according to Lunardi's Bracketology. LSU losing to Auburn in the SECT dropped the Tigers down into the Last 4 In / play-in group, and as I expected, it moved Ole Miss from the top of that same list down to 3rd team. Wyoming upset San Diego State last night for the Mountain West tourney title -- the Cowboys were not going to get an at-large invite -- so it bumped all the bubble teams needing an at-large invite down a spot, and now OM is the last team on Joey Brackets' Last 4 In group.
UConn, the defending national champs, has to beat SMU to make the Dance as the AAC automatic qualifier -- also no chance of getting an at-large invite. The AACT is being played in Hartford, CN, which is effectively a home game for UConn, and the Huskies just beat SMU 2 weeks ago, so this would not really be a big upset if it were to happen. If it does, just going of Lunardi's formula, that knocks OM out.
BUT, the team he has as one of the Last 4 Byes is a team that I think should be left out. Colorado State of the Mountain West. The Rams started the season 14-0, but their best wins were at Colorado (15-17 and 7-11 for 9th place in the Pac-12) by 2 and at New Mexico State (23-10 but 17-1 and winners of the weak WAC) by 1 in OT. Then in the Mountain West against the other relevant teams (San Diego State, Boise State, and Wyoming), the Rams went 2-5 against those teams with only home wins against Boise and SDSU. They're 27-6 with an RPI of No. 30, but their resume is really not very impressive.
OM has won on the road against NCAAT teams Cincy, Oregon, and Arkansas, took Kentucky to OT in Rupp, swept Florida (not easy to do, because the Gators are still strong in RPI and BPI relative to their 16-17 record), beat a struggling Creighton team away from home (and beating the Bluejays away from home would be equal to beating Colorado away from home, which is Colorado State's best non-con win).
I think the SEC is getting 5 teams this year, and I believe Ole Miss will be that 5th team and will be in one of the play-in games. LSU will be an 11-seed and I think they'll get the last bye. Wins on the road against WVA and Arkansas -- both Top 20 -- plus a 3-0 combined record against Georgia and Ole Miss and a 2-point loss to KY will be rewarded with a bye.
UConn, the defending national champs, has to beat SMU to make the Dance as the AAC automatic qualifier -- also no chance of getting an at-large invite. The AACT is being played in Hartford, CN, which is effectively a home game for UConn, and the Huskies just beat SMU 2 weeks ago, so this would not really be a big upset if it were to happen. If it does, just going of Lunardi's formula, that knocks OM out.
BUT, the team he has as one of the Last 4 Byes is a team that I think should be left out. Colorado State of the Mountain West. The Rams started the season 14-0, but their best wins were at Colorado (15-17 and 7-11 for 9th place in the Pac-12) by 2 and at New Mexico State (23-10 but 17-1 and winners of the weak WAC) by 1 in OT. Then in the Mountain West against the other relevant teams (San Diego State, Boise State, and Wyoming), the Rams went 2-5 against those teams with only home wins against Boise and SDSU. They're 27-6 with an RPI of No. 30, but their resume is really not very impressive.
OM has won on the road against NCAAT teams Cincy, Oregon, and Arkansas, took Kentucky to OT in Rupp, swept Florida (not easy to do, because the Gators are still strong in RPI and BPI relative to their 16-17 record), beat a struggling Creighton team away from home (and beating the Bluejays away from home would be equal to beating Colorado away from home, which is Colorado State's best non-con win).
I think the SEC is getting 5 teams this year, and I believe Ole Miss will be that 5th team and will be in one of the play-in games. LSU will be an 11-seed and I think they'll get the last bye. Wins on the road against WVA and Arkansas -- both Top 20 -- plus a 3-0 combined record against Georgia and Ole Miss and a 2-point loss to KY will be rewarded with a bye.
