Running back is my favorite position in football, and pro football is my favorite sport ... so, with 2 Hog RBs expected to go anywhere from Round 2 to Round 5, this is as excited I've been about the NFL Draft since 2008 when DMAC, Felix, and Hillis all got selected.
And now that the Senior Bowl, combine, and pro days are behind them, AC and JWill can focus on individual workouts with interested teams between now and the draft. I think up to half of the NFL's 32 teams could draft a RB this year. In 2015, only 7 RBs ran for more than 1,000 yards, which was an unusually low number attributed mostly to injuries, but also because of more RBBC systems in a pass-happy league. Free agency has seen most of the high-profile RBs sign in the last couple of weeks, so team needs at the position are becoming more clear going into the draft.
So, here's my take on AC's and JWill's draft prospects, and I hope others weigh in on what they think about the best team, need, and system fits and round-potential for them, as well as the other Hogs who should be drafted (HH, BA, ST, and DK).
* Alex Collins ... his 40-time that he ran at the combine was not horrible (4.59), he improved his vertical by 4 inches (going from his combine number of 28.5 to his pro day number of 32.5), his pass-catching drills were not good at the combine, but were better at his pro day, his cone-drill / field-drill work was good ... lack of HR speed, fumbling, lack of pass-catching, and inconsistency as a blocker are all part of AC's 3-year resume as a Hog, but so are 3 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons that put him in elite SEC company among RBs ... he also proved to be durable / reliable to stay on the field, he had elite quick, lateral cuts while moving forward, his vision and ability to make defenders take tough tackling angles on him allowed him to fall forward and pick up yards after contact while minimizing the contact, and he did a much better job with leg-drive through tackles to move the pile as a junior. Lots of positives.
AC is probably a 1st and 2nd down runner, and not an every-down / 3-down back. That's okay, because the NFL has a lot of RBBC systems, and I see AC being like a Chris Ivory, Benjarvis Green-Ellis, or Alfred Morris -- guys who can stay on the field and give you good, consistent production on 1st and 2nd downs before giving way to a more versatile back on 3rd downs.
Some mocks have him as a 2nd-round back, but I'm thinking 3rd round is most likely, possibly 4th but doubt he slips that far.
Lots of NFL teams needing a back like AC. For example, New England is a team that likes to employ 3 or 4 RBs with different strengths. Guys like BGE, Blount and Bolden have been more of the runners in recent years, while Lewis, Vereen, and Woodhead were more of the receiver-out-of-the-backfield / 3rd-down guys. AC would be a good fit in NE. I also think he could be a good fit in places like Indy, Miami, and Philadelphia. All of those teams will likely draft a RB fairly early (top 2-3 rounds), and there are a baker's dozen more NFL teams that should or could address RB at some point in this draft -- Dallas, Washington, the Giants, the Jets, Seattle, Carolina, Denver, Oakland, Detroit, San Diego, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Chicago all come to mind.
* Jonathan Williams ... missing 2015 hurt his draft stock, as did missing opportunities during Senior Bowl week and the combine. He did run his 40 (4.55) and some field drills at his pro day, but was it enough to overcome the question marks for a guy who will not have competed in nearly 20 months when he finally steps onto an NFL field in pads? JWill is an every-down back, deceptively quick and shifty for a powerful runner, finishes runs with power and moves a pile, enough speed to break some long runs, gifted as a receiver out of the backfield, a willing but inconsistent blocker in pass-pro, and has had some fumbling issues of his own. Runs a bit too upright, but he'll learn to lower his pad level if he wants to make it in the NFL.
Comparisons are Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Fred Jackson, and David Johnson -- all are physical backs with a versatile arsenal of running and pass-catching skills, all are deceptively agile/quick/shifty but not blazers, and all have a nose for the end zone once their team gets into the red zone.
JWill is probably a 4th or 5th round pick, but if fully healthy, is a 2nd or 3rd round value. I'm not certain there are 5 RBs better than him in this draft, regardless of how many get drafted ahead of him.
