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Football How many wins should Arkansas football expect per year?

masonchoate

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Sep 1, 2021
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I did a story about it lol

Arkansas Athletics Director Hunter Yurachek set the record straight Sunday when he announced on X (formerly Twitter) that he is keeping head football coach Sam Pittman around for the 2024 season.

Once universally-loved around the state of Arkansas, Pittman has taken some heat during the 2023 season as his team has a 4-7 overall record with some disappointing losses at home to the likes of BYU, Mississippi State and Auburn.

It's fair to say that Pittman still has plenty of supporters — including his boss, coaches and players — and probably rightfully so. While other schools such as Texas A&M and Mississippi State have already made the decision to pay big chunks of money for staff overhauls.

Though I think the idea that Arkansas couldn't afford to do the same is silly, the fact that Yurachek is deciding not to might be the right call. Pittman's comments regarding NIL on Monday makes it seem even more like the right call by Yurachek.

The word expectation has been thrown around a lot during this season of turmoil, so HawgBeat went back to see what exactly the expectation at Arkansas should be.

Since 1958, the Razorbacks have had 12 head football coaches. Of those 12, just five posted a winning record during their time in Fayetteville. Those names are Frank Broyles, Lou Holtz, Ken Hatfield, Houston Nutt and Bobby Petrino.

Those five represent the standard (of winning) that most refer to when thinking about the potential of the Arkansas football program. While each had his own off-the-field issues, some coached in the Southwest Conference and some coached in the Southeast Conference, they at least proved they could win.

Hatfield leads the pack with an average of 9.2 wins across his six seasons as head coach from 1984-89. At the bottom of those five is Nutt, who averaged 7.5 wins per year from 1998-2007.

Arkansas football former coaches w/winning record since 1958
CoachSeasons at ArkansasOverall RecordAverage WinsSeasons with 8+ wins
Frank Broyles (1958-76)19144-58-57.612
Lou Holtz (1977-83)760-21-28.65
Ken Hatfield (1984-89)655-17-19.25
Houston Nutt (1998-2007)1074-497.56
Bobby Petrino
(2008-11)
434-178.53


The average wins per year between those five coaches is 8.3, hence why we added a tab for season with eight or more wins. So, should the expectation be eight wins, or should it be anywhere between 7.5 (Nutt's average) and 9.2 (Hatfield's average)?

It would be unfair to answer that question without looking at recent history. Since the most recent head coach with a career winning percentage over .500 at Arkansas (Petrino), no Head Hog has a winning record.

Arkansas coaches since 2012
CoachSeasons at ArkansasOverall RecordAverage WinsSeasons with 8+ wins
John L. Smith
(2012)
14-840
Bret Bielema
(2013-17)
529-345.81
Chad Morris
(2018-19)
24-1820
Sam Pittman (2020-present)3 (and 11 games)23-245.81


Pittman has the chance to get to an even .500 in his four full seasons if he beats Missouri on Friday afternoon.

The average of those four coaches is 4.4 wins per year. It might be unfair to lump Bielema and Pittman in with Smith and Morris, though. Either way, Arkansas football has won just 44.7% of its games since 2012.

Has that stretch changed the program expectation?

Arkansas is part of the hardest conference in college football — the SEC — and it's only going to get more difficult with Texas and Oklahoma joining the league next season. It hasn't always been that way, though, as the best coaches in school history — Hatfield, Holtz, Broyles — were all coaching during the SWC days.

Yurachek has made it clear that he's sticking with Pittman, who has the only season (2021) with at least nine wins since Petrino. Pittman has proved he can reach that eight-game threshold and there are plenty of games you can look back on during his tenure that were one-possession losses that could've easily gone his team's way.

Maybe all it will take to get back on track is making the right hires in the offseason. That'll take proper funding, which is something the program also needs to get top talent in. College football has become a business and players are starting to be recruited that way.

"I think we can recruit against anybody," Pittman said Monday. "It's just that you can't recruit against anybody financially, and I really feel good about where we're sitting now and that if that's the case, we can go out and recruit very well against anybody in the country."

Bielema's fifth season in 2017 ended up being his last at Arkansas. After a 7-6 campaign that featured a Belk Bowl loss to Virginia Tech in 2016, Bielema went 4-8 the next year and was fired after the Missouri game on Nov. 24, 2017.

The last coach to get five years before Bielema was Nutt, who went 9-5 with an SEC Western Division title in 2002. Before Nutt, Danny Ford went 4-7 in his fifth season in 1997 and he was fired after that.

It's safe to say that Pittman has a lot of work to do, and he will be diving into it very soon after Friday's game against Missouri.
The Hogs and Tigers will kickoff at 3 p.m. CT at Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville and the game will be televised on CBS.
 
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