From @Jamesonevers
arkansas.rivals.com
After a much-needed bye week, Arkansas (2-6, 0-5 SEC) will be on the road this week against the Florida Gators (5-3, 3-2 SEC) in Gainesville, Florida.
The Gators are coming off a shellacking by the Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville, a game in which Florida gave up 36 straight points after taking a 7-0 lead. Getting leveled by the Bulldogs is an understandable outcome, one that almost every team in America would be expected to have, including the Hogs.
Arkansas heads to Gainesville as 4.5-point underdogs (BetSaracen), in what looks to be a fairly competitive game, as almost every Arkansas game has been this season. Five of the six losses for the Razorbacks this season have been by one possession.
Florida is 6-7 under second-year head coach Billy Napier in the SEC, and 9-2 at home overall. Arkansas is 10-21 in SEC games under head coach Sam Pittman, and 6-13 away from home.
Here is a preview of what to expect from the Florida Gators on Saturday...
Coach: Billy Napier (2nd season)
Record: 5-3
Last Week: 43-20 Loss vs Georgia
Offensive Coordinator: Rob Sale
Offensive Scheme: 11 personnel zone running game, RPO
Defensive Coordinator: Austin Armstrong
Defensive Scheme: 4-2-5
Running Game Explosiveness - Florida might not have the best raw yards per carry number, but they certainly have an explosive running game. Florida has had 40 runs of 10+ yards this season, with just under 20% of their runs going for 10+ yards. The Florida run game is led by Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr., who average 6.0 and 5.6 yards per carry, respectively. Florida also had one of the best rushing performances against the Georgia defense you will find, as the Gators averaged 7.3 yards per carry on designed runs.
Princely Umanmielen - A likely first round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, and likely the best player on the Gators, Umanmielen has been a monster so far this season. Although Umanmielen has only collected three sacks, he has a 90.6 pass rush grade, 33 pressures and a pass rush win rate of 28.6% — all top-10 in the country, per PFF. Umanmielen is currently the engine of a Florida pass rush that is good, not great. If given the chance, he can wreck the game.
Ricky Pearsall - One of the better receivers in the SEC, Ricky Persall can do a little bit of everything for the Gator offense. He has almost double the amount of receiving yards as the next highest Gator, and is fifth in the SEC in total receiving yards (718). Pearsall has almost a perfect 50-50 split between lining up in the slot and playing outside, with 53% of his snaps in the slot and 45% of his snaps outside. Finally, Pearsall can be explosive, averaging over 14.5 yards per catch, and with 72% of his catches going for a first down
Receiver Depth - With as good as Pearsall is, the rest of the Gator receiving core leaves something to be desired. That group doesn't have the same pop as Pearsall, averaging 9.7 yards per reception, a good but not great number. The Gator offense has struggled more when teams are able to take away Pearsall, with forcing someone else to beat you being a preferable strategy for opposing teams.
Tackling - Although not necessarily a season long problem, when it has gone poorly for the Florida defense, tackling has been an issue. Against Kentucky, the Gators missed 17 tackles, per PFF, and they have missed over 70 tackles on the season. The Gators have games with lower missed tackle numbers, including last week against Georgia, when they missed only seven tackles. Overall, binging opposing ball carries down has been an issue before for this Florida defense.
Pass Coverage - While not the worst group you can find, the Florida secondary has certainly had its fair share of struggles, particularly in the SEC. In Florida’s last two games, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Georgia's Carson Beck threw for at least 310 yards, and combined to throw six touchdowns compared to just one interception. Both Rattler and Beck averaged over 10 yards per attempt and led very productive offenses, with South Carolina scoring 39 and Georgia scoring 43.
Arkansas is mercifully breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Kenny Guiton — a move that should hopefully bring some much-needed life into what had been a mostly dormant offense.
Expecting a huge performance from the offense is probably too much too ask, but I think the Razorbacks defense should be able to keep it close most of the afternoon, with a chance for the Hogs to win it in the end.
All that said, I'll still pick Florida to win a close game Saturday.
