HawgBeat - HawgBeat Hoops Mailbag: 10/4
HawgBeat basketball analyst Jackson Collier answers reader questions in this HawgBeat Hoops Mailbag edition.
arkansas.rivals.com
The Arkansas basketball season is fast-approaching, with preseason charity exhibition matchups just weeks away and the season opener not far behind on November 6th against Lipscomb.
This year marks one of the most anticipated seasons for Razorback basketball in recent memory, with Naismith Hall of Famer and first-year head coach John Calipari leading the charge from the sidelines, along with an immense amount of talent.
To gear up for the start of the season, HawgBeat ran our regular hoops mailbag series, where we answer reader questions. We take submissions from social media and on The Trough premium message board at HawgBeat.com.
Every question posed on The Trough is answered completely, while only a select few are answered on social media. Be sure to subscribe to have your questions answered.
Biggest concern you have based on hearings from the staff or sources about this basketball team? - HawgBeat user @amart03
There have been a few, but these are mainly my own concerns rather than staff or source concerns:
1) Lack of proven volume shooters. Johnell Davis is about the only guy on roster who has taken and made threes at a high clip. Trevon Brazile and Zvonimir Ivisic have done so at low volume. Adou Thiero is average at low volume. Melo Sanchez did it at a lower division. D.J. Wagner was high volume and low percentage. The hope is that Karter Knox and Boogie Fland will be high volume and high percentage guys to go along with Davis, and for Wagner's shot to be a bit better.
2) Somewhat related to the first concern, but even with a lower number of freshmen, the way the roster is built there will still be a heavy-reliance on freshmen. In order for this team to be very good, Fland and Knox, and even Billy Richmond III, will have to be ready to contribute at a high level from day one. Will they answer the call?
3) Injuries. Particularly in the frontcourt. If Aidoo goes down, the entire way the team functions and plays will change. To begin with, you really only have 3-4 posts with Jonas Aidoo, Thiero, Ivisic and Brazile. Occasionally Knox in a small-ball forward spot, but again, see point No. 2.
Do you have any concerns this team will not be good? I ask because the hype around last years team was big and we know what happened. - HawgBeat user @Woodamnpig95
Definitely a little bit more cautious after last year, but by the same token you have a Hall of Fame coach with elite talent and a better portal haul top-to-bottom. Plus, there is already some built-in chemistry with some of the guys that came over from Kentucky — Wagner, Ivisic and Thiero.
Could this team come out and fall flat on its face? Sure. But I don't think we see an all-around failure like we saw last season. I think there's just too much talent and too much of a track record with Calipari having success throughout the regular season.
If some of the concerns addressed above come to fruition — it isn't a great shooting team or there is a key injury or two — I think there might be a concern, but until either or both of those happen, I am not concerned with it being a bad team.
How good the team will be is a different question, though.
What do you think this team's ceiling is? - HawgBeat user @Scottythurmans3
Ceiling I would say is Final Four. The floor is probably a bubble team. Where do they actually land? Probably somewhere in the middle.
The ceiling is predicated on a few things and is obviously best case scenario. That involves Thiero being a legitimate three-point threat, the team remaining healthy the whole season, Wagner living up to his expectations out of high school and the incoming freshmen performing at a high level from the beginning of the season, among some other things.
I don't think it's a stretch for a couple of those things to happen. To be a fringe NCAA Tournament team, though, would be worst-case scenario, and it's essentially the exact opposite of the ceiling.
That would involve an injury or two, freshmen not performing up to expectations, a lack of spacing overall on the floor, etc.
Looking at Cal's new recruiting model, do you think he's going to focus on continuing the approach of getting more veteran guards and younger wings/bigs, as general 'priorities' in terms of the type of player he recruits? - X (formerly known as Twitter) user @WilburSample
It's hard to say, because I think ultimately Calipari is going to do what he does best, and that's accumulate talent. There's a mix of young and old bigs on this roster, but the frontcourt is more of a veteran group than an inexperienced one, with Aidoo, Brazile and Thiero each having three-plus years of college under their belts. The one exception in the frontcourt would be Ivisic.
I do think Calipari will continue to land some of the top guards in the country out of high school. That's been a staple of his for decades now and I don't anticipate that stopping anytime soon. I also think he will add a veteran presence in the backcourt to help coach the young players up with how old the game has become.
In addition to that, Calipari and his staff will also have the focus on player retention and development. They don't necessarily want to bring in guys just to transfer out, and they're only going to play a core rotation of seven-to-eight players. The back half of the roster is there to buy in and stick around. Guys like Casmir Chavis, Melo Sanchez and Jaden Karuletwa could see some playing time at some point this season and in future seasons.
Looking ahead at roster building in the future, though, I envision two top-ranked high school guards in each class, plus either a coveted wing or big. Then the staff will look to retain three or so pieces and add another four-plus through the portal.
That gets you a good mix of experience, retention, and young talent in this new college basketball world, and I think it's a great strategy.
Which player do you think will most immediately be ready to be the “go-to guy” for buckets in early games? - X (formerly known as Twitter) user @BroMattPaul
Easy answer: Johnell Davis.
Matt did follow up with a second question: who would be the second most-likely after him, and honestly, I'm kind of torn.
On one hand, the obvious answer is probably five-star freshman Boogie Fland. He's a dynamic playmaker who can take defenders off the bounce, shoot off the catch and is crafty at finishing in traffic. He can get a bucket in isolation situations while also being a quality facilitator.
Where I'm leaning more, though, is other star freshman Karter Knox. With his size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds), skillset and physicality, he exhibits shades of Joe Johnson in how he goes about scoring in isolation situations. He possesses great footwork, uses his body well to create space, and can post up smaller defenders if a mismatch presents itself.
As tough of a question as it is, I'll go with Knox, final answer.
