HawgBeat - Can Arkansas upset LSU?
HawgBeat publisher Mason Choate gives his thoughts on if the Razorbacks can pull of an upset at LSU.
arkansas.rivals.com
This year's edition of the Battle for the Golden Boot looks very similar to most of the matchups in the past 10 years — a nationally-ranked LSU squad against an Arkansas team trying to pull off an upset.
More often than not, the Tigers have prevailed as winners, as Arkansas is 3-7 in the last 10 matchups and the Hogs trail LSU 43-23-2 in the all-time series. Despite having all the losses, the Razorbacks have proven they can get up for the LSU game.
Since 2000, Arkansas is 6-13 against ranked LSU teams, and the Hogs lost by an average of just under 16 points per game in those 13 losses. Saturday's matchup will also be the 16th time since 2000 that it featured an unranked Arkansas team against a ranked LSU team, and the Razorbacks won five of those matchups.
Can this year's squad be like the 2015 team that upset then-No. 9 LSU in Baton Rouge? I mean, that team did have a couple of coaches named Sam Pittman and Dan Enos on it.
Let's start with the No. 12 LSU Tigers, who have a 2-1 overall record through three weeks. Everyone watched that Sunday night matchup against Florida State in Week 1 and wrote the Tigers off after they lost 45-24, but they've quietly dominated two weeks in a row.
LSU out-scored Grambling and Mississippi State 113-24 in back-to-back weeks and the Tigers will be at home under the lights for the second time this season when Arkansas comes to town.
"Us and LSU, we’ve played them three times, and there’s three points between the last three games," Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman said Monday. "We lost by three, won by three, lost by three. We’ll be ready to play. I know they will be too."
Pittman has coached just one game at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and it resulted in a 16-13 win in overtime during the 2021 season. That LSU team was 4-5 entering that game under former head coach Ed Orgeron. Things are much different with Brian Kelly running the show.
"For LSU, I’m sure they got embarrassed the first game and they said ‘We’re better than this,'" Pittman said. "Which they are. And they went out and started playing a little bit better. I don’t know what the problem was the first game, but they’re playing a lot better."
Things begin on the offensive side of the ball with Jayden Daniels at quarterback for LSU. He was nearly flawless last week, when he completed 30-of-34 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 64 yards and two scores.
"He’s just throwing the ball on point and then he’s a great runner," Pittman said. "He’s playing, in my opinion, the best he’s ever played right now. So that helps them bounce back."
Daniels had one of his worst performances of the season last year at Arkansas. He completed just 8-of-15 passes for 86 yards and he had an interception as well in the 13-10 win over the Razorbacks.
Covering up Daniels' tough performance was then-freshman linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., who had eight tackles, three sacks and two forced fumbles against the Hogs.
"I went back and watched last year's game this morning actually, and I mean he ran down Malik Hornsby several times, so I know he’s fast," Pittman said of Perkins. "You know, they're playing him a little but differently and they’ve got a different defense. They got Coach House and they’ve got a different coordinator.
"He hasn’t rushed as much as he had in the past, but really his plays against us he was a spy. He was a spy and when Malik broke, he went and ran him down. I don’t know if that’s what they’re going to do with KJ or not. I would assume not. I think they’re going to play their defense."
Based on how Arkansas' offensive line has looked through three weeks, Perkins will probably be chasing Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson all day. That could play to the Hogs' advantage, though, as Pittman said they want to get their third-year starting quarterback out of the pocket more.
"Obviously we have the screen game, it hasn’t been very good," Pittman said. "If we catch the ball the other night I think we’re going to make a lot of yards on the screens.
"So you have screens, you have draws, and you have opportunities to move it. All those we have, I’m not telling you we have them in our offense to move the pocket to get 10 yards, and those are the things we have to look at."
Jefferson getting out of the pocket was a key to the last time Arkansas beat LSU. He led the Hogs with 41 rushing yards on 15 carries back in the 2021 matchup and he also delivered a 43-yard touchdown pass to Dominique Johnson in the third quarter.
"He can extend plays with the size that he brings to the position," LSU head coach Brian Kelly said on Wednesday's SEC Teleconference. "He breaks so many tackles, keeps plays alive. It forces from a defensive perspective to stay in coverage and then when he gets out, it’s getting him on the ground.
"He brings a huge dimension to what goes on from a defensive structure standpoint. You have to be so sound fundamentally. He breaks down the play and all kinds of things can happen after that. So it’ll be a great challenge that we have this Saturday with him."
From top to bottom, LSU has a more talented roster than Arkansas, but the gap might be closer than it has been in a long time. Arkansas beat itself in the loss to BYU and this team has the chance to erase that loss with an upset win on the road Saturday. According to Kelly, the Tigers are ready for the test.
"I know our guys understand who we’re playing and the tough games that we’ve had with them, including last year," Kelly said Monday. "So they’ll be prepared for that. Now it’s about preparing the right way again this week and playing with that competitive edge. So, looking forward to that."
I don't know if Arkansas is going to beat LSU on Saturday. I do think the 17.5-point spread is a little bit of an overreaction to the Hogs' loss to BYU, but Vegas also usually knows what it's talking about.
I do know that Sam Pittman has done a good job of getting his squads up for big games and there are very few examples of them losing by 17 or more points — twice in the past two seasons, to be exact.
"Losing wasn’t a wake-up call for us," Pittman said. "We would have learned if we would have won from too many penalties and all that kind of stuff. But it is LSU and it’s SEC play. I’m sure they’ll be ready. We’ll have a good game plan. But it is a special place to go, especially at night. And it’s a hard place to win, at night especially."
Arkansas and LSU are set for a 6 p.m. CT kickoff Saturday at Tiger Stadium. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.
