HawgBeat Hoops Mailbag: 1/14/25
HawgBeat analyst Jackson Collier answers reader questions in this edition of the HawgBeat Hoops Mailbag.
Arkansas basketball has limped out to a rough 0-3 start in conference play, with each loss coming to a ranked opponent. While it's not time for Razorback fans to panic yet, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned.
Many of those concerns are around the offensive side of the ball, with missed shots piling up and the half-court offense not opening up a ton of opportunities. When chances do arise, be it an open look from three, a driving lane or any other decent look, the team simply hasn't converted at a clip necessary to win basketball games.
HawgBeat ran our regular hoops mailbag series, where we answer reader questions, and the offense was the primary focus from fans and readers. We take submissions from social media and on The Trough premium message board at HawgBeat.com.
Every question posed on The Trough is answered completely, while only a select few are answered on social media. Be sure to subscribe to have your questions answered.
True or false, if Arkansas doesn’t go 2-0 this week, they will miss the NCAA Tournament. - HawgBeat user @P1Hawg
Most likely true. The Razorbacks are looking for nine conference wins. Eight could be enough given the strength of the conference plus holding a win over Michigan on a neutral floor that keeps aging very well, but it would not be a guarantee.If Arkansas does not go 2-0 this week against LSU and Missouri, it will be really difficult to see where the Razorbacks find seven-plus more wins. The remaining schedule beyond this week is pretty rough, putting it lightly: No. 23 Georgia, Oklahoma, @ No. 8 Kentucky, @ Texas, No. 4 Alabama, LSU, @ No. 11 Texas A&M, @ No. 1 Auburn, Missouri, Texas, @ South Carolina, @ Vanderbilt and No. 15 Mississippi State.
That gives the Razorbacks six more games against ranked opponents, half of them on the road, after already facing ranked opponents in each of the first three SEC games. Failing to go 2-0 this week really makes winning seven more look extremely daunting on paper. Can it be done? Sure, but going 2-0 is Arkansas' best bet of meeting that mark at this point. Each game this week is entering "must-win" territory for the Razorbacks.
What’s wrong with this team? Lack of coaching? Lack of retention by players? Leadership issues? Is the emphasis on recruiting too much and not enough X’s and O’s? Depth? - HawgBeat user @Werner-Herzhog
I think the biggest issues are that the offensive system is designed for guys to be able to get their own, and those guys are not getting their own in conference play.
Field goal percentages are down, open looks aren’t falling, layups are being missed and bad shots are being taken. Player leadership probably has something to do with it, chemistry probably has something to do with it, but at the end of the day, if guys aren’t creating and finishing in this system, it spells trouble. And that clearly hasn’t been happening.
So far, the shooting numbers for Arkansas in SEC play are abysmal, and that's the biggest issue. The Razorbacks are shooting 34.9% from the field, 20.6% from three and 65.3% from the charity stripe. Before there are any think-pieces or deep dives on what is wrong with this team, that has to be addressed first. If a team doesn't make shots in college basketball, it won't win games. That simple.
How do you address the shooting concerns? Some of it might be a slump or confidence issue. Missing wide open shots can't really be "fixed" from a tweaking or offensive set standpoint. Just have to make them. A coach can create more open looks, though.
The pick-and-roll with center Jonas Aidoo where he actually rolls to the basket and doesn't float back to the perimeter can lead to a couple of easy dunks. More of that could help in a multitude of ways. Aidoo, or whoever else may be rolling, could get an open look, or the roll man attracts a defender so Boogie Fland or DJ Wagner or whoever else is taking the screen isn't driving into a loaded paint.
Outside of that — motion, motion, motion. Watching film of this team, there is far too much standing and not enough movement. Defenses haven't had to work too hard to defend this Arkansas team away from the ball, and it shows in their ability to cut off driving lanes and recover.
All of this team's issues revolve around the offensive side of the ball right now. The Razorbacks have defended well enough to win back-to-back games against ranked opponents, but they can't throw the ball in the ocean.
What's your optimism ranking that we can use these next three games to turn the season around? - X user @Rzrbackretweet
That's tough. The next three games include two road games against bottom-tier SEC foes, plus a home stand against another ranked opponent. Winning away from home isn't easy, especially this year in this league. The "need to" ranking that Arkansas must possess is a 10 out of 10.
I think my optimism ranking that they will do that is about an 8.5 out of 10. LSU and Missouri have worse defenses than any of the three opponents the Razorbacks have played in conference so far, which should give them opportunities to find some things that work offensively and build some confidence. Hitting shots, scoring and winning all help confidence. If Arkansas can get out in transition, hit some shots, score and win against LSU to start things off, I think my optimism level goes to a 10-of-10.
Arkansas has to win two games this week, and I think the Razorbacks do that. If not, sound the alarms on the season.
What are the realistic expectations for Cal in his time at Arkansas? The national media narrative and hate is strong. - X user @HMCCL_sooey
I think the biggest adjustment I've had to make in covering the Arkansas basketball program has been the notoriety brought on by Calipari, and with that, the amount of hate it brings, as well. It's a pretty wild time, to say the least.
As far as on-the-court expectations go, it's Year 1. Fans were going to have high expectations this season because of who Calipari is and the talent he brought in. Injuries have been an unfortunate factor, along with some roster construction missteps, which have led to this slow start and deflated fan excitement. Even with the 0-3 start, I don't see this as a bad team — just a bad offense.
I anticipated a 12-6 conference record this year, and it's looking highly likely that isn't happening, but hitting nine wins will be a solid year in a loaded conference and will have the Razorbacks in the NCAA Tournament field. Moving forward, though, I think reasonable expectations are that Arkansas will be a top-five basketball program in the SEC.
One thing about Calipari is that he is always going to land talent. That's what he does. When a team has talent, it can compete against anybody, but that team can still get beat if the coaching or the production isn't there. That's what Arkansas fans are seeing now with players not scoring and the offense not being tailored to create more open looks.
Looking ahead at next year, it is a much more offensive-driven recruiting class with five-stars Meleek Thomas and Darius Acuff. Both are certified bucket-getters who can shoot from the perimeter. I think one major aspect of a Calipari-led team is that because he is so relationship-oriented, there will be more retention than Arkansas fans are accustomed to from the previous coaching staff.
Retention, talent and landing top portal prospects (who are healthy) is the recipe to winning basketball games in this landscape. There was obviously no retention in Year 1 with building an entirely new roster, but this team had talent and top portal prospects (with the two crown jewels of the class who were hurt for significant portions of the offseason).
As long as that model holds true, and Calipari is able to land talent, retain talent and land older portal players, Arkansas could be pushing for a second-weekend appearance in Year 2 and beyond. It seems like the first two boxes are already checked for next season — we will see what the portal class looks like.
