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Hoops Analytical look at Hoop Hogs ahead of Baylor game

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From @masonchoate:

First-year head coach John Calipari's 16th-ranked Razorbacks hit the hardwood for the first official time Wednesday in a 76-60 win over Lipscomb to provide a glimpse at what this year's squad will look like.

The win over the Bisons moved Arkansas up one spot to 28th in the rankings provided by KenPom, which is a predictive system that provides ratings, analytics and much more. Lipscomb moved down one spot to 127th in the KenPom ratings after the loss.

Guard Johnell Davis earned team MVP honors from KenPom's system with an offensive rating of 112 (points produced divided by possessions used) after a 15-point performance with six rebounds, one assists, one block and one steal.

Freshman Karter Knox had the team's highest offensive rating (137), while fellow freshman Boogie Fland's usage rate of 26% was the highest of any Razorback.

Notably, the Hogs rank 10th nationally with a defensive rating of 93.4 after the opener. Calipari has had 11 teams make the NCAA Tournament with top-30 defensive rating, and nine of those teams made the Elite Eight, four made the Final Four, two made the national championship and one won the whole thing.

The updated projected record for Arkansas from KenPom is 20-11 with a 10-8 mark in conference play. KenPom projects the Hogs to lose to No. 8 Baylor on Saturday, 77-76.

The Razorbacks have a strength of schedule rating of 143rd, according to KenPom. That number will go up soon, as Baylor will be a tough test Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CT inside American Airlines Center in Dallas. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU.

Below is a closer look at some of the numbers for the Razorbacks...

Rankings​


AP: 16th
Coaches: 16th
KenPom: 28th
BartTorvik: 35th
EvanMiya: 31st

Stats​


Scoring offense: 76.0 (t-213th)
Scoring defense: 60.0 (t-97th)
Assists: 10.0 (t-284th)
Field goal percentage: 54.0 (t-66th)
3-point percentage: 21.1 (316th)
Free throw percentage: 57.1 (293rd)
Rebounds: 35.0 (t-225th)
Blocks: 5.0 (t-83rd)
Steals: 11.0 (t-55th)

KenPom​


KenPom Analytics
CategoryOffenseDefense
Adj. Efficiency111.9 (54th)93.4 (10th)
Avg. Poss. Length15.6 (71st)17.6 (176th)
Effective FG%57.1 (73rd)45.7 (93rd)
Turnover%16.2 (100th)25.6 (23rd)
Off. Reb%20.0 (233rd)14.7 (13th)
FTA/FGA11.1 (269th)15.5 (19th)
2P%68.2 (23rd)41.9 (70th)
FT%57.1 (229th)77.8 (206th)
Block%2.3 (21st)16.1 (44th)
Steal%10.8 (160th)14.8 (37th)
Non-Stl TO%5.4 (63rd)10.8 (52nd)

Football Razorbacks aiming to avoid end-of-season defensive disaster

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Arkansas football’s collapse in Saturday’s home blowout loss to Ole Miss may be the start of a striking trend for Travis Williams’ defensive unit.

Last season, Williams’ first as a member of Arkansas’ coaching staff, the Hogs got off to a relative rip-roaring start against opposing offenses. It held teams like Ole Miss (27), Alabama (24) and Mississippi State (7) to low point totals and kept the team in games more often than not.

But then, the final four games happened. After an Oct. 28 bye week, Williams’ squad surrendered 36 points (at Florida), 48 points (vs. Auburn), 20 points (vs. FIU) and 48 points (at Missouri). Those teams averaged 405.5 total yards against Arkansas' defense.

Fast forward to the present, and the beginning of a startling parallel has potentially emerged. So far, Arkansas has kept teams like Auburn (14), Texas A&M (21) and Tennessee (14) at bay point-wise. To start a four-game close to the regular season against the Rebels, however, the Razorbacks were completely dismantled to the tune of 63 points and 694 yards allowed.

Is that a sign that Arkansas’ defense is about to let go of the rope similar to last season? For head coach Sam Pittman’s sake, the Hogs better hope it’s a coincidence and not a trend.

"Well, I mean each team is different," Pittman said after the Ole Miss game. "I know what you’re talking about in that we’ve played really well and then we haven’t. I understand the question and I think it’s a fair question. But teams are different."

Fortunately for Arkansas, it has one final bye this week to fix some of its mishaps, whether that's possibly tipping plays to offenses or failures in the secondary. Unfortunately for Arkansas, it has a daunting matchup against No. 5 Texas and its No. 16 total offense coming up Nov. 16.

That isn't exactly a recipe for success, and star Arkansas pass-rusher Landon Jackson knows the Hogs have to figure things out to avoid another end-of-season defensive disaster.

"We've got a whole new team this year, so really try not to look back on last year and compare it," Jackson said after the Ole Miss game. "I mean, we definitely have to have a reality check as a team and really just come down to earth and figure out what we need to get better at and get better at it. And yeah, I mean, just can't let it happen again.

