OT 100% NOT the Official Off-Topic/Politics/Corona Thread

[HTHog]

We have the best scientists in the world, I’m sorry but I’m gunna go with their recommendations every single time. If you don’t wanna listen or believe them that this was the best course of action I guess you’ll just be forever wondering what would’ve happened

Go with their recommendations? What does that have to do with whether or not they fudged the numbers higher intentionally?

Nikkie, our own @mcbmd even said that the original estimates from Imperial that had published were beneficial in getting people to pay attention. He said "The Imperial College report was probably the eye-opener we needed though to start taking this seriously. That 2.2 million number that was quoted for the US was assuming that the status quo was continued - no school closures, no social distancing, etc. It will be impossible to know whether that model was accurate, but had they projected 50000 deaths in the US, for instance, everyone would say "This is no different than the flu" and no changes would have been implemented. "

He admits that these numbers would have an impact on people's perceptions and willingness to "take one for the team" so to speak. So knowing this, you do not think that they used other subsequent projections to their benefit? Lol...

 

[mikedamone]

So far, what they've recommended for us to do has worked

It was impossible for it not to work. It’s a much more difficult question than that to answer whether it was right or wrong.

 

[nikkichavanelle]

It was impossible for it not to work. It’s a much more difficult question than that to answer whether it was right or wrong.

UK, like Sweden, also started off with a lax approach and they ended up having to close down. Sweden is nearing the point of having to close things down as well

 

[nikkichavanelle]

Go with their recommendations? What does that have to do with whether or not they fudged the numbers higher intentionally?

Nikkie, our own @mcbmd even said that the original estimates from Imperial that had published were beneficial in getting people to pay attention. He said "The Imperial College report was probably the eye-opener we needed though to start taking this seriously. That 2.2 million number that was quoted for the US was assuming that the status quo was continued - no school closures, no social distancing, etc. It will be impossible to know whether that model was accurate, but had they projected 50000 deaths in the US, for instance, everyone would say "This is no different than the flu" and no changes would have been implemented. "

He admits that these numbers would have an impact on people's perceptions and willingness to "take one for the team" so to speak. So knowing this, you do not think that they used other subsequent projections to their benefit? Lol...

Yes, he said it was the eye-opener. He didn't say that the models were false, or fudged or over exaggerated. It was worst-case scenario, which yeah, does tend to scare.

 

[HTHog]

I just don't think the stance of "let's return to business as usual" because 4/5 of those that die are old anyway is a good approach. Maybe I'm wrong.

Well that's overstating things. Who has said they want that? Both of my folks are over 80 and I have avoided seeing them for 3 weeks now.

I'm not advocating that we all go back to how things were in January immediately. Step by step is the way to do it. Keep the LARGE gatherings canceled. No games. No conventions. Make groups of 50 or less ok so restaurants and bars can open back up. Try to be diligent in observing the 6 foot rule where you can. Keep the over 70 crowd at home for a bit longer. Continue to not visit your older parents or grandparents. No visitors allowed at Hospitals and Nursing Homes. Let offices start opening with half staff coming every other day or something like that.

I'll tell you this. if they don't start hinting at ending this stuff soon, the people will just start doing it on their own. The numbers that are coming out are pissing a lot of folks off who have been hurt from this thing. There's no reason that people in Alma Arkansas (just throwing out a name) should be held hostage in their own homes for 2 months because NYC has a bunch of people dying from this. Change the "one size fits all" response to a more defined regional approach based on current conditions.

 

[HTHog]

Yes, he said it was the eye-opener. He didn't say that the models were false, or fudged or over exaggerated. It was worst-case scenario, which yeah, does tend to scare.

I didn't say he did. Sigh.............

I used that as proof that high numbers would make people pay attention. Then I said "knowing this, you do not think that they used other subsequent projections to their benefit? "

To which you didn't respond.

 

[eezycheez]

Well that's overstating things. Who has said they want that? Both of my folks are over 80 and I have avoided seeing them for 3 weeks now.

