I thought long and hard about what I could say in my 10,000th post on a Rivals Arkansas Chat Board that would interest all audiences, not offend anyone, and not put anyone to sleep…
Well, I’ve decided I couldn’t meet all those obligations so if I make you mad, bore you, or have a tranquilizing effect…please accept my humble apology
And then it struck me…the sheer magnitude of 10K posts. And I thought to myself, damn Son-you sure type a lot…
Some would say, “do you have a life?” Well, actually, quite a full one. There are lots of options to sitting here pounding away on my keyboard-celebrating, debating, and arguing with other Hawg fans. But why? In my many decades of life, there have been only a select few constants…
1). Family
2). Friends
3). Razorback Athletics
So, rather than lament the time I spend here conversing with the most knowledgeable Razorback fans in the world, I choose to embrace the opportunity & be on here as often as I choose to outside of work…
But, you didn’t click on this link to hear me rant regarding how good of a fan you & I are. Well, maybe you did. But I thought I would provide as I often TRY to do, a little humor-a little substance. At least enough to get some interest going. I’ve been working on a piece for a while that has foes & fans, believers & non-believers, critics & Champions that I saved for this momentous occasion.
STARS-DO THEY COUNT OR NOT?
As some of you know, I am a firm believer in the STAR system. I think the prognosticators who rate the kids on their athletic prowess know a little something more than us average Joe-the-Plumbers. Some quite a bit more, some a little more, and a select few who make their living plagiarizing what we posters put up on the board.
But, why is a 4 star more valuable than a 3 star? Is a 5 star a guaranteed NFL contract? Can a 2 star survive in DI football?
(Well, at Michigan he can…by the way, are they still playing DI football?)
But, I digress…
You’ll hear the saboteurs of the star system throw out names like HOUSTON & ANDERSON. And I’ll agree-those boys & that staff made them into top draft choices & padded their pockets with Franklins. I, as well as you, am very proud of their accomplishments. Wish either or both had decided to stay around for a Senior campaign, but they don’t do that at Arkansas. Or at least they didn’t under Nutt. (Always wondered why they did/do at saxeT)?
Oh well, on with our diatribe.
Where does a Luigs come from? A Burlsworth? Are they products of an inferior rating system, or just determined young men who rise above their High School accomplishments? Did their Testosterone kick in post Freshman year rather than early on? Was the coaching so vastly superior that it drove them to the magnificence they soon achieved? Was/Is Markuson so great that he can make Silver from a Sows ear?
OR, are those Diamonds in the Rough few and far between?
Will the strong teams be strong because of superior talent moreso than superior coaching? Can a group of 4-5 stars being coached by a Mack Brown win a National Championship? Or a Les Miles? Can the best talent simply beat every scheme, every tackle, every block & persevere despite questionable leadership/coaching?
Many on our board claim Darren McFadden was the best we’ve ever had. I tend to agree. Can we all chant at once what his star rating was? Yep, he was a 5…say it.
Let it roooolllll off your tongue. F I V E stars…
At lot of what I do at my job involves odds…sifting through thousands of possibilities and taking a series of absolutes to determine a pattern or lack of same. Then, correcting the negative impact of that pattern for the overall good of the company…
Well, I see and have seen that exact pattern in recruiting for as long as I have followed football. While far from an expert, I would think all of us who have been passionate for the game for years, or decades can safely say we might know a bit about college ball. My knowledge has increased many fold in the almost 6 years I have been on the premium Rivals site.
(By the way, don’t let the numbers fool you by some of the names…there were maybe 20 of us back when I signed up-lot’s of those 84 months badges are bogus).
And a lot of that knowledge has come from you, my Hawg Brethren. For that I thank you…
Let us continue on this long & winding road post. I’ve gathered through several intensive sit downs with coffee & Dell XPS the last 7 years of recruiting ranking vs. end year national ranking. It was pretty predictable given my penchant for equating talent with performance-at least my belief in that theory.
The top ranked teams in recruiting generally equate to the top ranked teams at the end of the year. Some take explosive freshmen classes & see immediate results; some take a year or two of maturity, some waste the talent gathered. But consistently the most talented classes resulted in demonstrated year end rankings at the top of the scale.
