Scouting the Alabama Crimson Tide
HawgBeat provides an in-depth look at the challenge Alabama presents for Arkansas.
Really good stuff from @Jamesonevers
After another heartbreaking 27-20 loss to Ole Miss last weekend, Arkansas must shift its attention to a road tilt with the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama is coming off a tough 26-20 road win in College Station against Texas A&M — a game in which neither team could run the ball, convert a third down or avoid taking a sack. Both teams combined for 90 rushing yards, 11 sacks and a measly 33.3% on third-down conversions.
The Razorbacks had similar issues against the Rebels last Saturday, as they posted a season-low grade in rushing according to Pro Football Focus (63.2) and were sacked five times.
Arkansas will make the trip to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, as 19.5-point underdogs according to BetSaracen. The Hogs have a tall mountain to climb on Saturday in Bryant-Denny Stadium starting at 11:00 a.m. CT.
Here is what to expect from the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday morning…
Alabama Resume
Coach: Nick Saban (17th season)
Record: 5-1, 3-0 SEC
Last Week: 26-20 win vs Texas A&M
Offensive Coordinator: Tommy Rees
Offensive Scheme: 12 personnel dropback/power run game
Defensive Coordinator: Kevin Steele
Defensive Scheme: 4-2-5, man-to-man
Tale of the Tape
As previously stated, Alabama played in a slugfest against Texas A&M last week, as neither team could get much going in the run game. The Crimson Tide ran the ball 26 times for a season-low 23 rushing yards. Even when accounting for the five sacks, Alabama still only managed 54 rushing yards on 21 attempts.
If you take a look at all of the stats, Alabama was both on-brand and uncharacteristic in the way they beat the Aggies. The defense suffocated the Aggies' run game (67 total yards) and held Texas A&M to 306 yards of total offense.
However, the Crimson Tide had a soul-crushing 14 penalties, were sacked six times and lost the turnover battle 2-1.
Strengths
Pass coverage - Alabama has one of the best coverage units in college football with a PFF coverage grade of 94.1. The group is led by likely future first-round NFL Draft pick and junior cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, true-freshman safety Caleb Downs and junior defensive back Terrion Arnold.
The unit has made life difficult on opposing offense, as they've allowed just six passing touchdowns and have recorded seven interceptions. Their 193.3 passing yards allowed per game ranks 28th in the country, so it could be a rough day at the office for Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson Saturday morning.
Run defense - On top of having an elite pass defense, the Crimson Tide also boast one of the nation's best run defenses. The group has allowed just 3.1 yards per carry on average and have a run defense grade of 91.0 according to PFF.
Those numbers are particularly impressive when accounting for the fact that Alabama typically plays with two high safeties, which normally lends itself to a weaker run defense. The Crimson Tide don't rely on stunts and movements along their defensive line like Ole Miss did last week against the Hogs. Instead, they lean on sheer power and discipline in a way no one else can.
Wide receivers - Alabama had a dominant run with wide receivers from 2019-21 with players like Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle all drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.
Though this year's crop of receivers isn't as dynamic, it's still a solid group overall. Led by Jermaine Burton — who collected 197 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Aggies last week — Alabama's wide receivers average an SEC second-best 14.58 yards per reception.
Weaknesses
Sacks - Alabama ranks 125th in the country and 13th in the SEC in sacks allowed with 26 total. Some of this can be attributed to the offensive line, which sports a less-than-stellar 67.6 pass block grade according to PFF.
Another factor to consider is Jalen Milroe, who ranks first in the SEC amongst starting quarterbacks in average time to throw (3.41 seconds) and has the worst pressure-to-sack rate in the FBS (38.6%).
Run game - There isn't a single running back on the Crimson Tide's roster that's averaging more than 5.0 yards per carry. With a team average sitting at 3.7 yards per carry, it's fair to say that Alabama is struggling in the department.
As with most offensive issues, the lack of a rushing attack stems from the offensive line — which has an average run-blocking grade of 72.4 according to PFF.
Prediction
I don't have a ton of confidence in the Hogs this weekend. I think the Arkansas defense has the talent to keep the Crimson Tide down on offense for a while, but I don't see a real path for the Razorbacks' offense to move the ball consistently against a high-caliber Crimson Tide defense.
Alabama 34, Arkansas 14