I'm not advocating that we all go back to how things were in January immediately. Step by step is the way to do it. Keep the LARGE gatherings canceled. No games. No conventions. Make groups of 50 or less ok so restaurants and bars can open back up. Try to be diligent in observing the 6 foot rule where you can. Keep the over 70 crowd at home for a bit longer. Continue to not visit your older parents or grandparents. No visitors allowed at Hospitals and Nursing Homes. Let offices start opening with half staff coming every other day or something like that.

I'll tell you this. if they don't start hinting at ending this stuff soon, the people will just start doing it on their own. The numbers that are coming out are pissing a lot of folks off who have been hurt from this thing. There's no reason that people in Alma Arkansas (just throwing out a name) should be held hostage in their own homes for 2 months because NYC has a bunch of people dying from this. Change the "one size fits all" response to a more defined regional approach based on current conditions.

You’re familiar with Alma? Meet me at Sonic.


















Just kidding @Turbo Buffalo

 

[HTHog]

So far, what they've recommended for us to do has worked

 

[smallmouthhog]

Well that's overstating things. Who has said they want that? Both of my folks are over 80 and I have avoided seeing them for 3 weeks now.

I'm not advocating that we all go back to how things were in January immediately. Step by step is the way to do it. Keep the LARGE gatherings canceled. No games. No conventions. Make groups of 50 or less ok so restaurants and bars can open back up. Try to be diligent in observing the 6 foot rule where you can. Keep the over 70 crowd at home for a bit longer. Continue to not visit your older parents or grandparents. No visitors allowed at Hospitals and Nursing Homes. Let offices start opening with half staff coming every other day or something like that.

I'll tell you this. if they don't start hinting at ending this stuff soon, the people will just start doing it on their own. The numbers that are coming out are pissing a lot of folks off who have been hurt from this thing. There's no reason that people in Alma Arkansas (just throwing out a name) should be held hostage in their own homes for 2 months because NYC has a bunch of people dying from this. Change the "one size fits all" response to a more defined regional approach based on current conditions.

Making way to much sense man.

 

[mcbmd]

Well that's overstating things. Who has said they want that? Both of my folks are over 80 and I have avoided seeing them for 3 weeks now.

I'm not advocating that we all go back to how things were in January immediately. Step by step is the way to do it. Keep the LARGE gatherings canceled. No games. No conventions. Make groups of 50 or less ok so restaurants and bars can open back up. Try to be diligent in observing the 6 foot rule where you can. Keep the over 70 crowd at home for a bit longer. Continue to not visit your older parents or grandparents. No visitors allowed at Hospitals and Nursing Homes. Let offices start opening with half staff coming every other day or something like that.

I'll tell you this. if they don't start hinting at ending this stuff soon, the people will just start doing it on their own. The numbers that are coming out are pissing a lot of folks off who have been hurt from this thing. There's no reason that people in Alma Arkansas (just throwing out a name) should be held hostage in their own homes for 2 months because NYC has a bunch of people dying from this. Change the "one size fits all" response to a more defined regional approach based on current conditions.

I don't think this is altogether unreasonable.

I think before doing that, I would want to see a consistent decrease in deaths & hospitalizations (both better metrics than positive tests) for more than just a few days.

 

[nikkichavanelle]

When the 100-200k model came out, Fauci said the key to beating the model was keeping metro areas from major outbreaks. We’ve been able to do that, hence the new, lower number. This is all good news. We’ll be back to work as usual soon.

 

[HTHog]

There was a false narrative being pushed for a while that this affected younger people much worse. I still laugh at the 18-65 age group that was once again used in the link you posted.

That narrative was in full effect back when there were reports of Spring breakers ignoring things. Hummm, isn't that a coincidence?

