mississippi, next weekend with a lot of momentum. And to be honest, the Hogs really need a win this weekend. They have the Ole Miss game next and a trip to Alabama after that, so none of the next three weeks are gimmes.
The urgency of Sam Pittman's team needs to be at an all-time high this weekend. With a 2-2 record, back-to-back losses and two brutal roadtrips coming up, it's a possibility that the Hogs could be 2-5 the next time they play in Fayetteville — Oct. 21 against Mississippi State.
Saturday's game is set for an 11 a.m. CT kickoff at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.