While most teams were predictable during this cycle, there were a few surprises. Everyone knows the “bonus” factor for signing with a USC, Texas, Florida, Michigan or Oklahoma. 3 stars become 4 stars, 4’s 5’s…
Prime example was played out recently with David Gordon-our CB signee from Tulsa. David was rated a 3 star by rivals, sitting at the #30 position in CB rankings for months-the FIRST 3 star as #29 & up were 4 & 5 stars for a select few. Then, when the rankings were updated, David was moved to the #31 slot, and a young man by the name of Toran Harris was moved into the #30 slot. 30 slot = 3 star right? It had for David for months, why would it change?… Nope, Toran Harris is the #30 CB in the nation, displacing David-he is a 4 star who has signed with? Drum roll please….USC.
Ergo, I am a star watcher, but a jaded one at times. That is why a USC can get pounded by a Duck or a Cardinal. Why an OU can get beat by a team with blue Astroturf…. While the rankings of talent do in most cases = game outcome, there are those select few times when upsets occur.
Without further deviation from our path, here are some observations from the 7 year trend rankings
?64 Teams made the top 25 in at least ONE year of star ratings
?Only TWO teams ranked in the top 25 recruiting AND top 20 final standings each & every year-saxeT & USC. USC scored NCAA Championships in 2003 & 2004, saxeT in 2005
?Oklahoma only missed out in one year, 2005 final rankings-they have had a top 25 recruiting class each and every year from 2002-2008
?Ohio State had only one miss, not ranked in the top 20 recruiting in 2003. Which might be graded as the biggest miss of all time as they were the DEFENDING National Champion-but could not parlay that success into recruitment the next year
?Georgia has only one miss-not being ranked in the final 2006 poll. While I am a Reicht fan, he may be in the final poll of “does less with more”
?Arkansas shows up ONE lonely time, a #15 ranking in 2006 at the end of the year-when a 5/4 & 4 star filled our backfield...
?Tennessee’s lack of recent success lets you know one reason Fuhlmer seat is a bit hot. Since 2005, they have only been ranked ONCE in the top 20 at the end of the year (#15 in 2007) & likewise only once in recruiting. Tennessee not too recently was a top 10 recruiting force
The national championship teams during this time frame were:
1. USC in 03 & 04. But also with a 3rd & two 4th place finishes. They also are the top recruiter. (And yes, no conference championship & play in a conference that has a losing record to the WAC this year)
2.Ohio State 02-Again, no conference championship & generally feast on the weak & meager. Let’s call it what it is, how would Ohio State or Michigan fare in the SEC? With monster games almost every weak & defenses that can run? It would be interesting to see…
3.LSU-07-As we all know, having Les Myles on the sideline is worth 3-7 points for the other team. Seems we beat them last year in Baton Rouge….Nonetheless, they have a top level star grade, a national championship & 6 top 20 finishes in the past 7 years
4. Texas-05-Again, having gentle Mack on the sidelines gives the other team a point bonus-but with YOUNG he had lightning in a bottle for one year. And THIS year the addition of Muschamp from Auburn was ingenious. Take one of the top DC’s in football, paired with Texas recruiting & you get domination.
5. Florida-06-Since the arrival of Meyer & Timmy, team has been on a roll. Has ranked in the top 15 three consecutive years, and likely will be the #1 conferences representative in the BCS thus year
These few schools dominate the recruiting & have parlayed that success into results on the field. There are others who are “fringe” teams that recruit well, but don’t see as much success….
Some of those are:
? Florida State-excellent recruiting with 4 classes ranking 3.8! Having the #1. #2 & #3 rated recruiting classes in the nation with their highest year end ranking AFTER those classes being #11 in 04
?MichiganHaving top rated recruiting classes ALL years, but no top 5 finishes
?Texas A&M-has three top rated recruiting classes, but zero top 20 finishes
Of course, there are a select few teams who go beyond recruiting-who actually CAN find that elusive Diamond in the Rough & polish it into a top 20 finish…
?Boise State-NO top 25 recruiting classes, but 4 top twenty finishes-and ranked there this year too
?Louisville-NO top 25 recruiting classes, but #6 final rankings in 03 & 06, #19 in 05
?Brigham Young-NO top 25 recruiting classes, with 3 top 20 rankings
Alas, in closing my fellow Hawgs, it is this fans opinion that while Coaching, Development & Research for that elusive Super Star Running Back hiding in Bugtussle, Mississippi are all important, you can only go so far with lesser talent. That if a team seriously wants to contend on an annual basis for the Crystal Trophy, they must win the recruiting warz first. That means being ranked no lower than the top 10 semi-frequently in recruiting…
NO TEAM in the past 7 years has won a National Championship without at least TWO top 5/10 recruiting classes leading up to their National Championship!
Thanks as always for reading my stuff! Everyone knows how much I enjoy posting on The Razors Edge. Hope I’ve made you think, laugh, cry or unfortunately even mad over the course of these 10,000 entries.
