With three straight losses to Southeastern Conference foes, the Arkansas basketball team is sitting on thin ice to make the 2025 NCAA Tournament, according to Joe Lunardi's Bracketology on Tuesday.
Lunardi, one of the most well-known college basketball bracketologists who updates his field of 68 frequently throughout the regular season, now projects Arkansas as his 'First Team Out' of the tournament.
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"It was only a matter of time before the quality of this year's SEC eroded its quantity of projected NCAA bids," Lunardi wrote. "Since somebody has to lose whenever one SEC team plays another, the league's bubble teams are living a game-to-game existence. A week ago, Arkansas and Vanderbilt were on the right side of the at-large cut line. Now, due to their combined 1-5 record in conference play, both would be hosting an NIT game if it were mid-March instead of mid-January."
Bart Torvik, a top analytics database, also gives the Razorbacks just a 25.4% chance of qualifying for the postseason come March.
The three teams just behind Arkansas in Lunardi's 'First Four Out' category are Arizona State, Indiana and Vanderbilt, with Texas, Cincinnati, SMU and Villanova making up the 'Next Four Out.' Ahead of the Hogs in the 'Last Four In' are New Mexico, Iowa, Dayton and Creighton.
11 SEC teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, per Lunardi, in Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri and Oklahoma.
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Arkansas is faced with a seemingly must-win scenario at 8 p.m. CT Tuesday evening at the LSU Tigers (11-5, 0-3 SEC), who are also not in Lunardi's latest projection. Lose this game, and the odds may be too insurmountable to overcome for John Calipari's Razorbacks.
