HawgBeat - Scouting the Auburn Tigers
HawgBeat provides an in-depth look at the challenge Auburn presents for Arkansas.
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After a huge road win in Gainesville, the Razorbacks will return to Reynolds Razorback Stadium this Saturday for a clash with the Auburn Tigers.
Arkansas is coming off by far its best offensive showing of the season, which featured 481 yards and 39 points against the Gators last week.
Auburn is coming off a fairly convincing win in Nashville against Vanderbilt, overcoming the Commodores 31-15.
The Razorbacks are favored by 2.5 points (BetSaracen), and they have to have a win to keep postseason hopes alive. Auburn will enter Fayetteville looking to become bowl eligible after missing out last year.
Here is what to expect from the Auburn Tigers this Saturday
Auburn Resume
Coach: Hugh Freeze (1st season)Record: 5-5
Last Week: 31-15 Win vs Vanderbilt
Offensive Coordinator: Philip Montgomery
Offensive Scheme: 11 Personnel Zone Running Game, RPO
Defensive Coordinator: Ron Roberts
Defensive Scheme: 4-2-5
Tale of the tape
Auburn is a team with an identity that is they are going to run the ball no matter who you are. Auburn went through its first five games against Power 5 teams without having 100 net passing yards. Being very ground and pound might not always have been the identity of a Hugh Freeze coached team, but it has helped Auburn overcome some of its own limitations in order to be on the cusp of bowl eligibility.
Defensively, Auburn is a solid, yet unspectacular unit. The Tigers have been really good against teams that struggle through the air, with the likes of California and Mississippi State struggling to move the ball. Against teams that can really sling it, there has been room to roam. LSU lit up Auburn for 538 total yards and 48 points. Georgia had similar success with 28 points and 428 total yards.
Strengths
Red Zone Defense- The Tiger defense has been at its best with its backs against the wall, in particular keeping opponents out of the red zone. Auburn has allowed a touchdown on just 50% of its opponents red zone trips.
Auburn is allowing opponents to rush for just 3.1 yards per carry on red zone runs, and it has only allowed just 30% of opponents passes to be complete in the red zone. Once teams have gotten into the red zone, it has really been a tough time against Auburn, and with Arkansas’ own red zone struggles, we could see a lot of kicker Cam Little on Saturday.
Running Game - As stated earlier, Auburn is going to run the ball against anyone, and the Tigers have yet to be completely stopped. Auburn has averaged at least four yards per carry against every team, averaging over five yards per carry in half its games, and almost eight last week against Vanderbilt.
Auburn’s rushing attack is spearheaded by running back Jarquez Hunter, who has averaged almost six yards per carry on the season, and quarterback Peyton Thorne, who has averaged 6.5 yards per carry when taking sacks out of the equation.
Pass Coverage - Outside of being blow torched by LSU, which happens to everyone at this point, Auburn has been really solid in pass coverage this year. The Tigers have posted a coverage grade north of 68 in every game besides LSU and Ole Miss, with a season coverage grade of 90.5, per Pro Football Focus. The entire secondary is grading well, in particular safety Jaylin Simpson and corner D.J. James, who both have coverage grades of at least 86, which is in the top-10 of SEC defensive players.
Weaknesses
Early Down Run Defense - While overall not a weakness, Auburn’s run defense on first down leaves something to be desired. Auburn has allowed just under five yards per carry, with just over 20% of first down runs going for another first down. While five yards per carry isn’t the worst, a 20% conversion rate on first down is quite high, and could help Arkansas keep its ground game going after a big improvement last week from the Hogs.
Sacks - Arkansas has faced multiple quarterbacks who struggle with holding onto the ball too much, but Auburn is the worst one yet. Peyton Throne has taken a sack on a preposterous 35% of his pressured drop backs, which is worst in the SEC, and would be the worst by a quarterback who has played the majority of his teams snaps since 2020, when Tommy Devito took a sack on 42% of his pressured drop backs at Syracuse.
Auburn doesn’t have the best pass blocking unit, with a team pass blocking grade that ranks sixth worst in the SEC, but the majority of the blame should be placed squarely on the shoulders of Thorne.
Prediction
Auburn is a solid team for sure, but I think this is one of the best matchups Arkansas has this year in the SEC. The Arkansas defense has been really good all year, with no team truly being able to dominate them on the ground, and the Razorback offense should be able to build on the rediscovered ground game they found last week. Auburn has shown the ability to keep games close against teams better than Arkansas, but I would lean toward the Razorbacks in the match up
Arkansas 24, Auburn 21