Regards,
HawgsRUs
Tony
Well, I’ve decided I couldn’t meet all those obligations so if I make you mad, bore you, or have a tranquilizing effect…please accept my humble apology
And then it struck me…the sheer magnitude of 10K posts. And I thought to myself, damn Son-you sure type a lot…
Some would say, “do you have a life?” Well, actually, quite a full one. There are lots of options to sitting here pounding away on my keyboard-celebrating, debating, and arguing with other Hawg fans. But why? In my many decades of life, there have been only a select few constants…
1). Family
2). Friends
3). Razorback Athletics
So, rather than lament the time I spend here conversing with the most knowledgeable Razorback fans in the world, I choose to embrace the opportunity & be on here as often as I choose to outside of work…
But, you didn’t click on this link to hear me rant regarding how good of a fan you & I are. Well, maybe you did. But I thought I would provide as I often TRY to do, a little humor-a little substance. At least enough to get some interest going. I’ve been working on a piece for a while that has foes & fans, believers & non-believers, critics & Champions that I saved for this momentous occasion.
STARS-DO THEY COUNT OR NOT?
As some of you know, I am a firm believer in the STAR system. I think the prognosticators who rate the kids on their athletic prowess know a little something more than us average Joe-the-Plumbers. Some quite a bit more, some a little more, and a select few who make their living plagiarizing what we posters put up on the board.
But, why is a 4 star more valuable than a 3 star? Is a 5 star a guaranteed NFL contract? Can a 2 star survive in DI football?
(Well, at Michigan he can…by the way, are they still playing DI football?)
But, I digress…
You’ll hear the saboteurs of the star system throw out names like HOUSTON & ANDERSON. And I’ll agree-those boys & that staff made them into top draft choices & padded their pockets with Franklins. I, as well as you, am very proud of their accomplishments. Wish either or both had decided to stay around for a Senior campaign, but they don’t do that at Arkansas. Or at least they didn’t under Nutt. (Always wondered why they did/do at saxeT)?
Oh well, on with our diatribe.
Where does a Luigs come from? A Burlsworth? Are they products of an inferior rating system, or just determined young men who rise above their High School accomplishments? Did their Testosterone kick in post Freshman year rather than early on? Was the coaching so vastly superior that it drove them to the magnificence they soon achieved? Was/Is Markuson so great that he can make Silver from a Sows ear?
OR, are those Diamonds in the Rough few and far between?
Will the strong teams be strong because of superior talent moreso than superior coaching? Can a group of 4-5 stars being coached by a Mack Brown win a National Championship? Or a Les Miles? Can the best talent simply beat every scheme, every tackle, every block & persevere despite questionable leadership/coaching?
Many on our board claim Darren McFadden was the best we’ve ever had. I tend to agree. Can we all chant at once what his star rating was? Yep, he was a 5…say it.
Let it roooolllll off your tongue. F I V E stars…
At lot of what I do at my job involves odds…sifting through thousands of possibilities and taking a series of absolutes to determine a pattern or lack of same. Then, correcting the negative impact of that pattern for the overall good of the company…
Well, I see and have seen that exact pattern in recruiting for as long as I have followed football. While far from an expert, I would think all of us who have been passionate for the game for years, or decades can safely say we might know a bit about college ball. My knowledge has increased many fold in the almost 6 years I have been on the premium Rivals site.
(By the way, don’t let the numbers fool you by some of the names…there were maybe 20 of us back when I signed up-lot’s of those 84 months badges are bogus).
And a lot of that knowledge has come from you, my Hawg Brethren. For that I thank you…
Let us continue on this long & winding road post. I’ve gathered through several intensive sit downs with coffee & Dell XPS the last 7 years of recruiting ranking vs. end year national ranking. It was pretty predictable given my penchant for equating talent with performance-at least my belief in that theory.
The top ranked teams in recruiting generally equate to the top ranked teams at the end of the year. Some take explosive freshmen classes & see immediate results; some take a year or two of maturity, some waste the talent gathered. But consistently the most talented classes resulted in demonstrated year end rankings at the top of the scale.
While most teams were predictable during this cycle, there were a few surprises. Everyone knows the “bonus” factor for signing with a USC, Texas, Florida, Michigan or Oklahoma. 3 stars become 4 stars, 4’s 5’s…
Prime example was played out recently with David Gordon-our CB signee from Tulsa. David was rated a 3 star by rivals, sitting at the #30 position in CB rankings for months-the FIRST 3 star as #29 & up were 4 & 5 stars for a select few. Then, when the rankings were updated, David was moved to the #31 slot, and a young man by the name of Toran Harris was moved into the #30 slot. 30 slot = 3 star right? It had for David for months, why would it change?… Nope, Toran Harris is the #30 CB in the nation, displacing David-he is a 4 star who has signed with? Drum roll please….USC.
