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Football HawgBeat's 10 Thoughts from the Weekend: Oct. 26, 2020

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1. Predicting the Hogs’ Final 6 Games - HUTCH

Before the season, I picked Arkansas to go 2-8 with wins over Ole Miss and Missouri. It was a reasonable pick at the time, but I worried it might be too optimistic.

As we leave the open week in our rear view mirror, though, I’m realizing it was too pessimistic of a prediction. The Razorbacks have already reached two wins and should really be 3-1 going into the final stretch of the season.

I mentioned last week that, after seeing Arkansas play its first four games, I felt like it has a decent chance to win in each of its next five games. Alabama to end the year still seems like a definite loss, but maybe not as bad as we all expected before the season. However, I wouldn’t go so far as to say the Razorbacks will win their next five games. I think the most likely scenario is they win two more games to go 4-6, which should - in my opinion - win Sam Pittman SEC Coach the of Year honors.

That said, here are my revised predictions the rest of the way...

@ Texas A&M: L - Until proven otherwise, I will continue to pick the Aggies in this series. I fully expect a heartbreaking loss of some sort.
vs. Tennessee: W - In years past, a heartbreaking loss would likely linger into the next week. That hasn’t been the case this year. I think Barry Odom’s unit dominates this game.
@ Florida: L - I was wrong when I said this about Mississippi State and Ole Miss, so I could be wrong again, but Arkansas could have its hands full against the Gators’ offense.
vs. LSU: W - I’m not sure if LSU will finish .500 this season. I knew the Tigers wouldn’t be nearly as good as last year, which is why I picked them to finish fourth in the West, but they are even worse than I thought.
@ Missouri: W - I still like my preseason pick of a 38-13 victory. Missouri has played better than I expected, but I still think Arkansas wins this game by a large margin.
vs. Alabama: L - The Crimson Tide are LOADED. Even without Jaylen Waddle the rest of the season, I don’t think anyone in the SEC is capable of beating them.

Maybe I’m getting too caught up in the 2-2 start and letting the excitement cloud my judgement...but I could legitimately see Arkansas going 5-5 this season. Give Pittman all of the National Coach of the Year honors.

2. Hogs are double-digit dogs - NIKKI

The line opened at -15 for Texas A&M hosting Arkansas on All Hallows' Eve. Vegas still doesn't know much about Barry Odom yet I guess. Odom with two weeks to scheme up Kellen Mond and the Aggie offense is a perfect scenario for the Hogs, as well as getting the majority of their injured players back. The line as of this morning on Bovada is 10.5.

Arkansas has been within a score of a win against the Aggies in the last three games and the players have been playing with more heart and motivation than in all those seasons. I think that's going to make a big difference on Saturday and why I'll definitely be picking the Hogs to cover, even if I don't pick them to pull an upset. Game's at 6:30 p.m.

3. Another Losing Streak to Watch - HUTCH

Speaking of the Texas A&M game, Arkansas will be trying to snap an eight-game losing streak against the Aggies.

It’s been an agonizing series for Arkansas fans, as the Razorbacks have had a chance to win each of the last sixth matchups. Three of those games went to overtime, two more ended with Arkansas driving to tie or win and the other was tight until Texas A&M had a goal line stop before scoring a 92-yard touchdown.

They’ve always come up short, though, and it’s now tied for the Razorbacks’ fifth-longest losing streak against a single opponent. The 14.1-point average margin is slightly worse than their other eight-game losing streak, but that drops to just 9.3 points if you factor out the 48-point massacre that started the losing streak in 2012.

I’m picking the Aggies to win again, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Arkansas finds a way to get it done. It is the year of snapping losing streaks, after all, as the Razorbacks ended their 10-game overall and 20-game SEC losing streak by beating Mississippi State and then ended their 12-game SEC home losing streak by beating Ole Miss.

t-1. Texas - 13 games, 1903-32 (avg. margin: 21.4 points)
t-1. Alabama - 13 games, 2007-present (avg. margin: 26.0 points)
3. Texas - 12 games, 1939-50 (avg. margin: 19.8 points)
4. Florida - 9 games, 1995-2013 (avg. margin: 22.1 points)
t-5. SMU - 8 games, 1947-54 (avg. margin: 13.5 points)
t-5. Texas A&M - 8 games, 2012-present (avg. margin: 14.1 points)

4. Total lack of awareness - NIKKI

This weekend I saw two teams pull some shit that would've fit right into the Chad Morris repertoire.