Florida 27, Arkansas 21
HawgBeat - Scouting the Florida Gators
HawgBeat provides an in-depth look at the challenge Florida presents for Arkansas.
arkansas.rivals.com
After a much-needed bye week, Arkansas (2-6, 0-5 SEC) will be on the road this week against the Florida Gators (5-3, 3-2 SEC) in Gainesville, Florida.
The Gators are coming off a shellacking by the Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville, a game in which Florida gave up 36 straight points after taking a 7-0 lead. Getting leveled by the Bulldogs is an understandable outcome, one that almost every team in America would be expected to have, including the Hogs.
Arkansas heads to Gainesville as 4.5-point underdogs (BetSaracen), in what looks to be a fairly competitive game, as almost every Arkansas game has been this season. Five of the six losses for the Razorbacks this season have been by one possession.
Florida is 6-7 under second-year head coach Billy Napier in the SEC, and 9-2 at home overall. Arkansas is 10-21 in SEC games under head coach Sam Pittman, and 6-13 away from home.
Here is a preview of what to expect from the Florida Gators on Saturday...
Florida Resume
Coach: Billy Napier (2nd season)
Record: 5-3
Last Week: 43-20 Loss vs Georgia
Offensive Coordinator: Rob Sale
Offensive Scheme: 11 personnel zone running game, RPO
Defensive Coordinator: Austin Armstrong
Defensive Scheme: 4-2-5
Strengths
Running Game Explosiveness - Florida might not have the best raw yards per carry number, but they certainly have an explosive running game. Florida has had 40 runs of 10+ yards this season, with just under 20% of their runs going for 10+ yards. The Florida run game is led by Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr., who average 6.0 and 5.6 yards per carry, respectively. Florida also had one of the best rushing performances against the Georgia defense you will find, as the Gators averaged 7.3 yards per carry on designed runs.
Princely Umanmielen - A likely first round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, and likely the best player on the Gators, Umanmielen has been a monster so far this season. Although Umanmielen has only collected three sacks, he has a 90.6 pass rush grade, 33 pressures and a pass rush win rate of 28.6% — all top-10 in the country, per PFF. Umanmielen is currently the engine of a Florida pass rush that is good, not great. If given the chance, he can wreck the game.
Ricky Pearsall - One of the better receivers in the SEC, Ricky Persall can do a little bit of everything for the Gator offense. He has almost double the amount of receiving yards as the next highest Gator, and is fifth in the SEC in total receiving yards (718). Pearsall has almost a perfect 50-50 split between lining up in the slot and playing outside, with 53% of his snaps in the slot and 45% of his snaps outside. Finally, Pearsall can be explosive, averaging over 14.5 yards per catch, and with 72% of his catches going for a first down
Weaknesses
Receiver Depth - With as good as Pearsall is, the rest of the Gator receiving core leaves something to be desired. That group doesn't have the same pop as Pearsall, averaging 9.7 yards per reception, a good but not great number. The Gator offense has struggled more when teams are able to take away Pearsall, with forcing someone else to beat you being a preferable strategy for opposing teams.
Tackling - Although not necessarily a season long problem, when it has gone poorly for the Florida defense, tackling has been an issue. Against Kentucky, the Gators missed 17 tackles, per PFF, and they have missed over 70 tackles on the season. The Gators have games with lower missed tackle numbers, including last week against Georgia, when they missed only seven tackles. Overall, binging opposing ball carries down has been an issue before for this Florida defense.
Pass Coverage - While not the worst group you can find, the Florida secondary has certainly had its fair share of struggles, particularly in the SEC. In Florida’s last two games, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Georgia's Carson Beck threw for at least 310 yards, and combined to throw six touchdowns compared to just one interception. Both Rattler and Beck averaged over 10 yards per attempt and led very productive offenses, with South Carolina scoring 39 and Georgia scoring 43.
Prediction
Arkansas is mercifully breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Kenny Guiton — a move that should hopefully bring some much-needed life into what had been a mostly dormant offense.
Expecting a huge performance from the offense is probably too much too ask, but I think the Razorbacks defense should be able to keep it close most of the afternoon, with a chance for the Hogs to win it in the end.
All that said, I'll still pick Florida to win a close game Saturday.
Florida 27, Arkansas 21
