The No. 16 Arkansas Razorbacks are just one day away from hosting the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks in a preseason exhibition at Bud Walton Arena.
Tickets for the charity game are sold out much like last year's exhibition against Purdue, and while the final score won't have any bearing on what the upcoming season holds, it will be a good barometer to see where the Hogs are at before they host Lipscomb in the regular-season opener on Nov. 6.
Fans of both teams have gotten small glimpses of what the Razorbacks and Jayhawks could look like, as the Razorbacks went to Hot Springs and Pine Bluff for the Tip-Off Tour, and the Jayhawks hosted Late Night at the Phog over the last couple of weekends.
Let's take a look at the numbers side of what these teams look like:
The Analytics:
The KenPom advanced ratings database, one of the premiere analytics websites for college basketball, officially went live on October 15th, and the Jayhawks debuted at No. 6, while the Razorbacks began at No. 25.
KenPom breaks down its preseason ratings into four main categories:
— Adjusted offensive efficiency
— Adjusted defensive efficiency
— Adjusted efficiency margin
— Adjusted tempo
Unless you're a seasoned statistician, those definitions are probably confusing, so let's break it down so it's easier to understand.
Adjusted offensive efficiency measures points scored per 100 possessions, and is weighted against multiple factors, such as quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight).
Adjusted defensive efficiency measures points allowed per 100 possessions and is weighted against the same metrics.
The adjusted efficiency is the margin between the offensive and defensive numbers. The higher your offensive efficiency the better, and the inverse is true of defensive efficiency. So, the larger the margin between the two, the more efficient the basketball team will be.
For example, and you can see this in the table below, Arkansas' offensive efficiency is 109.2 and its defensive efficiency is 90.8. So the efficiency margin is +18.41 (109.2-90.8).
While the season has not started yet, KenPom has a predictive system that takes into account multiple different factors, which is described on the site: "I include the last five seasons of team data and two seasons of conference data (using the current season’s membership), plus returning production, transfers, and notable freshmen, along with coaching changes. Independent forecasts are made for offense and defense."
Given that information, it makes sense the Razorbacks are ranked where they are. Arkansas head coach John Calipari brought in a lot of talent, but he assembled a team of entirely new faces with only Trevon Brazile as the one holdover from last season. There are three that followed him from Kentucky, but it's still a new group that hasn't played a live game together yet.
Kansas, on the other hand, returns several key pieces from last year's team, as well as a group of transfers and incoming freshmen, to bolster what some believe is Jayhawks head coach Bill Self's deepest team in years.
The Jayhawks rank sixth in both adjusted efficiency margin and adjusted offensive efficiency. They lost Kevin McCullar to the NBA, but much of their scoring remained on the team. Fifth-year center Hunter Dickinson, second-year forward KJ Adams and fifth-year guard Dajuan Harris Jr. collectively averaged 39 of the Jayhawks' 75.6 points per game.
Kansas finished the season with a 23-11 (10-8 Big 12) record. KenPom predicts the Jayhawks will finish better than that this coming season, with a projected finish of 22-9 and 13-7 in Big 12 Conference play. Arkansas' projected finish is 20-11 and 10-8 in SEC play.
Ratings (Rank)
| Adjusted Efficiency | Adjusted Offensive Efficiency | Adjusted Defensive Efficiency | Tempo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | +18.41 (25) | 109.2 (37) | 90.8 (22) | 73.2 (32) |
| Kansas | +24.42 (6) | 114.1 (6) | 89.7 (10) | 72.1 (93) |
That's true across the board on KenPom's website. Of the top 10 most-efficient offenses in the country, only two (Alabama and Arizona) rank in the top six for tempo. Only eight rank in the top 100.
Arkansas is also ranked behind Kansas in the defensive department, and while the Jayhawks ranked 107th in points allowed a season ago, Dickinson was fifth in the Big 12 in blocks (47) and Harris ranked 10th in steals (1.5 per game). The Razorbacks will need to focus on taking care of the ball if they want to stay efficient on offense.