Up 21-20 with 1:46 left, Penn State running back Devyn Ford rushed for a score from 14 yards out instead of going down short of the goal line to run out the clock and secure the win. Penn State went up 28-20 after kicking an extra point. Indiana drove and scored with 22 seconds left. Then QB Michael Penix scores the 2-pt conversion by the narrowest margin and Indiana pulls off an upset, knocking Penn State down from No. 8 in the AP Top 25 to No. 18.

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You'd think everyone in football would take a mental note after that one..... but not Todd Gurley!

Gurley scored a TD for the Falcons that Lions players literally cheered for on the sideline. He scored despite having it drilled into his head moments earlier in the huddle that he needed to NOT SCORE.

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Matt Stafford and the Lions marched down the field and scored to win the game. Even after Gurley scored, Atlanta still had a 97% chance of winning, but yesterday was not their day.

5. Walk-Ons and Two-Stars - HUTCH

During the open week, I kept thinking about the Razorbacks’ incredible turnaround through the first four games of the season. Simply put, it’s mind-blowing how quickly Sam Pittman has not only made the program more respectable, but also a threat to actually win games.

I think the thing that amazes me the most is how many former walk-ons, current walk-ons and former two-star recruits are playing key roles. I mean, just look at this list of contributors on offense and defense…

~LB Grant Morgan - former walk-on (299 snaps)
~CB Jerry Jacobs - former two-star (249 snaps)
~CB Hudson Clark - current walk-on (212 snaps)
~WR Tyson Morris - former walk-on (202 snaps)
~TE Blake Kern - former walk-on (158 snaps)
~S Simeon Blair - former walk-on (151 snaps)
~LB Hayden Henry - former two-star (117 snaps)
~OL Ty Clary - former two-star (111 snaps)
~CB Khari Johnson - former two-star (90 snaps)
~LB Andrew Parker - former two-star (50 snaps)
~WR John David White - current walk-on (27 snaps)
~LB Jackson Woodard - current walk-on (5 snaps)

Those 12 players have combined for 1,671 total offensive or defensive snaps - or about 23.7 percent of the team’s snaps through four games. Think about that for a second. Nearly a quarter of the Razorbacks’ offensive and defensive snaps were played by current/former walk-ons or two-star recruits. Incredible.
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Game Notes for TAMU

HawkSavage1
Okay let's do this!

QB: Mond has a good bit of Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde to his game and the trend seems to have been Home vs Away. Now Vanderbilt at home week 1 would disprove that theory over time but he's also had a pretty serious history of struggling in openers. His negatives are his eyes betray him a ton. He seems confident in the pocket in the Florida game (their last home game) and his feet were smooth, but in their other three games this season his feet were erratic a good bit and as his feet go his accuracy on throws about 10 yards or further also goes. He's still athletic and has ability to escape the pocket when things breakdown but no one besides Bama, and not even them really, has hit him a ton this year so seeing pressure even at home might change him a good bit. One thing I really think stands out is he hasn't thrown the ball down field to his left really much at all, I don't know why but it's a weird trend.

RB: Isiah Spiller is the real deal. He's got good vision, breaks tackles well, and gains tough yards after contact. He's best downhill in the gap schemes and they run a ton of counter with him because of said vision. He's got some pretty light feet too but he's not a huge threat as a home run guy. He's a legit 6'1' 225 so we'll need to bring our hats to the party consistently for him. I also got a sense against Florida and Mississippi State that he has the ability to get better with more carries later in games so there's got to be a big focus on stopping him early in the game and hopefully make them play from behind some to limit getting him going over the span of a game. RB2 is a bit of a different deal. Anias Smith is the current RB2 but he has less than half the carries Spiller does. He's gadgety and they understand it well so he will spend some time as a slot guy for them and get touches that way as well as in the return game. He's an explosive guy but he does lack the tackle breaking ability and vision that Spiller has and that really limits his effectiveness as a downhill runner. All that's to say those the back that's in pretty much dictates what they'll be best at as an offense. They do throw to Spiller but Smith is their leading receiver even with him being in the backfield some.

