Bill Connelly came out with his 134-team rating for returning production, and he has Arkansas ranked 109th overall.
"For a few years now, I've been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I have created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift a ton with the rising number of transfers. But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement and regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can still tell us a lot."
The Razorbacks return just 46% of last year's production, including 50% on offense and 41% on defense.
According to Connelly, about 11% of teams return under 50% of production in a season. That results in an average drop of about 5.7 adjusted points in SP+.
2024 Arkansas opponents:
4. Oklahoma State (77%)
18. Texas A&M (72%)
25. Texas (70%)
31. Missouri (68%)
42. UAB (66%)
50. Auburn (65%)
60. LSU (63%)
68. Ole Miss (61%)
94. Tennessee (52%)
115. Alabama (44%)
121. LA Tech (41%)
122. Miss State (41%)
"For a few years now, I've been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I have created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift a ton with the rising number of transfers. But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement and regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can still tell us a lot."
The Razorbacks return just 46% of last year's production, including 50% on offense and 41% on defense.
According to Connelly, about 11% of teams return under 50% of production in a season. That results in an average drop of about 5.7 adjusted points in SP+.
2024 Arkansas opponents:
4. Oklahoma State (77%)
18. Texas A&M (72%)
25. Texas (70%)
31. Missouri (68%)
42. UAB (66%)
50. Auburn (65%)
60. LSU (63%)
68. Ole Miss (61%)
94. Tennessee (52%)
115. Alabama (44%)
121. LA Tech (41%)
122. Miss State (41%)
