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Hoops Where Arkansas basketball's analytics rank with SEC play looming

DanielFair

Football Recruiting Analyst
Staff
Dec 6, 2019
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The Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2, 0-0 SEC) are in the midst of a four-game win streak with just two non-conference matchups left before Southeastern Conference play starts on Jan. 4.

Last week, the Razorbacks took home a win over then-No. 14 Michigan at Madison Square Garden before they went to North Little Rock and dismantled in-state foe Central Arkansas.

The wins boosted the Hogs in the analytics rankings, which will be vital when it comes to NCAA Tournament selection and seeding. The AP Top 25 Poll still left Arkansas out on Monday.

As of Tuesday, Arkansas sits at No. 40 in the KenPom rankings. The Hogs started the season No. 25 and steadily dropped over the first few weeks of the season, but they've stayed in the 40-range for the last few weeks.

Arkansas offensive efficiency margin is +16.91. Its offensive efficiency margin is 113.4, which is ranked No. 58, while the defensive efficiency margin is at 96.5, good for 23rd.

The NET rankings made their debut on Dec. 2 and Arkansas started at No. 51. The Hogs dropped to No. 53 a week later, but after the string of victories is at No. 47.

This ranking evaluates game results, strength of schedule, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. It breaks wins and losses into four quadrants, and is based on game location and the opponents' NET rankings.

— Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
— Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
— Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
— Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

The NCAA website says the number of Quad 1 wins and Quad 3 and 4 losses will be "incredibly important" for NCAA Tournament selection and seeding.

Right now, Arkansas is 1-2 in Quad 1 games, 0-0 in Quad 2 games, 3-0 in Quad 3 and 4-0 in Quad 4. There will be ample opportunities for the Razorbacks to notch big wins, as there are 12 SEC teams ahead of them in the NET rankings.

From a statistics perspective, Arkansas' offensive numbers have seen an uptick since our last update. The Hogs' field goal percentage jumped 1.1% to 50.9, which is good for sixth in the nation. The three-point percentage also jumped to 37.2% which is good for third in the SEC behind Auburn and Texas.

One interesting development has been the Razorbacks' assist numbers. Arkansas is now averaging 15.6 assists per game, a 0.8 APG jump from the last update. That jump could be attributed to Saturday's game against UCA, when the Hogs had 23 assists on 33 made buckets.

Where Arkansas needs to improve is in the free throw department. The Hogs are shooting 71% from the charity stripe on 17.5 attempts per game, which is 189th in the nation. Missed free throws made wins over Miami and Michigan much more difficult, as forward Adou Thiero missed two against Miami at the end of the game and Trevon Brazile missed two in the final minute against Michigan.

Thiero’s missed free throws would have pushed the Razorbacks' lead to two possessions against Miami and Brazile’s would have given Arkansas a three-point lead over Michigan.

Luckily for the Hogs, the outcome was still a win, but tightening up the free throw shooting will make things a lot easier for Arkansas once conference play starts.

Below is a closer look at some of the numbers for the Razorbacks...

Rankings​

AP: Unranked
Coaches: Unranked
NET: 47
KenPom: 40
BartTorvik: 42
EvanMiya: 34

Stats (Rank)​

Scoring offense: 80.5 (77)
Scoring defense: 65.6 (54)
Assists: 15.6 (95)
Field goal percentage: 50.9 (6)
3-point percentage: 37.2 (68)
Free throw percentage: 71 (189)
Rebounds: 35.5 (235)
Blocks: 5 (32)
Steals: 8.9 (51)

KenPom​

KenPom Analytics (Rank)
CategoryOffenseDefense
Adj. Efficiency113.4 (58)96.5 (23)
Avg. Poss. Length16.1 (64)17.4 (204)
Effective FG%57.8 (17)48.2 (97)
Turnover%17.6 (172)20.8 (60)
Off. Reb%27.5 (251)22.6 (6)
FTA/FGA29.8 (263)23.1 (11)
3P%37.2 (65)30.7 (86)
2P%58.9 (24)49.9 (152)
FT%71 (192)70.9 (157)
Block%5.9 (15)15.4 (15)
Steal%9.4 (159)12.5 (40)
Non-Stl TO%8.2 (200)8.3 (138)
 
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