The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1, 0-0 SEC) are set to play the Auburn Tigers (2-1, 0-0 SEC) at 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama.
After narrowly defeating UAB at home last week, 37-27, the Hogs will look to start fast in conference play against a relatively "weak" Auburn team compared to the rest of Arkansas' schedule. Auburn overcame an ugly first-half performance to beat New Mexico, 45-19, a week ago at home.
Arkansas is a 3.5-point underdog against the Tigers (BetSaracen). The last time these two teams faced each other was last season, when the Razorbacks were handily defeated by the Tigers in Fayetteville, 48-10.
Here is how the HawgBeat staff is predicting Saturday's game, which will be broadcast on ESPN:
Mason Choate - Publisher
Aside from the game at Mississippi State later in the season, this is likely going to be the Razorbacks’ best shot at a road conference win — or maybe any conference victory — all year. Auburn is off to a shaky start, which was made clear by a change to a redshirt freshman quarterback after just the second game, which was a home loss to California.
Sam Pittman has lost on his home field two years in a row to Hugh Freeze. I’d venture to guess that Pittman is well aware of that, and that his team knows too. You’d like to think they’ve taken it personally, especially after Freeze’s Tigers laid it on with a 48-10 win last year. We don’t even need to get into the recruiting battles these two teams have been in.
This game has all the makings for another one-score loss for the Razorbacks with the opportunity to blame it on something like not having two key defensive backs available in Jaylon Braxton and Hudson Clark. As much as I’d like to predict the Razorbacks to keep the trend of the road team winning this matchup for the fourth year in a row (fifth if you think Bo Nix fumbled), they haven’t proved they can consistently win one-score games, which is what this will more than likely end up being.
Auburn 35, Arkansas 31
Riley McFerran - Managing Editor
Does Arkansas — and more importantly, Sam Pittman — have to win this game to have success the rest of the season? Technically no, but a defeat will drastically lower the excitement from fans and could potentially have a ripple effect across the roster in terms of team buy-in.
Much like BYU a year ago, this game serves as a jumping-off point for the Razorbacks to garner momentum and keep the positive vibes flowing ahead of a monstrous October. But, how exactly will it play out?
In my mind, the key battles are between Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green and Auburn's SEC-caliber defensive line, and redshirt freshman pass-first Tigers' signal caller Hank Brown and the Razorbacks' injury-laden secondary.
Green was less-than-steller in the pass game a week ago, but the talent gap between the Hogs and Blazers allowed the dual-threat weapon to get yards with his legs. Things won't necessarily come as easy against Auburn, as the Tigers have talented defenders like pass-rusher Keldrick Faulk, nose tackle Isaiah Raikes and linebacker Eugene Asante.
As for the other side of the coin, significant secondary contributors like Jaylon Braxton and Hudson Clark were listed as "out" for Arkansas in the latest SEC availability report, which doesn't bode well against a quarterback who's more comfortable sitting in the pocket. Now would be the time for Landon Jackson and the Hogs' pass-rush to break through this season.
This game is a coin flip. Both teams destroyed their Week 1 opponent, both lost in disappointing fashion in Week 2 and both lucked out with ugly victories in Week 3. The difference here lies with Jordan-Hare Stadium, where weird things always seem to happen and non-power-house road teams usually come up short.
A missed field goal in the closing seconds sends Arkansas home 0-1 in SEC play.
Auburn 30, Arkansas 28
Daniel Fair - Football Recruiting Analyst
After a heartbreaker against Oklahoma State and a dud against UAB, the Razorbacks need some positive momentum to start SEC play. At the same time, Auburn hasn’t had the season fans were hoping for, with a loss to Cal at home that led to quarterback Peyton Thorne being benched for redshirt freshman Hank Brown.
Last season’s matchup likely left a bad taste in Arkansas’ mouth, as it was a 48-10 blowout at Razorback Stadium with the Tigers offense doing whatever it wanted to the Razorbacks.
Ultimately, I think this game is decided by one score, and until the Hogs show me they can win one of those, I’m not picking them.
Auburn 31, Arkansas 27
Jackson Collier - Basketball Recruiting Analyst
The conference opener for the Razorbacks once again comes on the road, this time at Auburn. Eight of the last 10 conference openers for the Razorbacks have come away from Fayetteville, although the Arkansas football team has not played great at home of late, anyway.
This game marks a pivotal point of the season for the team and for head coach Sam Pittman. Oklahoma State was a major opportunity for Pittman and the team to set up positive momentum for the season and secure his job status a bit, but ultimately they failed in a double-overtime loss. Saturday against Auburn is as close to a must-win as it gets.
A loss would drop the Razorbacks to 2-2 (0-1 SEC), so technically there would be plenty of games left to right the ship, but looking ahead at the schedule, a loss to the Tigers would make finding four more wins to achieve bowl eligibility increasingly difficult.
Arkansas has a solid offense, a very good ground game, and an inconsistent defense. The team has played very well in spurts, closing the UAB game on a 34-10 run or jumping out to a 21-7 lead on Oklahoma State, but it has also played incredibly poor in spurts.
What this game will come down to is the Razorbacks' ability to finish drives on both sides of the ball and control the line of scrimmage. I'll give Arkansas the advantage to control the offensive line of scrimmage, but the defensive line remains a question mark at this point of the season despite the talent.
Untimely penalties and turnovers will have to be avoided to come away with a win at Jordan-Hare, and I think the team squeaks by with a victory after leaning heavily on the run game and controlling time of possession.
Arkansas 31, Auburn 27
Kevin Bohannon - Baseball Recruiting Analyst
The Hogs survived UAB last weekend. That statement doesn’t exude confidence when going on the road for your first SEC game a week later.
Arkansas has the better team, in my opinion, but the better team doesn’t always win in college football. Freeze will look to exploit some matchups in an injury-depleted secondary while Arkansas offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino will look to get quarterback Taylen Green confidence early with short quick passes and roll outs.
This game is simple when you look at the Hogs’ bowl chances, they must win this game. It’s unfortunate in saying that in the first conference game of the year but that’s where this program is right now. Hogs win a close one.
Arkansas 27, Auburn 24
RECORDS (Overall, Against the Spread)
Mason Choate: 3-0 overall, 1-2 ATS
Riley McFerran: 3-0 overall, 1-2 ATS
Daniel Fair: 2-1 overall, 2-1 ATS
Jackson Collier: 2-1 overall, 1-2 ATS
Kevin Bohannon: 2-1 overall, 1-2 ATS