WR: This is the worst unit on their offense by a pretty large margin. They've struggled to gain downfield separation and when you remove the way they've used RB's and TE's their WR's have accounted for just 41 of 81 (50.6%) total team completions for 540 of 1001 (54%) total passing yards. These percentages dip to 33% and 34.2% respectively when removing injured WR Caleb Chapman's production going into this game. They have had some inconsistencies dropping the ball and also the volume of targets to them is low in comparison to the rest of the league. #1 WR target Jhamon Ausbon opted out prior to the season to prepare for the job and the word out there was his successor 5* WR Demond Demas was supposed to be a #2 option for the year before being THE guy for Haynes King going forward. He hasn't come on and I'm not even sure I've seen him play in a game yet. He could be a factor against us with them looking for some options outside with a bye week to prepare. All in all I'm not scared of these guys. They haven't looked against worse and less talented secondary's than we have and we've also had a week to get ready for what they could have figured out. This is one of the few spots I think we have a clear advantage vs a dog fight.

TE: Jalen Wydermyer alone has accounted for 23.4% of the teams receptions and 18.4% of the teams receiving yardage. He's the real deal. His usage is a bit different from Kyle Pitts, the TE from Florida who I believe is the best TE in the country, but I do think he's similarly talented. Especially with the variety of zones we play he'll be a guy they'll use underneath a ton. He's yet to catch a TD this year so far but that's more a testament to Spiller and Anias Smith and Jimbo than a detriment at JW. He's another really big kid too at 6'5" 265 and he catches the ball in traffic really well. He doesn't come off the field when they decide to run the ball either, he's a physical blocker and I'd argue a piece that diagnoses where early down runs are headed. He's the setter for split zone and the secondary puller for the early down counter that they love with Spiller. He might be the read to getting them to uncomfortable situations with D&D early in the game. He's a bit of a mismatch for us overall and I'm excited to see BO adjust to take him away.

OL: They're good. They're really good. They're big. 65 is 6'5" 315, 55 is 6'4" 325, 77 is 6'5" 300, 73 is 6'5" 325, and 54 is 6'6" 320 for an average up front of 6'5" 317. They move well especially 55, he's the real deal, and 73. They pin front side and pull guards very well, especially to the left with 65, 55, and 77 getting a true down block and a front side double team and 73 pulling to move DE's and LB's well. That counter look with 73 kicking out the backside edge defender and 85 stacking backside LB's to give Spiller a two way go is the number one play that scares me because we will have to be a 4 down team and I think these guys will have some success moving Kelly, Nichols, Boykin, Carter, and Miller. Basically them running counter away from Grant and Marshall will be a problem in my opinion. They do a pretty solid job of not losing ground in the zone game either and do try to create the natural doubles that appear in zone schemes. They handle line games pretty well or at least they were prepared for the pressure package that Mississippi State brought them two weeks ago that includes tons of twists in the DL. 77 and 73 seem to be the weakest links in pure pass pro but their still serviceable in that regard.

Overall offensive notes: Theirs a big contrast between what we do stylistically on offense and what they do. The pace is dramatically different and I think the rosters speak to that. They're a bigger team than us and were bigger than Florida, MSU, and Vandy and they knew it, lined up and tried to run over them slowly. Mond still holds this team back with mistakes. They've only had to play behind or in a shootout in two games and they couldn't do it with Bama. Mond was lights out against Florida but Florida also had some head scratchers in their. This is the week BO pulls out another gem in a true 4-3 vs their 12 personnel or maybe an adjustment of Foucha as your 'Nickel' instead of GBJ because of his strengths coming downhill.
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Random Thoughts: Arkansas HS Football

HawkSavage1
Personally I think HS football in the state is as good right now as it's ever been top to bottom. Still not perfect by any means and their are plenty of schools that are underperforming with the kids they have all over the state. Still I had toyed around with what a Game of The Week around the state would look like to get good programs with talented kids (College Level Kids) playing against each other and honestly I love what that looks like. Just curious to you guys thoughts and what games you'd love to see or would replace on here.