"Bunch of youngs not paying attention? Ok then. Let's put their numbers in with the olds so they will get scared shitless and stay home. They'll never figure out that a 65 year old's lungs are a terrible comparison to an 18 year old's lungs"

 

[Lowcountry Hog]

I don’t think we have a one size fits all approach. South Carolina’s stance seems different than Arkansas’s. I think federalism (of which I’m a huge fan of) is working as evidenced by Arkansas’s success thus far

 

[HTHog]

I don't think this is altogether unreasonable.

I think before doing that, I would want to see a consistent decrease in deaths & hospitalizations (both better metrics than positive tests) for more than just a few days.

Agreed. Not advocating for starting it tomorrow. Next week or the week after would be good for some parts of the country though unfortunately I suspect they will keep the current April 30 date in effect for everyone and start back to normal in some places right after that.

If someone can tell me why a bar in Terlingua Texas, which is in BFE and has zero cases, can't be open next week I'm all ears.

 

[The Real Boss Hog]

I also know that the govt. is sending people money directly, giving out billions of dollars of loans to corps and small business to mitigate that

Nikki, have you been hurt by this economically? I may be wrong, but I would imagine this shutdown has had little to no impact on you at this time because you still have a job that you can do from your home.

Now let me ask you, what is the worst thing that could happen to you if you were to lose your job and could not find another job before unemployment benefits ran out. My guess is you are probably renting your home/apartment and would just move out and move back in with your parents. Not ideal I am sure, but not a horrible situation.

Now imagine if you lost your job and had 2 or 3 kids to provide for at home. You can’t find a job and you have a mortgage to pay. You go bankrupt and the bank forecloses on your home. You lose all the equity that you had built up in your home. Moving in with your parents is not an option.

I bet at that point you would feel a lot different about this shutdown. The economy will bounce back at some point, but for a lot of people it will not happen fast enough and they will lose their homes and everything they had worked hard for in their life.

 

[nikkichavanelle]

Nikki, have you been hurt by this economically? I may be wrong, but I would imagine this shutdown has had little to no impact on you at this time because you still have a job that you can do from your home.

Now let me ask you, what is the worst thing that could happen to you if you were to lose your job and could not find another job before unemployment benefits ran out. My guess is you are probably renting your home/apartment and would just move out and move back in with your parents. Not ideal I am sure, but not a horrible situation.

Now imagine if you lost your job and had 2 or 3 kids to provide for at home. You can’t find a job and you have a mortgage to pay. You go bankrupt and the bank forecloses on your home. You lose all the equity that you had built up in your home. Moving in with your parents is not an option.

I bet at that point you would feel a lot different about this shutdown. The economy will bounce back at some point, but for a lot of people it will not happen fast enough and they will lose their homes and everything they had worked hard for in their life.

Appreciate the thoughtfulness of the post but I can assure you I’m not oblivious to the effects of economic downturn

 

[Doyle55731]

You are still trumpeting the better safe than sorry method and that it does no harm to the country. You're wrong, and the intentional, yes intentional, scare tactics are just as bad in my book

Very well said!

 

[hawgn02]

Appreciate the thoughtfulness of the post but I can assure you I’m not oblivious to the effects of economic downturn

From my exchanges with you, I felt like you lacked perspective of how bad the economy is going to get. Your last post in this thread is a good example...“we will be back to work soon as usual”. That’s not what’s going to happen for 10 million+ people. Hopefully it does and you can tell us what idiots we were to worry.

 

[mikedamone]

When the 100-200k model came out, Fauci said the key to beating the model was keeping metro areas from major outbreaks. We’ve been able to do that, hence the new, lower number. This is all good news. We’ll be back to work as usual soon.

I thought it could be in the 100-200 range if and only if we did everything PERFECT.

 

[nikkichavanelle]

I thought it could be in the 100-200 range if and only if we did everything PERFECT.

That’s the phrasing Birx used but I read a CDC official’s quote that said it actually modeled 50% of people social distancing perfectly

 

[HTHog]

 

[Mhhoover92]

The DOW being down 69,420 points is alarming to say the least

 

[Michael Honcho]

You’re familiar with Alma? Meet me at Sonic.


