New England, Indianapolis, Miami, Dallas, Carolina, Seattle, Washington, Philly, and New Orleans would all be wonderful fits for JWill.
And now that the Senior Bowl, combine, and pro days are behind them, AC and JWill can focus on individual workouts with interested teams between now and the draft. I think up to half of the NFL's 32 teams could draft a RB this year. In 2015, only 7 RBs ran for more than 1,000 yards, which was an unusually low number attributed mostly to injuries, but also because of more RBBC systems in a pass-happy league. Free agency has seen most of the high-profile RBs sign in the last couple of weeks, so team needs at the position are becoming more clear going into the draft.
So, here's my take on AC's and JWill's draft prospects, and I hope others weigh in on what they think about the best team, need, and system fits and round-potential for them, as well as the other Hogs who should be drafted (HH, BA, ST, and DK).
* Alex Collins ... his 40-time that he ran at the combine was not horrible (4.59), he improved his vertical by 4 inches (going from his combine number of 28.5 to his pro day number of 32.5), his pass-catching drills were not good at the combine, but were better at his pro day, his cone-drill / field-drill work was good ... lack of HR speed, fumbling, lack of pass-catching, and inconsistency as a blocker are all part of AC's 3-year resume as a Hog, but so are 3 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons that put him in elite SEC company among RBs ... he also proved to be durable / reliable to stay on the field, he had elite quick, lateral cuts while moving forward, his vision and ability to make defenders take tough tackling angles on him allowed him to fall forward and pick up yards after contact while minimizing the contact, and he did a much better job with leg-drive through tackles to move the pile as a junior. Lots of positives.
AC is probably a 1st and 2nd down runner, and not an every-down / 3-down back. That's okay, because the NFL has a lot of RBBC systems, and I see AC being like a Chris Ivory, Benjarvis Green-Ellis, or Alfred Morris -- guys who can stay on the field and give you good, consistent production on 1st and 2nd downs before giving way to a more versatile back on 3rd downs.
Some mocks have him as a 2nd-round back, but I'm thinking 3rd round is most likely, possibly 4th but doubt he slips that far.
Lots of NFL teams needing a back like AC. For example, New England is a team that likes to employ 3 or 4 RBs with different strengths. Guys like BGE, Blount and Bolden have been more of the runners in recent years, while Lewis, Vereen, and Woodhead were more of the receiver-out-of-the-backfield / 3rd-down guys. AC would be a good fit in NE. I also think he could be a good fit in places like Indy, Miami, and Philadelphia. All of those teams will likely draft a RB fairly early (top 2-3 rounds), and there are a baker's dozen more NFL teams that should or could address RB at some point in this draft -- Dallas, Washington, the Giants, the Jets, Seattle, Carolina, Denver, Oakland, Detroit, San Diego, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Chicago all come to mind.
* Jonathan Williams ... missing 2015 hurt his draft stock, as did missing opportunities during Senior Bowl week and the combine. He did run his 40 (4.55) and some field drills at his pro day, but was it enough to overcome the question marks for a guy who will not have competed in nearly 20 months when he finally steps onto an NFL field in pads? JWill is an every-down back, deceptively quick and shifty for a powerful runner, finishes runs with power and moves a pile, enough speed to break some long runs, gifted as a receiver out of the backfield, a willing but inconsistent blocker in pass-pro, and has had some fumbling issues of his own. Runs a bit too upright, but he'll learn to lower his pad level if he wants to make it in the NFL.
Comparisons are Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Fred Jackson, and David Johnson -- all are physical backs with a versatile arsenal of running and pass-catching skills, all are deceptively agile/quick/shifty but not blazers, and all have a nose for the end zone once their team gets into the red zone.
JWill is probably a 4th or 5th round pick, but if fully healthy, is a 2nd or 3rd round value. I'm not certain there are 5 RBs better than him in this draft, regardless of how many get drafted ahead of him.
New England, Indianapolis, Miami, Dallas, Carolina, Seattle, Washington, Philly, and New Orleans would all be wonderful fits for JWill.