Week 0: #1 Bryant vs #1 Benton (War Memorial). Preseason 7A and 6A #1 Teams face off in a neutral site game. Studs in game include Bryant's Knox twins, bookend 2022 tackles Brooks Edmonson (Kansas offer) and Will Diggins IV, Hog Baseball commit Austin Ledbetter and 2021 RB/LB Jamarien Bracey (Rison transfer). Benton also has 2022 RB Casey Johnson III.

Week 1: #13 Maumelle @ #1 Joe T. Robinson. This game has studs for days, especially with E'Marion Harris (State's #2 player in 2022) playing both ways meaning he'll block DT Nico Davillier (#3 Player in 2022) and have to defend against OT Andrew Chamblee (#4 in 2022). You also have JTR's RB duo of 2021 James Jordan and 2022 Daryl Searcy Jr who both have FBS offers and Maumelle features 2021 DB/Return man Dashaire Ford-Burton (Camden-Fairview transfer with offers from Austin Peay, Hendrix and others).

Week 2: #2 Osceola @ #12 Gosnell. There's speed for days here with 2022 #10 overall player and #2 RB Travelle Anderson along with #17 overall player and #5 OL Tedarian Blair from Gosnell as the biggest names to watch. Both already have P5 offers, and Anderson is on the Hogs radar! Osceola is always fast as well and DeAnthony Poole might be the most slept on kid in the state because he missed last season with an injury. The kid can absolutely fly though.

Week 3: #6 LR Parkview @ #13 Pine Bluff. Parkview takes 3 of the states best in Arkansas commits Landon Rogers and Erin Outley, and 2022 #6 OVR #1 RB James Jointer Jr to the Zebra Den to play one of if not the fastest defense in the state, anchored by All-State DT Bradley Clark.

Week 4: #1 Fordyce @ #10 Clarendon. Defending State Champ Fordyce brings Ja'Quez Cross (South Dakota State commit, offers from ULM, stAte, and Syracuse) and Carson Williams (#13 OVR in 2022, ULM offer) vs #75 national #1 Player in Arkansas Quincey McAdoo. Pretty much speaks for itself.

Week 5: #1 Fordyce @ #2 Junction City. Although I didn't want to use any games twice, Southern Arkansans know that this game in a regular year is standing room only. On top of that they split games last year with Fordyce's win being the state championship. Tough finding a better matchup than this one.

Week 6: #3 North Little Rock @ #15 LR Southwest. This one is intriguing mainly because there's no clue what Southwest will be with the COVID19 offseason leading into the schools first football season but there are kids walking the halls there that can play ball. Then perennial 7A power NLR comes down the road with Kareame Cotton returning at QB and Fred O'Donald finally healthy at RB.

Week 7: #6 Warren @ #32 DeWitt. DeWitt's going to be better than #32. How much better depends on a quartet of Arkansas Commit #7 OVR #1 TE Dax Courtney, 2023 OG Will Moss (Kansas offer), 2021 LB Logan Moss (Multiple D2 offers), and 2022 RT Tanner Strickland (6'5" 280). We know what Warren is about. Tre' Marshall is the dude there this year.

Week 8: #1 Pulaski Academy @ #2 Little Rock Christian. This rivalry of title favorites is very similar to Fordyce/JC. Same situation, last played for the state championship with PA bringing it home. Most exciting match-up here is stAte commit Corey Platt Jr. doing his best to contain explosive RB/WR Joe Himon (2022 #12 OVR #3 RB, offers from stAte, Memphis, and SMU).

Week 9: #10 FS Northside @ #7 Cabot. 2021 #1 OVR player Texas A&M commit Dreydan Norwood vs UCA QB commit Tyler Gee, stAte WR commit Marlon Crockett, and 2022 DE Justin Sobczak.

Week 10: #23 Smackover @ #7 McGhee. The show here is 2023 WR D'Kylan Hildreth for Smackover and senior QB/FS Austin Goodwin taking on DE's Elijah White and Deontae Bass. All four will play somewhere on Saturdays at some level.
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