"Got to learn from our mistakes, and overall get better as a defense because past few games, we've allowed too many points. Even Mississippi State game, offense saved us because we still allowed almost 30 points. So really, just figure it out and overall just start playing better ball."

Up next, Arkansas will welcome the Texas Longhorns to Razorback Stadium next Saturday. That game will kick off at 11 a.m. CT and will be broadcast on ABC.

Lipscomb at Duquesne & Baylor at Gonzaga

Hope everyone is staying safe out there with this weather tonight.

Getting this up a little early so you can make evening plans.

Arkansas will play Lipscomb on Wednesday at BWA and Baylor on Saturday at American Airlines Center in Dallas. Both Lipscomb and Baylor play tonight, so we are all scouting.

Lipscomb at Duquesne — 7 p.m. CT on ESPN+ (Watch link) (Live stats)

No. 8 Baylor at No. 6 Gonzaga — 10:30 p.m. CT on ESPN2 (Watch link) (Live stats)

Hoops Know the Foe: Gaining Baylor insight with The Baylor Lariat

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As we will do throughout this basketball season, HawgBeat went behind enemy lines with The Baylor Lariat's Jackson Posey to gain insight on the No. 8 Baylor Bears.

Baylor opened its season Monday with a 101-63 loss to No. 6 Gonzaga inside Spokane Arena, a game that saw former Duke transfer Jeremy Roach score nine points and former Miami transfer Norchad Omier total 15 points and nine boards.

Starting for the Bears in their loss to the Bulldogs were senior Roach, senior Omier, freshman guard V.J. Edgecombe, senior guard Jayden Nunn and junior foward Josh Ojianwuna. Nunn and Ojianwuna return from a Baylor team that finished 24-11 (11-7 Big 12) a year ago, while Edgecombe is a former five-star prospect.

Here is what Posey had to say about Saturday's matchup between Arkansas and Baylor, which is set to tip off at 6:30 p.m. CT at American Airlines Center in Dallas...

1. To address the elephant in the room (and for those who couldn't stay up to watch), what happened for Baylor in its big loss to Gonzaga? Was it fluke-ish, or is there something there for the Hogs to exploit?​


Posey: Gonzaga had something few teams do in modern college basketball: continuity. Six of their top seven scorers from last season returned, while Baylor only returned one starter (Jayden Nunn) and three rotation players overall. The talent is there, and the talent is cohesive in a vacuum, but it’ll take a while for this team to gel.

Two things that Arkansas will be game-planning for: 1) Awkward offensive sets as the Bears build chemistry and 2) Defensive miscommunications, for the same reason. There were a lot of your-turn-my-turn possessions and poor scramble drills against Gonzaga. This team was built for March; the Razorbacks are getting them at the right time.

2. Most fans know about former transfers Jeremy Roach (Duke) and Norchad Omier (Miami), but what other major newcomers comprise Baylor's roster?​


Posey: The freshmen! VJ Edgecombe is a top-five recruit with absolutely game-breaking athleticism, he was dunking on NBA centers for The Bahamas at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament this summer. And fellow five-star Robert O. Wright III is one of my favorite prep guards I’ve ever evaluated. He’s a bit raw at the moment but he’s lightning in a bottle with a sky-high ceiling.

3. Both Arkansas and Baylor have experienced guards and young, highly-touted guards (most notably DJ Wagner vs. Roach and Boogie Fland vs. VJ Edgecombe). How do those backcourts match up against each other?​


Posey: Baylor has a fleet of sharpshooting guards. Between starters Jeremy Roach and Nunn, plus backups Wright and Langston Love (who missed Monday’s game but should be healthy Saturday), the Bears have four guards who could legitimately shoot 40% from three on high volume.

Throw in VJ Edgecombe, who’s a high-intensity impact defender and rebounder, and there’s a ton of talent out on the perimeter. No one has emerged yet as a true playmaking lead guard, so look for a lot of guys to get reps running the offense.

4. When Baylor is clicking, what does that look like under Scott Drew? What kind of offensive/defensive systems does he run?​


Posey: Motion, motion, motion. This team can drill threes, and with Edgecombe and Norchad Omier's elite rim pressure, the Bears’ inside-outside game could be deadly once they start clicking. They were still working out the kinks against Gonzaga, but if everything goes right, they have the potential to be a top-five offense nationally.

5. How do you see this game playing out?​


Posey: I don’t have any qualms saying Baylor is one of the most talented teams in the country, but it’s going to take more time and a lot more reps to start clicking. Saturday could go either way, but give me the Razorbacks in a close one.

Five-star Meleek Thomas includes Arkansas in final three

Five-star guard Meleek Thomas, the nation's No. 7 overall player in the 2025 class, will announce his commitment Nov. 11th, he announced on Instagram. The Overtime Elite prospect will be deciding between Arkansas, Pittsburgh, and UConn.

