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Michigan scout + Arkansas keys to victory

jacksoncollier

Hawgbert Financial Expert
Staff
Dec 22, 2018
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Little Rock, AR
Arkansas and Michigan tonight. Big game for both teams, but arguably more important for the Razorbacks, so how do they come away with a win? Brief scouting report and breakdown:

First, Michigan is going to attack with their two bigs, Goldin and Wolf. Wolf can and will play on the perimeter and is versatile at how he attacks the defense. Can do a post-iso, cut/curl, and move around on the wing for knockdown jumpers. He's a catch and shoot threat with the ability to facilitate when the defense focuses on him. Goldin is a more "true" interior big with more post-iso skills but is a gifted passer down low. Those two guys really make things go offensively.

To add to them, though, Donaldson is quick, quick, quick. He's probably the Wolverines' only major isolation threat in the backcourt, but is dangerous. He utilizes ball screens well and sometimes doesn't even need them to get passed his defender and to the rim.

When Michigan's offense is at its best, the Wolverines are doing one of (or all) three things: (1) getting to the rim with one of the three players mentioned above in isolation situations, (2) running a pick and roll offense and scoring at the rim or midrange level, or (3) keeping the defense off balance by creating mismatches and utilizing ball reversals to knock down open threes.

All of those have the potential to spell trouble for the Razorbacks. The Wolverines have 4-5 knock down shooters to worry about on those ball screens and ball reversals, including Donaldson.

The offense isn't perfect, though. They have a tendency to turn the ball over (15.1 per game) and the Razorbacks thrive on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition.

Arkansas' best bet to stopping this offense is to force turnovers and getting major minutes from Aidoo, Thiero, and Wagner on the defensive side of the ball. Thiero's versatility has the potential to make Wolf work harder than normal for his shots, while Aidoo has been one of the top interior defenders in the SEC when healthy for a while now. Wagner, or Fland, also really have to prevent Donaldson from getting to the cup and playing hounding defense on the perimeter.

Defensively, Michigan is pretty solid, but have issues in pick and roll themselves. Iowa utilized standard ball screens to get to the basket almost at-will. Wolverines play drop coverage and sometimes will switch, which the Hawkeyes used to get the Michigan bigs on Iowa's guards in isolation situations.

They also have a tendency to over help when the ball goes in the paint. Arkansas loves to get downhill and get in the paint with their guards, which at times has led to tough, contested shots at the rim or in the midrange. The backside corner/wing should be open if Arkansas can get penetration - just have to be able to make the pass.

A lot of times this over helping leads to giving up offensive rebounds. Michigan is allowing 12.9 offensive rebounds per game, which is one of the worst marks nationally. Arkansas is one of the worst teams nationally at earning offensive rebounds, so something's gotta give. Thiero could notch a chunk of extra possessions and baskets for the Hogs on the offensive glass with his effort and athleticism.

The Wolverines don't put opponents on the free throw line a ton, allowing just 15.4 free throw attempts per game, while Arkansas is taking 18.0 FTAs per game, led primarily by Thiero.

The Razorbacks can score on this defense using Iowa's gameplan: utilizing ball screens, creating extra possessions on the offensive glass, and scoring in transition. If Fland and Wagner can get downhill and Davis and others can knock down shots on the perimeter, it gives the Razorbacks a great shot at a win tonight.

All this said, there are a few keys to the game Arkansas has to check off in order to win:

1) Communicate on defense
- Absolutely cannot get beat in the pick and roll game off blown assignments and lack of communication. Have to be very fundamentally sound.

2) Force turnovers
- Arkansas' offense is at its best when the defense is forcing turnovers and the offense can get out and run. With the Wolverines struggling in that department, the Hogs have to take advantage.

3) Finish at the rim
- Might seem simple but the Michigan defense has a tendency to allow guards to get to the rim but will contest those shots heavily. Have to finish through the contests and through contact.

4) Earn extra possessions on the offensive glass
- It's one of the worst areas of Michigan's team, allowing offensive rebounds. Have to attack that and take advantage of that.
 
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