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The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4, 3-3 SEC) fell in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) following their 63-31 loss Saturday to the No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.


After coming in at 25th overall following their win over Mississippi State, the Razorbacks stumbled four spots to No. 29 off the back of the loss to Ole Miss in ESPN’s FPI this week.

Head coach Sam Pittman’s squad now has a 6.5-5.5 projected win total with a 97.0% chance of obtaining six wins during the season. On top of that, Arkansas now no longer has a chance at winning the SEC or making the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI.

According to ESPN, Arkansas now has the 14th-highest SOS (strength of schedule) and the 25th-best remaining SOS. The Razorbacks also slot in at No. 32 in Game Control rank, which reflects the chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end. Finally, Arkansas is No. 56 in average in-game win probability.

After 10 weeks of football, Arkansas dropped to No. 33 in the country in efficiency rankings, according to ESPN. This includes a 64.9 (No. 36) offensive rating.

The defensive rating moved down to 66.8 (No. 35) this week, and the special teams unit increased its rating to 44.2 (No. 90) after the Ole Miss game.

Compared to the rest of the SEC, the Razorbacks come in at No. 12 in the FPI just above, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi State. The Hogs look slightly better in the efficiency department, as they slot in at No. 11 in the SEC.

Following the upcoming bye week, Arkansas' next matchup will be at home against No. 6 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC), which ranks No. 1 in ESPN's FPI with a 71.8 offensive efficiency (20th) and 92.0 defensive efficiency (2nd).

Per ESPN analytics, Arkansas has a 16.2% chance of beating Texas on Nov. 16, a 94.7% chance of beating Louisiana Tech on Nov. 23 and a 39.4% chance of beating Missouri on Nov. 30.

The Razorbacks' game against the Longhorns will kick off at 11 CT at Razorback Stadium next Saturday. It will be broadcast on ABC or ESPN.

Arkansas has a new coach, completely new roster and a ton of excitement surrounding its basketball program entering the 2024-25 season.

Hall of Fame head coach John Calipari is set to officially take the reins as the Head Hog with his prototypical roster that consists of highly talented guards. His squad was ranked preseason No. 16 by the Associated Press (AP).

Expectations were high after the Razorbacks handled preseason AP No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks in a charity exhibition 85-69, and they remain at a good level despite the 66-65 exhibition loss to TCU in Dallas on Friday. After the Kansas win, Calipari was quick to remind the fanbase not to do backflips, but Razorback fans are feverishly awaiting the start of the season.

Keeping with the annual tradition at HawgBeat, I will be giving my preseason predictions for the Hogs' schedule. Here are my predictions since 2020:

2020 predictions: 21-5 (13-5)
2020 actual record: 21-5 (13-4) (Texas A&M game canceled)
2021 predictions: 20-11 (10-8)
2021 actual record: 24-7 (13-5)
2022 predictions: 26-5 (15-3)
2022 actual record: 19-12 (8-10)
2023 predictions: 22-9 (10-8)
2023 actual record: 16-17 (6-12)

*records do not include the SEC or NCAA Tournaments

Nov. 6 - Lipscomb: Win (1-0)​

Lipscomb head coach Lennie Acuff has drawn plenty of praise from high major head coaches over the offseason, including Calipari, as he has led the Bison to back-to-back 11-win seasons in the A-SUN.

Unfortunately for Acuff, his team will just be overmatched in Fayetteville.

Nov. 9 - Baylor (neutral): Loss (1-1)​

The Razorbacks certainly won't waste any time in testing themselves by facing off against preseason No. 8 Baylor at a neutral site. Head coach Scott Drew is one of the best in today's game, earning a top three seed in each of the last four NCAA Tournaments, including winning a national championship in 2021.

Drew dipped into the transfer portal and added Duke transfer Jeremy Roach and Miami transfer Norchad Omier, on top of bringing in five-star freshman V.J.

Edgecombe. They also return key backcourt contributors Langston Love and Jayden Nunn.

Baylor has a far more experienced roster, but the battle in the backcourt will be one of the best early matchups in all of college basketball. Drew's Baylor teams are known for having ferocious defensive backcourts, and the Razorbacks have a speedy combo in five-star freshman Boogie Fland and Kentucky transfer DJ Wagner, plus veteran wing Johnell Davis from Florida Atlantic.

The Razorbacks should be able to win on the glass and win in the paint if at full strength, but I am giving the edge to Baylor due to how early the game is in the season and how veteran of a team the Bears have.

Nov. 13 - Troy: Win (2-1)​

The Troy Trojans have emerged as one of the top teams in the Sun Belt Conference over the past three seasons, finishing third, fifth and fourth place in the regular season standings, respectively. But similarly to Lipscomb, the Trojans will likely just be too out-manned in Fayetteville.

Nov. 18 - Pacific: Win (3-1)​

Pacific finished winless in the West Coast Conference last season and has a first-year head coach in Dave Smart. There will likely be growing pains, and Smart inherited next-to-nothing.

Nov. 22 - Little Rock: Win (4-1)​

The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported in April that Little Rock head coach Darrell Walker interviewed for the open Razorback men's basketball coaching position. The Razorback legend remained at Little Rock, where he hopes to guide the Trojans to back-to-back regular season titles in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Walker grabbed high major talent in the portal in LSU transfer Mwani Wilkinson and Memphis transfer Johnathan Lawson. Perhaps the biggest offseason victory for Walker was returning first-team OVC guard KK Robinson, though he is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is out of action for the foreseeable future.

The Trojans might stick around for a bit and will have good length and athleticism compared to other early season matchups, but ultimately will likely come up short against the Razorbacks.

Nov. 25 - Maryland Eastern Shore: Win (5-1)​

Maryland Eastern Shore has produced just two winning conference records in the past decade in the MEAC. Last season, they finished No. 347 out of 362 division one programs on KenPom. The Hawks just won't have the talent to run with the Razorbacks.

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