HawgBeat - Examining Arkansas' NCAA Tournament chances using past KenPom data
HawgBeat hoops expert Jackson Collier dives into the data for trends that could indicate Arkansas' potential in March.
arkansas.rivals.com
Arkansas is coming off back-to-back Elite Eight appearances after previously missing the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for over 25 years. The Razorbacks entered this season with plenty of hype and lofty expectations, but they did not exactly meet those through the regular season.
Injuries plagued the Razorbacks all year, as well as a constant struggle with consistency and closing out games. Despite all that, Arkansas still made the NCAA Tournament as an 8-seed, and will face off against the Illinois Fighting Illini on Thursday.
The 8-seed versus 9-seed draw is one of the least favorable in the NCAA Tournament. Teams immediately face an opponent that theoretically is evenly matched with them, and if they manage to win, the next opponent is almost guaranteed to be a 1-seed.
Arkansas started off the season strong, winning the consolation game in the Maui Invitational over San Diego State and racing out to an 11-1 start to the non-conference schedule.
A torn ACL injury to forward Trevon Brazile in the late non-conference altered the roster and rotations, and Arkansas lost its conference opener on the road at LSU, which sparked a 1-5 start to SEC play. Ultimately, the Razorbacks earned a 10-seed in the SEC Tournament and went 1-1 in Nashville, before finishing the season at 20-13 and earning an 8-seed.
All things considered, it was a disappointing year for fans and coaches alike after the team entered the season as a unanimous top 25 team boasting three McDonald's All-Americans and another strong transfer class.
Though it was not the results anyone wanted or anticipated to this point, can it all be rectified in March?
The KenPom ratings, a database of advanced statistics adjusted based on each team’s opponents, is one of several tools used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee when determining seeding and evaluating tournament resumes.
The 2022-2023 Razorbacks finished the season at No. 19 in the overall KenPom rankings. They ranked 51st in adjusted offensive efficiency, 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 25th in adjusted strength of schedule. Those numbers are almost identical to the last two Elite Eight teams.
CONTINUE READING HERE