Ergo, I am a star watcher, but a jaded one at times. That is why a USC can get pounded by a Duck or a Cardinal. Why an OU can get beat by a team with blue Astroturf…. While the rankings of talent do in most cases = game outcome, there are those select few times when upsets occur.
Without further deviation from our path, here are some observations from the 7 year trend rankings
?64 Teams made the top 25 in at least ONE year of star ratings
?Only TWO teams ranked in the top 25 recruiting AND top 20 final standings each & every year-saxeT & USC. USC scored NCAA Championships in 2003 & 2004, saxeT in 2005
?Oklahoma only missed out in one year, 2005 final rankings-they have had a top 25 recruiting class each and every year from 2002-2008
?Ohio State had only one miss, not ranked in the top 20 recruiting in 2003. Which might be graded as the biggest miss of all time as they were the DEFENDING National Champion-but could not parlay that success into recruitment the next year
?Georgia has only one miss-not being ranked in the final 2006 poll. While I am a Reicht fan, he may be in the final poll of “does less with more”
?Arkansas shows up ONE lonely time, a #15 ranking in 2006 at the end of the year-when a 5/4 & 4 star filled our backfield...
?Tennessee’s lack of recent success lets you know one reason Fuhlmer seat is a bit hot. Since 2005, they have only been ranked ONCE in the top 20 at the end of the year (#15 in 2007) & likewise only once in recruiting. Tennessee not too recently was a top 10 recruiting force
The national championship teams during this time frame were:
1. USC in 03 & 04. But also with a 3rd & two 4th place finishes. They also are the top recruiter. (And yes, no conference championship & play in a conference that has a losing record to the WAC this year)
2.Ohio State 02-Again, no conference championship & generally feast on the weak & meager. Let’s call it what it is, how would Ohio State or Michigan fare in the SEC? With monster games almost every weak & defenses that can run? It would be interesting to see…
3.LSU-07-As we all know, having Les Myles on the sideline is worth 3-7 points for the other team. Seems we beat them last year in Baton Rouge….Nonetheless, they have a top level star grade, a national championship & 6 top 20 finishes in the past 7 years
4. Texas-05-Again, having gentle Mack on the sidelines gives the other team a point bonus-but with YOUNG he had lightning in a bottle for one year. And THIS year the addition of Muschamp from Auburn was ingenious. Take one of the top DC’s in football, paired with Texas recruiting & you get domination.
5. Florida-06-Since the arrival of Meyer & Timmy, team has been on a roll. Has ranked in the top 15 three consecutive years, and likely will be the #1 conferences representative in the BCS thus year
These few schools dominate the recruiting & have parlayed that success into results on the field. There are others who are “fringe” teams that recruit well, but don’t see as much success….
Some of those are:
? Florida State-excellent recruiting with 4 classes ranking 3.8! Having the #1. #2 & #3 rated recruiting classes in the nation with their highest year end ranking AFTER those classes being #11 in 04
?MichiganHaving top rated recruiting classes ALL years, but no top 5 finishes
?Texas A&M-has three top rated recruiting classes, but zero top 20 finishes
Of course, there are a select few teams who go beyond recruiting-who actually CAN find that elusive Diamond in the Rough & polish it into a top 20 finish…
?Boise State-NO top 25 recruiting classes, but 4 top twenty finishes-and ranked there this year too
?Louisville-NO top 25 recruiting classes, but #6 final rankings in 03 & 06, #19 in 05
?Brigham Young-NO top 25 recruiting classes, with 3 top 20 rankings
Alas, in closing my fellow Hawgs, it is this fans opinion that while Coaching, Development & Research for that elusive Super Star Running Back hiding in Bugtussle, Mississippi are all important, you can only go so far with lesser talent. That if a team seriously wants to contend on an annual basis for the Crystal Trophy, they must win the recruiting warz first. That means being ranked no lower than the top 10 semi-frequently in recruiting…
NO TEAM in the past 7 years has won a National Championship without at least TWO top 5/10 recruiting classes leading up to their National Championship!
Thanks as always for reading my stuff! Everyone knows how much I enjoy posting on The Razors Edge. Hope I’ve made you think, laugh, cry or unfortunately even mad over the course of these 10,000 entries.
Regards,
HawgsRUs
Tony
