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Hoops Preseason No. 1? Hogs receiving lots of love in 'way-too-early' rankings

PorkshankRedemption

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Dec 12, 2011
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STORY FROM HUTCH...

FAYETTEVILLE — With the season still seven months away, some are already projecting Arkansas to build off back-to-back trips to the Elite Eight and make it even further in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

In fact, multiple national college basketball writers — including at ESPN and Sports Illustrated — have tabbed the Razorbacks as preseason No. 1 in their “way-too-early” top 25.

It is easily the most preseason hype Arkansas has received since it was coming off a national title in 1994, when it landed at No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll ahead of the 1994-95 season. That poll won’t come out until October, but there are plenty of rankings already making the rounds online.

The first outlet to put Arkansas in the top spot was HeatCheckCBB.com last week and other more well-known publications and personalities followed suit in the immediate aftermath of Kansas’ win over North Carolina in Monday’s national championship.

Most notably, ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney slotted the Razorbacks at No. 1, but those picks hinge on how their lineup shakes out for next season. While it has the nation’s second-best recruit class for 2022, there are a couple of current players with looming decisions.

Although he wrote that all potential super seniors were projected to leave unless they’ve already made an announcement to the contrary, Borzello included Au’Diese Toney in his projection. He also didn’t include Jaylin Williams, who announced Monday that he’d test the NBA Draft waters without hiring an agent.

In addition to Toney, Borzello had Davonte Davis and Arkansas’ trio of McDonald’s All-Americans — Nick Smith Jr., Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh — in his projected starting lineup, with the noticeable absence of a big man.

“There’s not a clear No. 1 entering the offseason, but five-star guard Anthony Black’s commitment to Arkansas in late March gives the Razorbacks the edge,” Borzello wrote. “There are some roster questions, mainly focused on Jaylin Williams and Au’Diese Toney, but if one of the two return, I think this is the best team in the country.”

With 16 double-doubles in his final 23 games, Williams is garnering more and more attention in mock drafts and prospect rankings. He has until June 1 to withdraw his name from the 2022 NBA Draft and maintain his college eligibility.

“One huge draft decision to watch is that of star center Jaylin Williams, who blossomed into one of the SEC’s best bigs down the stretch,” Sweeney wrote. “He’s considered to be returning for the purposes of these rankings, but his stock almost certainly rose down the stretch. If Williams returns as projected, this is the best team in the country.”

After a pair of lightly used reserves — Chance Moore and KK Robinson — entered the portal last week, the first major roster domino fell Sunday afternoon, as third-team All-American JD Notae announced he would hire an agent and pursue a professional career.

Like Toney, he could have returned in 2022-23 because of the extra year of eligibility granted to all players by the NCAA in response to the pandemic.

However, even without Notae, Fox Sports Radio personality Aaron Torres likes the Razorbacks enough to put them at No. 1 in his ranking, as well.

“Had leading scorer and All-SEC guard JD Notae returned, this would have been a no-doubter,” Torres wrote. “But even with him gone, the Hogs have a loaded squad ready to compete for the school’s first Final Four berth since 1995.”

Stadium's Jeff Goodman feels similarly about Arkansas, also putting it at No. 1 in his ranking.

"I’d expect Notae to leave, but as long as Williams and Toney come back, Eric Musselman’s Arkansas squad is in the mix for the No. 1 team in the country," Goodman wrote.

Arkansas is not a unanimous choice as the best team in college basketball, though.

Seth Davis with The Athletic has the Razorbacks at No. 3, but it’s worth noting that his projection includes Notae and Williams returning and Toney leaving. The only certainty in that group is that Notae is definitely not coming back.

A couple of rankings — by Gary Parrish of CBS Sports and Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News — have Arkansas slotted at No. 6

Based on Parrish’s reasoning for putting the Razorbacks there, it appears as though he’s expecting Toney and Williams both to return to school.

“The Razorbacks' ranking is based on Arkansas returning three of the top five scorers from a team that advanced to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year,” Parrish wrote. “Eric Musselman will add three 5-star prospects to that core and have a group good enough to get Arkansas back to the Final Four for the first time since 1995.”

It’s not just national writers who seem to love Arkansas’ chances in 2022-23.

Caesars Sportsbook has already released its odds for next year’s national championship and the Razorbacks are sixth on the list at 16-1. They’re behind Kansas (10-1), Gonzaga (12-1) and a trio of schools — Arizona, Kentucky and Duke — at 15-1.

Another sportsbook, BetRivers, has actually installed Arkansas and Duke as co-favorites to win it all with 9-1 odds, followed closely by Gonzaga at 10-1.

Living up to those lofty expectations and cutting down the nets in Houston a year from now won’t be easy for the Razorbacks.

Over the last 48 years, only eight preseason AP No. 1 teams went on to win the national championship. The last team to accomplish the feat was North Carolina in 2008-09.

That said, each of the last five — and eight of the last 10 — national champions were ranked inside the top six of the preseason AP Poll. When Arkansas won the title in 1994, it began the year at No. 3.

Despite its lack of postseason success outside of Arkansas, the SEC appears to be loaded once again. Four other teams in the conference — Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama — are ranked in pretty much all of the “way-too-early” top 25s, with Texas A&M also receiving some love.

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OP:


Neither Williams nor JD in the lineup…which is surprising…

So, we’ll see.
 
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