HawgBeat - Know the Foe: Gaining Auburn insight with AuburnSports.com
See what AuburnSports.com publisher Jay Tate had to say about Auburn ahead of its matchup with Arkansas.
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As we have done throughout this football season, HawgBeat went behind enemy lines to gain insight on the Auburn Tigers with Jay Tate of AuburnSports.com.
Here is what he had to say about Saturday's matchup between Arkansas and Auburn, which is set to kick off at 3:00 p.m. CT at Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville...
What have the Tigers fixed since the LSU game to be competitive against Ole Miss and beat Mississippi State and Vanderbilt?
Tate: Auburn still is a troubled team, though things have changed a bit during the past two weeks. Hugh Freeze has become involved with building the offensive game plan each week. He's also involved with play-calling, though we don't truly know what percentage of the plays he's actually been calling these past two weeks. My best guess is 50-60 percent.
There has been a disconnect between what Freeze wants and what the offensive coordinator, former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery, wants from the offense. I always found this odd because the head coach is the ultimate authority, right? Freeze didn't want to be that guy. He endeavors to give his assistants a LOT of autonomy and he stuck with that policy even when the offense was tripping all over itself. I guess the game at LSU, which was a mess by any measure, prompted Freeze to re-think his position on Montgomery's full autonomy.
What's been fixed? I think the sequencing is better. They're settling into a zone-run paradigm rather than flip-flopping between zone and gap in the run game. They're better at blocking zone and RB1 (Jarquez Hunter) is much better as a zone runner. Also, the pass progressions have been pared down to half-field reads, which Payton Thorne handles better. He's definitely not the star player they thought they were getting from Michigan State, but he's decent when not asked to do things he can't do. That sounds really elementary, but I'm telling you that it took more than a month to figure this out. I really don't understand why.
What are the strengths and key playmakers of Auburn's offense?
Tate: The team's best offensive playmaker is Hunter. He's a compact back, a really strong dude (powerlifting champion in high school) and quite fast in a straight line. He's a one-cut runner and doesn't have much shake at all. He will break tackles. He's a locomotive. His numbers were not good early in the season — probably because he was rusty after serving a suspension for an unknown transgression. He has 418 yards and four touchdowns during the last three games.
Thorne also is a key player because Auburn's offense is BAD when he's BAD. He gets rattled too easily, mentally rattled, and then gets tentative. He also likes to escape pressure laterally rather than stepping up into the pocket and considering downfield options. With that said, Thorne is actually a pretty good runner in the zone-read game. He also understands the need to alter velocity based on the window or situation. He's a nuanced passer. If he had some decent wideouts to catch his passes, Thorne would have pretty good numbers. He doesn't have decent wideouts.
What are the strengths and key playmakers of Auburn's defense?
Tate: Auburn's defense is better than its offense. I'd say the best player is nickel Keionte Scott, who is rangy enough to defend slots yet also is pretty good against the run as well. He's a team leader and ALWAYS answers the bell when it's time to buckle down and make a hit on third down, you know?
Middle linebacker Austin Keys, a transfer from Ole Miss, missed a lot of time early in the season with a leg injury. He's back now and he's playing really, really well. He's a hard hitter with a lot of range for a Mike 'backer. He was amazing in the game against Mississippi State.
Safety Jaylin Simpson is an NFL player. Defensive tackle Marcus Harris is an NFL player, too.
How do you think the game will play out and what's your score prediction?
Tate: I've been covering Auburn since 1998, which means I've seen a whole lot of miserable performances in Fayetteville. Well, miserable for the Tigers. So when Auburn heads that way, I expect calamity.
Auburn definitely is playing better football, but I can say the exact same thing about Arkansas after that transformative performance last week. Is that the new/current Arkansas? I think 28 points wins the game Saturday. I don't think I trust Auburn to score 28. I don't think I trust Arkansas to score 28. So we're in a bit of a pickle here, aren't we?
I'll take the Hogs by a score of 21-18 — a field goal from Cam Little getting Arkansas ahead late and Auburn's final retort falling short after Auburn's slot receiver runs a 7-yard sticks route on 4th-and-9. Pass complete. Game over.
Score prediction: Arkansas 21, Auburn 18
