Why December metrics matter for Arkansas
Arkansas' had great success late in the season and postseason recently, but the numbers suggest that might not happen.
Arkansas is over a third of the way through the 2023-2024 basketball season, and to this point, the season has not gone the way of preseason expectations.
Rather than being ranked in the top-25 and competing for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Razorbacks are not receiving any votes in the AP Poll and they're out of most projected fields by respected bracketologists.
A lot has been made of the struggles of the season, from film breakdowns, diagnosing consistent issues throughout the season, and even head coach Eric Musselman saying that this team does not have similar characteristics of other teams under him that have turned seasons around.
There is a chunk of the Arkansas fan base dismissing any and all of these concerns, regardless of whom voices them, citing the fact that it is only December and that the program has fixed its issues each season under Musselman so far.
While there is something to be said for the turnarounds in the past, that shouldn't be the expectation each season. Arkansas shouldn't get in a hole each season and have to dig out of it. At some point there needs to be a complete, consistent season from beginning to end, which has yet to happen under Musselman so far.
The purpose of this article isn't to bring up coaching or consistency — that can be for another day — but it does tie in to the purpose of this article. Arkansas' slow start has its efficiency metrics in a bad spot. Anytime those are mentioned or discussed, one of the common responses is: "it's only December, wait until March."
"Only December" is two games away from conference play with bad metrics (which factor into NCAA Tournament seeding and fielding in general) and plenty of glaring issues.
Arkansas sits at 7-4 with a home win over Duke, a home loss to UNC Greensboro, and nothing else of note on its resume other than beating inferior teams by small margins. The Razorbacks even dropped from No. 99 to No. 101 in the NET rankings because of their 69-66 win against Lipscomb.
The "wait until March" crowd is correct that there are plenty of opportunities for Arkansas to win big games and increase its footing for making the NCAA Tournament field with stronger metrics, but those metrics not only go towards the NCAA Tournament field.
There is plenty of data over past years that shows: (1) how past teams with similar metrics at this point of the season have fared, (2) where previous national champions graded out this early in the season, and (3) predictive outcomes for the rest of the season.
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