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Thomas' recruitment has taken some turns along the way, as he was once thought to be a heavy favorite to go to the back-to-back national champion Huskies back in the summer. Months later, the defending champs are still under consideration for the elite prospect's commitment.

Head coach John Calipari and Arkansas are also battling hometown program Pittsburgh for Thomas. The Panthers have heavily recruited the Midland product for quite some time.

The 6-foot-4 guard is one of the most gifted offensive players in his class. A true three-level scorer, he primarily functions as an off-ball guard and wing, but can handle the ball and initiate an offense, as well.

Thomas has received five FutureCast predictions to Arkansas since October 7th, including from HawgBeat basketball analyst Jackson Collier. If Thomas does end up at Arkansas, the Razorbacks would arguably have the best backcourt duo committed in the 2025 class with him and five-star point guard Darius Acuff Jr.

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Hoops Social media reacts to Arkansas' 76-60 win over Lipscomb

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On a picture-perfect night in Fayetteville, the Arkansas basketball team (1-0) defeated the Lipscomb Bisons (0-1), 76-60, in front of a sparse crowd inside Bud Walton Arena.

After a shaky start to start the game, the Hoop Hogs dialed up the defensive pressure and let their work in transition do the talking to close the first half with a 39-28 advantage.

Lipscomb didn't waver in the second half — the Bisons got it down to a three-point deficit at one point — but Arkansas' talent and defense held firm to close out the season-opening victory.

Arkansas graduate senior guard Johnell Davis played live everyone expected after a slow preseason start, as he finished with 15 points, six rebounds and only two turnovers. Leading the Razorbacks in scoring was freshman guard Boogie Fland, who shot 7-of-18 from the field for 17 points.

Throughout and following the win, Arkansas fans and media made their opinions known about the basketball team on social media:

CLICK HERE FOR SOCIAL MEDIA REACTIONS

Hoops Johnell Davis blossoms in physical Arkansas debut

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After a slow start in two preseason exhibition games, Arkansas graduate senior guard Johnell Davis blossomed in the Razorbacks' season-opening 76-60 win over Lipscomb on Wednesday night inside Bud Walton Arena.

The former highly-touted Florida Atlantic transfer shot 7-of-12 from the floor (58.3%) with six rebounds, one assist, one steal, one block and only two turnovers. According to HogStats, Davis is the first Razorback since Marshawn Powell in 2009 with 15+ points, 6+ rebounds, 1+ blocks and 1+ steals in a debut game.

Head coach John Calipari pointed out Davis' physicality as a stand-out feature of his performance.

RELATED: Razorback Freshman Report: Fland leads all scorers vs. Lipscomb

"Well, you know what he did? He went at the rim," Calipari said after the game. "Like we need, I kept saying, why are you shooting jump shots? Go to the rim, and he did it. You know, just go by people.

"Now, you may get bumped. It’s a harder play than shooting a jump shot. You go in, there’s a chance you might lose it. He may block it. He might bump you. How about this thought? I may miss a layup. If I miss a jump shot or a three, I’m okay. But if I miss a layup, that’s embarrassing. You can’t be in that mode. Just go."

Davis was one of Arkansas' top transfer portal pickups over the offseason not only for his prolific scoring ability, but because of his efficient shooting from deep (41.4% on 140 attempts with the Owls last season).

The 6-foot-4 guard only shot 1-of-4 from three against the Bisons — a microcosm of the Razorbacks' 4-of-19 three-point shooting as a team — but that hasn't swayed Calipari from believing the shots will start falling.

"You want to shoot threes? Make threes," Calipari said. "Get in that gym. Prove it in the game. Create opportunities for each other so you can start making them. Throw it ahead. Drive the ball. Swing it, swing it. Three in transition."

Arkansas was up as much as 15 points over Lipscomb before the Bisons made things interesting with a 9-0 run in the second half, even getting the deficit to as little as three points. Despite the uneasy feeling from fans in Bud Walton Arena, Davis said he was never worried about finishing strong.

RELATED: Social media reacts to Arkansas' 76-60 win over Lipscomb

"Nah no nervousness," Davis said after the game. "As a basketball player you go get jitters before the game, but all that goes away once the ball gets tipped...I've been playing college basketball for four years."

Big man Arkansas teammate Zvonimir Ivisic, who finished with 12 points all in the second half, praised Davis for his off-ball tenacity and motivation.

"First of all, you just saw how he follows the players," Ivisic said after the game. "Steal balls, rebounds, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds. Going strong all the time. When we see him, all of us, even bench players, when we see him, how he fights. It motivates us, so he’s a DOG."

Up next, the No. 16 Arkansas basketball team (1-0) will travel to Dallas to face the No. 8 Baylor Bears (0-1) inside American Airlines Center on Saturday. That game will tip-off at 6:30 p.m. CT and will be broadcast on ESPNU.
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