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arkansas.rivals.com
On the back of a 10-game winning streak, the Arkansas Razorbacks (14-2) have found themselves occupying the No. 1 spot in almost every major poll heading into conference play.
Thanks to some smart scheduling from head coach Dave Van Horn, the Diamond Hogs have already played 11 Quad One games – and won 10 of them. The Razorbacks have the toughest strength of schedule in the country, and their impressive resume will come in handy when it comes to their chances of earning a national seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas’ blistering start to the campaign has been spearheaded by an incredible pitching staff. Touted in the preseason as one of the best in the country, pitching coach Matt Hobbs’ group has lived up to the billing and then some. Through 15 games, the Razorbacks are top-three in the country in all six major pitching team stats.
2024 Arkansas Pitching Through 16 Games
*Source: NCAA and College Baseball Nation
The Hogs’ excellence on the mound has allowed them to suffocate opponents and win games even on days when their bats are relatively quiet. That’s not to say that the offense hasn’t been carrying its weight, as Arkansas still averages 7.8 runs per game and has five run-rule victories so far this season.
It all starts with the brilliance of ace lefty Hagen Smith, who has looked like a legitimate Golden Spikes Award candidate through his first four starts of the season. Aside from his first inning mulligan on a frigid Opening Day, the junior has been nails for the Razorbacks on Fridays with a season ERA of 2.12 and a whopping 40 strikeouts in 17 innings.
His crown jewel performance came against Oregon State, when he silenced the Beavers’ bats with six scoreless innings and tied the school record for single-game strikeouts with 17. The Bullard, TX, native has been downright unfair for opposing batters, recording 40 Ks in just 17 innings of work.
An astonishing 61.5% of at-bats against Smith this season have ended in a strikeout. Listed as MLB Pipeline’s No. 15 prospect in the 2024 Draft, Smith is in position to be Arkansas’ most dominant starter since Blaine Knight went 14-0 on Friday nights in 2018.
Brady Tygart and Mason Molina have also been effective for Arkansas, with both starters being good enough to take the mound on Friday nights for most other teams in the country. While Smith’s eye-catching strikeout numbers have caught most of the headlines, it’s Tygart that has statistically been the Hogs’ best pitcher this season with a miniscule 0.90 ERA. Molina’s Sunday solidity has also been key in securing back-to-back weekend sweeps.
In the bullpen, the Razorbacks have a ridiculous seven options with ERAs under 4.00 (eight if you include midweek starter Colin Fisher). That gives Hobbs elite relief depth to bookend his top tier starting rotation.
Defense wins championships…and so does pitching
As mentioned before, Arkansas is building an impressive resume for the postseason. With the team flying, fans are already beginning to think about the Diamond Hogs’ lofty potential in the NCAA Tournament. Historically speaking, the pitching-based identity that Dave Van Horn’s team has shown thus far bodes extremely well for their College World Series prospects.
Looking at the track record of past CWS teams, it’s clear that elite pitching is a recipe for success in the postseason. Look no further than last year’s NCAA Tournament, where the teams that were in the top three nationally in ERA – Wake Forest, Tennessee, and Virginia – all made it to Omaha. Additionally, Oral Roberts’ Cinderella run to the CWS was led by an elite pitching staff that was 7th in the nation in team ERA.
The eventual national champions, the LSU Tigers, were also led by the superhuman pitching excellence of ace starter Paul Skenes, who led the nation in both ERA and strikeouts.
Looking even further back at other title-winning teams, a distinct pattern emerges correlating quality pitching to silverware. In the last 15 years, nine out of 14 national champions have finished in the top 25 nationally in team ERA – and 10 have had a collective ERA below 4.00.
*A table of previous champions’ data is listed at the bottom of this article.
Van Horn and Hobbs’ 2024 formula might be just right
Considering these trends, Arkansas fans have good reason to feel confident about their team’s high aims in postseason play. Arkansas fans know better than anyone the importance of pitching depth after the Hogs’ projected Friday night starters suffered season-ending injuries in both 2022 (Peyton Pallette) and 2023 (Jaxon Wiggins).
Who knows how much further Arkansas could have gone with a healthy pitching staff? Last season, the Hogs gave up a combined 32 runs in two losses to TCU that eliminated them from the Fayetteville Regional. In 2022, a loss to Ole Miss in Omaha saw Razorback pitchers give up 13 runs.
