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From
@DanielFair
The Arkansas Razorbacks (7-2, 0-0 SEC) will be on the national stage for another marquee matchup Tuesday as they take on the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (8-1, 2-0 Big 10) in the Jimmy V Classic at the iconic Madison Square Garden.
Arkansas remained outside the AP Top 25 on Monday, while Michigan jumped all the way to No. 14. The Wolverines have rattled off seven straight wins, two of which came against ranked opponents (No. 22 Xavier and No. 11 Wisconsin).
This is the seventh time the Razorbacks and Wolverines have faced off, one of which came in the 1997 NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. Michigan took a 77-62 win over Arkansas en route to winning the entire tournament that year.
Michigan is led by first-year head coach Dusty May, who took over the Wolverines program after a successful stint at Florida Atlantic, where he coached Arkansas guard Johnell Davis. He brought in several transfers who play main roles for the team, which includes two seven-foot big men who get the bulk of the attention.
Here's HawgBeat's preview of what you need to know about the Michigan Wolverines ahead of Tuesday's contest, including analytics, potential starting lineups and more...
Michigan personnel preview
It's become a trend for most college basketball programs around the country, but Michigan has a newly-built roster that May put together in the offseason. He had three returners from last season's team, so he brought in six transfer players and four freshmen, one of whom has played key minutes for the Wolverines.
Michigan has a pair of big men who will be a focal point of the offense in Vladislav Goldin (Florida Atlantic transfer) and Danny Wolf (Yale transfer). They run a lot of pick-and-roll action between them in the high and low post, and it's worked well for them. They're both averaging 12.1 points per game and shooting at high marks from the field.
"We’re all pretty familiar with the team cause Nelly played for their coach, so we’ve got a little insight from him," Arkansas forward Trevon Brazile said Saturday. "We know they’re going to be physical, we know they’re going to do pick and rolls with the four and five, so we’ll go over that for the next couple days."
Goldin isn't a threat from deep, but Wolf has shown the ability to knock down the three-ball, so Arkansas will need to be on its A-game in defending the pick-and-pop.
One transfer who has previous experience against the Razorbacks is Tre Donaldson, who went to Michigan after two seasons at Auburn. He only averaged 6.7 points per game last season for the Tigers, but he nearly had a double-double against Arkansas last year as he finished with 11 points and seven rebounds in a 83-51 win at Bud Walton Arena back in January.
Donaldson has had a much bigger role at Michigan this year and has started all nine games for the Wolverines. He's averaging 12.1 points, 2.9 rebounds and four assists per game and is shooting 48.7% from the field. He's become a bigger threat to shoot the three since he joined the Wolverines and owns a 45.5% three-point percentage.
Michigan's leading scorer is Roddy Gayle Jr., a transfer from Ohio State who is averaging 12.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. Donaldson is the guy who runs the point, but Gayle is good at distributing the ball and has great court vision to find opportunities for his teammates.
Nimari Burnett is one of the key returners from last year's Michigan squad. He's not a lethal scorer and only averages 8.9 points per game, but he is a capable shooter, especially when he gets the ball in catch-and-shoot situations. His best offensive game came against Miami (Ohio) when he hit four threes and finished with 18 points.
Analytics preview
The KenPom analytics have Arkansas behind Michigan in all three main categories. The Wolverines are No. 22 overall, No. 11 in defensive efficiency and No. 43 in offensive efficiency, while the Hogs are No. 45 overall, No. 75 in offensive efficiency and No. 19 in defensive efficiency.
The Razorbacks play at a faster pace than the Wolverines do, and that's how Arkansas has played its best so far this season. The Hogs are No. 77 in tempo while Michigan is No. 108.
Where Arkansas can take advantage of Michigan and use that tempo to its advantage is in the turnover department. The Wolverines average the 22nd-most giveaways in the country with 15.1 per game, while the Razorbacks force 15.2 per game on average.
If the Hogs can take advantage of the Wolverines' mistakes, it could lead to more transition offense, which is exactly how Arkansas took the win against UTSA on Saturday. In the first half, Arkansas forced just two turnovers and only scored two points off those. In the second half, however, the Hogs forced seven and scored 16.
As mentioned above, Michigan's two seven-footers are a focal point of the team's game. They run a lot of pick-and-roll action through them, but Wolf is the one Arkansas will need to focus on the most.
The Yale transfer averages a double-double with 12.1 points and 10 rebounds per game, but he also has deceptively good ball handling that can make him a nightmare to guard.
The flip side of that ball handling is that it has gotten him into trouble as well. He has the highest usage rate of the main contributors on the team at 24.3%, but also owns the highest turnover rate at 28.5%.
With such a size-heavy lineup, rebounding will be a major key in this matchup. Michigan averages 38.6 total rebounds per game and 11.8 of those come on the offensive end. Wolf and Goldin make up the bulk of those and have the highest rebound rates on the team at 20.5% and 12.7%, respectively.
Potential starting lineups
Possible Arkansas Starting Lineup
Pos. | Name | Measurables | Stats |
---|
| | | |
PG | Boogie Fland | 6-2, 175 lbs. | 15.9 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 4.9 Ast |
SG | D.J. Wagner | 6-4, 195 lbs. | 8.7 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 2.9 Ast |
SF | Johnell Davis | 6-4, 210 lbs. | 8.4 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 2.1 Ast |
PF | Adou Thiero | 6-8. 220 lbs. | 19.1 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 1.7 Ast |
C | Jonas Aidoo | 6-10, 240 lbs. | 2.7 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 0.3 Ast |
Aidoo made his first start of the season against UTSA last Saturday, and with the threat down low Michigan has, the Hogs will need him to be the All-SEC-level center he is. One potential change we might see is for Arkansas to go with Ivisic (if he's healthy) at the four to add more size and length to the frontcourt.
Possible Michigan Starting Lineup
Pos. | Name | Measurables | Stats |
---|
| | | |
PG | Tre Donaldson | 6-3, 195 lbs. | 12.1 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 4.0 Ast |
SG | Roddy Gayle Jr. | 6-5, 205 lbs. | 12.2 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 3.4 Ast |
SF | Nimari Burnett | 6-5, 200 lbs. | 8.9 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 1.6 Ast |
PF | Danny Wolf | 7-0, 250 lbs. | 12.1 Pts, 10.0 Reb, 2.9 Ast |
C | Vladislav Goldin | 7-1, 250 lbs. | 12.0 Pts, 5.4 Reb, 0.8 Ast |
This starting five is what Michigan has put on the floor in each of the last five games, and it doesn't seem like it will change.
Wrapping it up
It's not a big stretch to say this matchup is the toughest test for Arkansas so far this season. They played Baylor and Illinois earlier this year, but Michigan presents a much different challenge, and it's happening on a massive stage at an well-known venue.
The trend for Arkansas in recent games has been a slow and sluggish start, and while the Hogs were able to overcome those against Miami and UTSA last week, this is not the opponent to try that with. They need to come out fast, in-sync and firing on all cylinders so they don't have to dig themselves out of a double-digit hole like they tried to against Illinois.
For Arkansas' sake, the Razorbacks need both Ivisic and Aidoo healthy and prepared to play at peak performance. They can't have lackluster production down low and expect Michigan to not take advantage.
Arkansas and Michigan will tip off from Madison Square Garden at 8 p.m. on Tuesday. The game will air on ESPN.