Lately I'll admit I've let myself be worried by some of the "sky is falling" posts here about the way this football class is shaping up. I scratched my head at signing a 2 star TE when we are loaded at that spot. And I definitely worry about needing to sign 2 stud RBs to take over for AC and J-Will. But in looking back at the recruiting classes over the last 12 years or so, I find some data points that are re-assuring.
Bottom line, I feel a little better both in terms of number of commits we have at this point and the rating of those commits. CBB and staff are going to bring in another solid class, and there are still some guys out there that we have a good shot at. Would we all be happier if we had Bama's talent level every year? Sure. And maybe we can get closer to that, but it's going to take a foundation, and it looks like this class is shaping up to be another solid part of that foundation.
- We are sitting at 2.91 avg stars right now with 11 commits. Granted last year we finished at 3.26, but the 2014 and 2013 classes were both 2.96, and we are very happy with those classes have panned out.
- In fact, since 2002 (as far back as I can find on this site) we've had two classes that averaged 3.26: 2015 and 2009, which was CBP's first full class and his best. A few years we've averaged just over 3, but most years it's been between 2.8 and 3.0. We're sitting right there.
- As for the number of commits, looking at past classes it doesn't seem to be cause for alarm. One week into July we have 11 out of what looks like it will be a 22 person class (50% full). In 2015 at this point we had 10 of 23, in 2014 we had 6 of 24, in 2013 we had 3 of 23. Going back to that 2009 class, we only had 4 of 31. Our best classes have filled in later.
- Stars are good, but don't tell you about ratings within a star. When I look at Rivals points per recruit, we're sitting at 79.3 right now. That's below last year's 90, but very close to the 2013 and 2014, which finished around 83-84 per recruit. I think we are still in play for some big names, and landing a guy like Agim, one or two of our top RB targets, and another one or two stud O-linemen (which we've done consistently late in the process) will get us back up into the mid 80s or higher. That will be 4 consecutive, consistent years of recruiting solid talent.
Bottom line, I feel a little better both in terms of number of commits we have at this point and the rating of those commits. CBB and staff are going to bring in another solid class, and there are still some guys out there that we have a good shot at. Would we all be happier if we had Bama's talent level every year? Sure. And maybe we can get closer to that, but it's going to take a foundation, and it looks like this class is shaping up to be another solid part of that foundation.