This season, pitching depth will be far from a weakness for the Diamond Hogs – it will instead be the ace up Van Horn’s sleeve. With the three-headed monster of Smith, Tygart and Molina, the Razorbacks will have an elite starter on the mound every day of the weekend.
Adding in the emergence of true freshman lefty Colin Fisher (1.26 ERA) as a midweek starter and the experience of former weekend starter Will McEntire (2.11 ERA), Van Horn and Hobbs have reliable options to turn to even if Arkansas is faced with elimination games in the later stages of the tournament. That will certainly give the Hogs an advantage if a regional or hypothetical CWS bracket gets messy and they are forced to make a run through the losers bracket.
Spearheaded by this elite pitching staff, could this finally be the year that Van Horn and the Hogs get over the hump and deliver a national championship to Fayetteville? Only time will tell, but there are a number of historical and statistical trends going in their favor at this point in the season.
At the risk of getting a little conspiratorial, the Razorbacks also might have finally exorcized their Omaha-related demons in Arlington a few weeks ago with a revenge win over Oregon State in a rematch of the 2018 CWS Finals – an important milestone for superstitious fans. With that curse broken, the stage might be set for the Diamond Hogs to win it all at long last.
Arkansas will open its SEC campaign against Missouri on Friday night, with first pitch at Baum-Walker Stadium scheduled for 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network Plus. Stay tuned to HawgBeat for full coverage of this weekend’s series.
Former National Champions Team ERA
*Source: D1 Baseball and NCAA records
HawgBeat - Arkansas’ early-season identity bodes well for postseason prospects
HawgBeat takes a statistical deep dive to prove how Arkansas pitching stats bode well for down the road.
arkansas.rivals.com
On the back of a 10-game winning streak, the Arkansas Razorbacks (14-2) have found themselves occupying the No. 1 spot in almost every major poll heading into conference play.
Thanks to some smart scheduling from head coach Dave Van Horn, the Diamond Hogs have already played 11 Quad One games – and won 10 of them. The Razorbacks have the toughest strength of schedule in the country, and their impressive resume will come in handy when it comes to their chances of earning a national seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas’ blistering start to the campaign has been spearheaded by an incredible pitching staff. Touted in the preseason as one of the best in the country, pitching coach Matt Hobbs’ group has lived up to the billing and then some. Through 15 games, the Razorbacks are top-three in the country in all six major pitching team stats.
2024 Arkansas Pitching Through 16 Games
| Category | Statistic | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Average (ERA) | 2.74 | 3rd |
| Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) | 13.9 | 1st |
| Hits allowed per 9 innings (H/9) | 6.37 | 3rd |
| Walks/hits per inning pitched (WHIP) | 1.03 | 2nd |
| Strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) | 4.84 | 1st |
| Fielding independent pitching (FIP) | 2.55 | 2nd |
*Source: NCAA and College Baseball Nation
The Hogs’ excellence on the mound has allowed them to suffocate opponents and win games even on days when their bats are relatively quiet. That’s not to say that the offense hasn’t been carrying its weight, as Arkansas still averages 7.8 runs per game and has five run-rule victories so far this season.
It all starts with the brilliance of ace lefty Hagen Smith, who has looked like a legitimate Golden Spikes Award candidate through his first four starts of the season. Aside from his first inning mulligan on a frigid Opening Day, the junior has been nails for the Razorbacks on Fridays with a season ERA of 2.12 and a whopping 40 strikeouts in 17 innings.
His crown jewel performance came against Oregon State, when he silenced the Beavers’ bats with six scoreless innings and tied the school record for single-game strikeouts with 17. The Bullard, TX, native has been downright unfair for opposing batters, recording 40 Ks in just 17 innings of work.
An astonishing 61.5% of at-bats against Smith this season have ended in a strikeout. Listed as MLB Pipeline’s No. 15 prospect in the 2024 Draft, Smith is in position to be Arkansas’ most dominant starter since Blaine Knight went 14-0 on Friday nights in 2018.
Brady Tygart and Mason Molina have also been effective for Arkansas, with both starters being good enough to take the mound on Friday nights for most other teams in the country. While Smith’s eye-catching strikeout numbers have caught most of the headlines, it’s Tygart that has statistically been the Hogs’ best pitcher this season with a miniscule 0.90 ERA. Molina’s Sunday solidity has also been key in securing back-to-back weekend sweeps.