Harris' ability to pick pockets might impact the game of Arkansas guard Johnell Davis, who transferred from Florida Atlantic. Davis led the AAC in turnovers last season with 97, an average of 2.85 per game.
Friday's game will be a sellout at Bud Walton Arena, and even if it's an exhibition game, the home-court advantage will likely factor into the matchup. KenPom has Arkansas' home floor ranked 24th in home court advantage. The website said the science is a little murky, but it's a decent metric to work with.
Potential Starting Matchups:
As has been well documented, Arkansas' roster looks entirely different this season than it has in years past. Fans got a glimpse of the team during the Tip-Off Tour in Hot Springs and Pine Bluff a few weeks ago, but several players were held out for precautionary reasons.HawgBeat has already projected what Arkansas' starting five will look like this season, but with Friday's game being an exhibition and Calipari mentioning at SEC Media Day last week his team has been banged up, it's possible there could be some deviation from that.
Kansas' starting lineup has some familiar pieces as last year, as three starters return in 2024. The Jayhawks added South Dakota State transfer Zeke Mayo and Wisconsin transfer AJ Storr as well, who should be in the starting lineup for the Jayhawks.
Healthy Starting Lineups
| Arkansas | Kansas |
|---|---|
| Jonas Aidoo: 6'11" 240 | Hunter Dickinson: 7'2" 265 |
| Adou Thiero: 6'8" 220 | KJ Adams Jr.: 6'7" 235 |
| Karter Knox: 6'6" 220 | AJ Storr: 6'7" 205 |
| Johnell Davis: 6'4" 210 | Zeke Mayo: 6'4" 185 |
| DJ Wagner: 6'4" 195 | Dajuan Harris Jr.: 6'2" 175 |
As for Kansas, Dickinson suffered a sprained foot injury prior to the Jayhawks’ Late Night in the Phog event and he hasn’t practiced since, according to Self.
Former Mississippi State transfer Shakeel Moore and Alabama transfer Rylan Griffen are also banged up and unlikely to play Friday night.
Alternate Starting Lineups
| Arkansas | Kansas |
|---|---|
| Zvonimir Ivisic: 7'2" 245 | Zach Clemence: 6’11" 230 |
| Trevon Brazile: 6'10" 230 | KJ Adams Jr.: 6'7" 235 |
| Karter Knox: 6'6" 220 | AJ Storr: 6'7" 205 |
| DJ Wagner: 6'4" 195 | Zeke Mayo: 6'4" 185 |
| Boogie Fland: 6'2" 175 | Dajuan Harris Jr.: 6'2" 175 |
Advanced Stats:
The Jayhawks return their most-used player from a year ago in Dickinson. He had a 27.3% usage rate last season, which means 27.3% of Kansas' plays ran through him when he was on the floor. The next highest-used player was Adams, whose usage rate was 18.6%. From this, it's possible we will see a lot of plays run through the frontcourt on Friday.Since it's a new-look team for Arkansas, it's hard to get a grasp on how each player will be used, but if we look at Calipari's Kentucky team from last year, we can get an idea. Kentucky overwhelmingly ran its offense through its guards, as Wagner was third on the team with a 21.2% usage rate, and former Kentucky guards Rob Dillingham's and Antonio Reeves' were 30.3% and 25.9%, respectively.
The other two Kentucky transfers who followed Calipari — Ivisic and Thiero — had usage rates of 21% and 15.6%, respectively.
While Davis was at Florida Atlantic, he was tasked with being the main facilitator for the Owls. His usage rate was a whopping 27.7%, which makes sense, as he was the best player on the floor for the Owls. Now at Arkansas, he'll still be relied upon heavily, but probably not to the same amount as he was last season.
In the rebounding department, it's Dickinson once again who led the way for the Jayhawks. He had a 19.5% total rebound rate, which is an estimate of the available rebounds he grabbed while he was on the floor. That's more than every frontcourt player on the Arkansas roster.
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