From @DanielFair
The No. 16 Arkansas Razorbacks already have one game of live action under their belts, as they defeated the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks 85-69 on Friday night in a charity exhibition ahead of the start of the regular season on Nov. 6.
All told, Arkansas will play 13 non conference teams before the start of Southeastern Conference play begins on Jan. 4. There are marquee matchups against No. 9 Baylor, Michigan in New York City, at Miami in the SEC/ACC Challenge and Illinois on Thanksgiving Day in Kansas City.
While the season hasn't yet officially started, KenPom — one of the premier sports analytics websites out there for college basketball — has released its projections for the 2024-2025 season.
In this story, we'll take a quick look at what KenPom's analytics say about each big-time non conference opponent the Razorbacks have this year.
If you're not great with numbers, KenPom's system can be difficult to understand, so we're going to break it down into four categories:
— Adjusted offensive efficiency
— Adjusted defensive efficiency
— Adjusted efficiency margin
— Adjusted tempo
Adjusted offensive efficiency measures points scored per 100 possessions, and is weighted against multiple factors, such as quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight).
Adjusted defensive efficiency measures points allowed per 100 possessions and is weighted against the same metrics.
The adjusted efficiency is the margin between the offensive and defensive numbers. The higher your offensive efficiency the better, and the inverse is true of defensive efficiency. So, the larger the margin between the two, the more efficient the basketball team will be.
Adjusted tempo measures the amount of possessions a team has per 40 minutes. It's weighted against several factors, but something interesting to note is that typically the slower the offense the more efficient it is.
Of the top 10 most-efficient offenses in the country, only two (Alabama and Arizona) rank in the top six for tempo. Only eight rank in the top 100.
With that understanding, let's take a look at those numbers say about some of Arkansas' opponents and how KenPom's analytics predict each game will end.
vs. Lipscomb — Nov. 6
Ratings (Rank)| Team | Efficiency Margin | Offensive efficiency | Defensive efficiency | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Lipscomb | +1.84 (141) | 102.9 (116) | 101 (185) | 72 (100) |
Projected outcome: KenPom predicts Arkansas has a 92% probability of winning this game, and the projected score is 83-67 Arkansas.
vs. Baylor (Dallas) — Nov. 9
Ratings (Rank)| Team | Efficiency Margin | Offensive efficiency | Defensive efficiency | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Baylor | +23.20 (11) | 114 (8) | 90.8 (23) | 69.8 (285) |
Projected outcome: KenPom predicts Arkansas has a 38% probability of winning this game, and the projected score is 75-72 Baylor.
vs. Troy — Nov. 13
Ratings (Rank)
| Team | Efficiency Margin | Offensive efficiency | Defensive efficiency | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Troy | +3.5 (124) | 99.8 (169) | 96.3 (92) | 72.2 (83) |
Projected outcome: KenPom predicts Arkansas has a 90% probability of winning this game, and the projected score is 80-65 Arkansas.
vs. Pacific — Nov. 18
Ratings (Rank)| Team | Efficiency Margin | Offensive efficiency | Defensive efficiency | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Pacific | -9.16 (287) | 96.1 (258) | 105.2 (300) | 71.4 (146) |
Projected outcome: KenPom predicts Arkansas has a 98% probability of winning this game, and the projected score is 85-62 Arkansas.
vs. Little Rock — Nov. 22
Ratings (Rank)| Team | Efficiency Margin | Offensive efficiency | Defensive efficiency | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Little Rock | -6.71 (251) | 98.7 (191) | 105.4 (305) | 72 (99) |
Projected outcome: KenPom predicts Arkansas has a 98% probability of winning this game, and the projected score is 86-64 Arkansas.
vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore — Nov. 25
Ratings (Rank)| Team | Efficiency Margin | Offensive efficiency | Defensive efficiency | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Maryland-Eastern Shore | -22.42 (362) | 88.2 (357) | 119.6 (364) | 71 (177) |
Projected outcome: KenPom predicts Arkansas has a 99.9% probability of winning this game, and the projected score is 86-53.
vs. Illinois (Kansas City) — Nov. 28
Table Name| Team | Efficiency Margin | Offensive efficiency | Defensive efficiency | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Illinois | +18.76 (23) | 111.1 (16) | 92.3 (40) | 72.4 (76) |
Projected outcome: KenPom predicts Arkansas has a 37% probability of winning this game, and the projected score is 77-74 Illinois.