In the bullpen, the Razorbacks have a ridiculous seven options with ERAs under 4.00 (eight if you include midweek starter Colin Fisher). That gives Hobbs elite relief depth to bookend his top tier starting rotation.
Defense wins championships…and so does pitching
As mentioned before, Arkansas is building an impressive resume for the postseason. With the team flying, fans are already beginning to think about the Diamond Hogs’ lofty potential in the NCAA Tournament. Historically speaking, the pitching-based identity that Dave Van Horn’s team has shown thus far bodes extremely well for their College World Series prospects.
Looking at the track record of past CWS teams, it’s clear that elite pitching is a recipe for success in the postseason. Look no further than last year’s NCAA Tournament, where the teams that were in the top three nationally in ERA – Wake Forest, Tennessee, and Virginia – all made it to Omaha. Additionally, Oral Roberts’ Cinderella run to the CWS was led by an elite pitching staff that was 7th in the nation in team ERA.
The eventual national champions, the LSU Tigers, were also led by the superhuman pitching excellence of ace starter Paul Skenes, who led the nation in both ERA and strikeouts.
Looking even further back at other title-winning teams, a distinct pattern emerges correlating quality pitching to silverware. In the last 15 years, nine out of 14 national champions have finished in the top 25 nationally in team ERA – and 10 have had a collective ERA below 4.00.
*A table of previous champions’ data is listed at the bottom of this article.
Van Horn and Hobbs’ 2024 formula might be just right
Considering these trends, Arkansas fans have good reason to feel confident about their team’s high aims in postseason play. Arkansas fans know better than anyone the importance of pitching depth after the Hogs’ projected Friday night starters suffered season-ending injuries in both 2022 (Peyton Pallette) and 2023 (Jaxon Wiggins).
Who knows how much further Arkansas could have gone with a healthy pitching staff? Last season, the Hogs gave up a combined 32 runs in two losses to TCU that eliminated them from the Fayetteville Regional. In 2022, a loss to Ole Miss in Omaha saw Razorback pitchers give up 13 runs.
This season, pitching depth will be far from a weakness for the Diamond Hogs – it will instead be the ace up Van Horn’s sleeve. With the three-headed monster of Smith, Tygart and Molina, the Razorbacks will have an elite starter on the mound every day of the weekend.
Adding in the emergence of true freshman lefty Colin Fisher (1.26 ERA) as a midweek starter and the experience of former weekend starter Will McEntire (2.11 ERA), Van Horn and Hobbs have reliable options to turn to even if Arkansas is faced with elimination games in the later stages of the tournament. That will certainly give the Hogs an advantage if a regional or hypothetical CWS bracket gets messy and they are forced to make a run through the losers bracket.
Spearheaded by this elite pitching staff, could this finally be the year that Van Horn and the Hogs get over the hump and deliver a national championship to Fayetteville? Only time will tell, but there are a number of historical and statistical trends going in their favor at this point in the season.
At the risk of getting a little conspiratorial, the Razorbacks also might have finally exorcized their Omaha-related demons in Arlington a few weeks ago with a revenge win over Oregon State in a rematch of the 2018 CWS Finals – an important milestone for superstitious fans. With that curse broken, the stage might be set for the Diamond Hogs to win it all at long last.
Arkansas will open its SEC campaign against Missouri on Friday night, with first pitch at Baum-Walker Stadium scheduled for 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network Plus. Stay tuned to HawgBeat for full coverage of this weekend’s series.
Former National Champions Team ERA
| Year | National Champion | Team ERA | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | LSU | 4.01 | 9th |
| 2010 | South Carolina | 3.45 | 7th |
| 2011 | South Carolina | 2.45 | 5th |
| 2012 | Arizona | 3.70 | 71st |
| 2013 | UCLA | 2.55 | 6th |
| 2014 | Vanderbilt | 2.90 | 25th |
| 2015 | Virginia | 3.49 | 56th |
| 2016 | Coastal Carolina | 3.41 | 31st |
| 2017 | Florida | 3.45 | 18th |
| 2018 | Oregon State | 3.29 | 12th |
| 2019 | Vanderbilt | 3.72 | 25th |
| 2020 | N/A (Covid-19 | ||
| 2021 | Mississippi State | 4.04 | 42nd |
| 2022 | Ole Miss | 4.21 | 22nd |
| 2023 | LSU | 4.48 | 32nd |
*Source: D1 Baseball and NCAA records
