How Arkansas can make the NCAA Tournament
HawgBeat analyst Jackson Collier looks at Arkansas' path to the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas (10-8, 1-4 SEC) has lost four of its last five games and is completely removed from any projected NCAA Tournament fields as a result.
While the product on the court has been ugly and the start has been just plain bad, there still might be a chance for the Razorbacks and head coach Eric Musselman to make the NCAA Tournament field as an at-large team.
Granted, there is always the chance Arkansas wins the SEC Tournament championship to get the automatic bid, but that has only happened once in program history, when true freshman Joe Johnson carried that team to a conference tournament title in 2000. Without eliminating that possibility, the likelihood is slim.
So, let's get down to the nitty gritty: can this team earn an at-large bid even after this bad start? The short answer is yes.
Arkansas has a great deal of tough matchups moving forward. As of today, the Razorbacks have seven Quadrant 1 games remaining on the schedule, two Quadrant 2 matchups and four games in the bottom two quadrants.
Of those seven top quadrant games, four of them are currently Quadrant 1A matchups, which is just an even more impressive type of win with heightened criteria.
NET Quad Criteria
| Quad 1A | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1-15 | 16-30 | 31-75 | 76-160 | 161-362 |
| Neutral | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-100 | 101-200 | 201-362 |
| Road | 1-40 | 41-75 | 76-135 | 136-240 | 241-362 |
Currently, the Razorbacks have just one Quadrant 1 win, with most of their losses coming in the top two quadrants, as well. So, theoretically, Arkansas should not be in a terrible position, right?
Fans unfamiliar with the NCAA Tournament selection process might think so, and rightfully so. If they were to just look at the NET, it would show that Arkansas has one very strong win against Duke and only one bad loss against UNC Greensboro.
While that is true, there are a great deal of other factors that go into determining NET, as well as other data points that aren't related to NET at all that the selection committee uses in its formula, such as efficiency metrics from KenPom, the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) and more.
Looking at a snapshot of Arkansas' NET and quadrant profile right this second, at face value it appears there is still a path to an at-large bid.
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