I thought I'd take a closer look at UNC to help give everyone an idea of what we're going up against. These are two very similar teams, but there are some places we can take advantage of and some places we must limit our disadvantage:
PACE
In terms of pace, UNC likes to get up and down the court much like we do. Measured in terms of possessions per 40 minutes, UNC ranks 14th in the country (whereas Arkansas ranks 17th in the country). They are a long and athletic team, and they like to use that athleticism to get out in the open floor and get easy buckets in transition. They have the most made 2pt FG's and the most made 2pt Attempts in the entire country. We MUST limit their points in transition by getting back on defense and not allowing our lackluster press to put us in undermanned situations. Anecdotally, you may have noticed that UNC's winning basket last night was a runout off of a long defensive rebound that led to an open dunk in transition. We can't allow that to happen and expect to compete.
3-PT SHOOTING
Perhaps as a consequence of playing so quickly and seeking easy baskets in transition, UNC is a hesitant 3-pt shooting team. They rank 301st in the country in 3-pointers attempted, so they really don't want to shoot from beyond the arc. And when they do they make them at a 35% clip, good for 150th in the country (for reference, Arkansas ranks 79th in 3's attempted and 139th in percentage made). That's not atrocious, but it's a big enough weakness that I think Arkansas needs to exploit it by packing the paint and forcing everyone but their PG (Marcus Paige) to shoot from outside. Of the ten guys who get regular minutes for them, only 3 shoot over 33% from long range. The key will be forcing their less comfortable shooters to put up shots, and then to rebound, which could be difficult.
REBOUNDING
North Carolina is the best rebounding team in the country, at least in raw stats. They lead the country in total rebounds and defensive rebounds, while ranking 3rd in offensive rebounds. They are great at limiting second chance points of their opponents and gaining second chance points for themselves. Bryce Johnson and Kennedy Meeks both average over 7.5 RPG and put up rebounding percentages better than our best rebounder (BP). Their other guys aren't too shabby either, especially Takoto at 5.7 a game from a SF position. We will need a total team effort on the glass, with Bobby, Alandise, Qualls and Madden all doing their best to block out and get defensive rebounds. Their numbers are likely inflated a bit because of the amount of shots they take, but we take a lot of shots too and don't have as good of rebounding numbers as they do (though we aren't that bad, with 13th overall in offensive rebounds and 35th in total rebounds in the country).
TURNOVERS
This is the key to the game, plain and simple. We will likely get outrebounded and outmuscled, so we have to make up for it by getting more possessions than them. The way to do that against UNC is turnovers, as they rank 317th in the country in turnovers at almost 13 a game. Arkansas has forced almost 16 turnovers a game (good for 8th in the country), so you would think that this would be an area Arkansas could take advantage of. Our goal should be to play them like Louisville did at the end of January, when Louisville forced 19 turnovers and caused UNC to shoot 16 3's at only 31%. Another area where we could take advantage, but haven't been lately, is at the free throw line. UNC shoots only 69% from the line (146th in the country), so hopefully that will show up on Saturday night and we will get back to what we've been doing all season (72% and 70th in the country, but higher up until the last two games).
I know this is long, but I wanted to get a better look at how we could attack and gameplan against UNC. If we can limit their fast breaks and easy buckets and can get some of our own, I think we can win this game. They are good, but have lost some games they shouldn't have this year because of turnovers and erratic play late in the the game. I think it's pretty much a tossup, if Bobby rounds back into form. Go hogs, can't wait until tomorrow night!
PACE
In terms of pace, UNC likes to get up and down the court much like we do. Measured in terms of possessions per 40 minutes, UNC ranks 14th in the country (whereas Arkansas ranks 17th in the country). They are a long and athletic team, and they like to use that athleticism to get out in the open floor and get easy buckets in transition. They have the most made 2pt FG's and the most made 2pt Attempts in the entire country. We MUST limit their points in transition by getting back on defense and not allowing our lackluster press to put us in undermanned situations. Anecdotally, you may have noticed that UNC's winning basket last night was a runout off of a long defensive rebound that led to an open dunk in transition. We can't allow that to happen and expect to compete.
3-PT SHOOTING
Perhaps as a consequence of playing so quickly and seeking easy baskets in transition, UNC is a hesitant 3-pt shooting team. They rank 301st in the country in 3-pointers attempted, so they really don't want to shoot from beyond the arc. And when they do they make them at a 35% clip, good for 150th in the country (for reference, Arkansas ranks 79th in 3's attempted and 139th in percentage made). That's not atrocious, but it's a big enough weakness that I think Arkansas needs to exploit it by packing the paint and forcing everyone but their PG (Marcus Paige) to shoot from outside. Of the ten guys who get regular minutes for them, only 3 shoot over 33% from long range. The key will be forcing their less comfortable shooters to put up shots, and then to rebound, which could be difficult.
REBOUNDING
North Carolina is the best rebounding team in the country, at least in raw stats. They lead the country in total rebounds and defensive rebounds, while ranking 3rd in offensive rebounds. They are great at limiting second chance points of their opponents and gaining second chance points for themselves. Bryce Johnson and Kennedy Meeks both average over 7.5 RPG and put up rebounding percentages better than our best rebounder (BP). Their other guys aren't too shabby either, especially Takoto at 5.7 a game from a SF position. We will need a total team effort on the glass, with Bobby, Alandise, Qualls and Madden all doing their best to block out and get defensive rebounds. Their numbers are likely inflated a bit because of the amount of shots they take, but we take a lot of shots too and don't have as good of rebounding numbers as they do (though we aren't that bad, with 13th overall in offensive rebounds and 35th in total rebounds in the country).
TURNOVERS
This is the key to the game, plain and simple. We will likely get outrebounded and outmuscled, so we have to make up for it by getting more possessions than them. The way to do that against UNC is turnovers, as they rank 317th in the country in turnovers at almost 13 a game. Arkansas has forced almost 16 turnovers a game (good for 8th in the country), so you would think that this would be an area Arkansas could take advantage of. Our goal should be to play them like Louisville did at the end of January, when Louisville forced 19 turnovers and caused UNC to shoot 16 3's at only 31%. Another area where we could take advantage, but haven't been lately, is at the free throw line. UNC shoots only 69% from the line (146th in the country), so hopefully that will show up on Saturday night and we will get back to what we've been doing all season (72% and 70th in the country, but higher up until the last two games).
I know this is long, but I wanted to get a better look at how we could attack and gameplan against UNC. If we can limit their fast breaks and easy buckets and can get some of our own, I think we can win this game. They are good, but have lost some games they shouldn't have this year because of turnovers and erratic play late in the the game. I think it's pretty much a tossup, if Bobby rounds back into form. Go hogs, can't wait until tomorrow night!