Just kidding @Turbo Buffalo

Mozz sticks and limeades are on me.

 

[PorkshankRedemption]

The DOW being down 69,420 points is alarming to say the least

It’s actually up almost 40% in about 2.5 weeks.

However, it may be a good selling time, imo. I think the startling job numbers will create a terrible week.

 

[smallmouthhog]

From my exchanges with you, I felt like you lacked perspective of how bad the economy is going to get. Your last post in this thread is a good example...“we will be back to work soon as usual”. That’s not what’s going to happen for 10 million+ people. Hopefully it does and you can tell us what idiots we were to worry.

As i get older i realize younger people lack perspective simple because they are young. That is not an insult as realize i didn't when i was younger.

I was arguing on here with someone about Houston Nutt recently. I ask the poster his age and got jumped on by several posters that didn't realize why i ask.

If your 3o years old you remember Nutts tenure and form your opinion there. But what you dont remember is how bad it was before he got here and the frenzy he put is in in 98. Just by being younger you cannot have the perspective a 55 year old does. That is why i ask him that. He thought i was insinuating he was young and dumb. I should have made that clear. I appreciated what Nutt did because I have a different perspective.

One of the smartest traits a person can have is knowing what you dont know. I try to remember that when discussing things i haven't been through. Not always easy to do.

 

[Mass31]

Biden. He is part of the old political guard (similar to HRC). He is also old, senile, and is suffering from a form of Dementia.

Also voted for all the trade deals that sent everything to China. Trump has been tough on China. Best thing he has done in office. I think people are underestimating the Anti-China sentiment that will come from this virus.

It’s pretty impressive that the DNC picked Biden. I think it just shows the good ol boy system in politics.

 

[Lowcountry Hog]

Version 2.0

 

[NMHOGG]

Well the virus killed poppa Maloof, it’s coming for our beer.

 

[Mhhoover92]

It’s actually up almost 40% in about 2.5 weeks.

However, it may be a good selling time, imo. I think the startling job numbers will create a terrible week.

Can’t tell if this is a troll

 

[PorkshankRedemption]

Can’t tell if this is a troll

Narp...

Dow was 18,000 on March 28th...11 days ago.

It’s at 23,400 now, so up 5,340. Or 30%...

 

[Mhhoover92]

Narp...

Dow was 18,000 on March 28th...11 days ago.

It’s at 23,400 now, so up 5,340. Or 30%...

Lol the picture that HT posted had the DOW down 69,420 points or percent in the bottom right corner, it’s a gag

I hate you did all that work

 

[PorkshankRedemption]

Lol the picture that HT posted had the DOW down 69,420 points or percent in the bottom right corner, it’s a gag

I hate you did all that work

LOL, it took 2 seconds...I just like bringing good news.

Hilarious touch I didn’t see on my phone.

 

[NMHOGG]

 

[Lefty8]

View embedded media

Yeah, but if they jumped off a cliff, would you?


Weird way to justify being irresponsible

 

[NMHOGG]

Yeah, but if they jumped off a cliff, would you?


Weird way to justify being irresponsible

Your reply makes no sense, at best you miss the point and assume facts/conjecture not in evidence.

 

[Lefty8]

Your reply makes no sense, at best you miss the point and assume facts/conjecture not in evidence.

Lol

 

[hawgn02]

View embedded media

A week of reduced profits!? lol, you mean 2 months? We will learn what businesses have solid financial footing.

 

[Italian Arkie]

I’m downloading this to my Microsoft Zune player and bumping it in my car.

 

[Hogeye73]

Go with their recommendations? What does that have to do with whether or not they fudged the numbers higher intentionally?

Nikkie, our own @mcbmd even said that the original estimates from Imperial that had published were beneficial in getting people to pay attention. He said "The Imperial College report was probably the eye-opener we needed though to start taking this seriously. That 2.2 million number that was quoted for the US was assuming that the status quo was continued - no school closures, no social distancing, etc. It will be impossible to know whether that model was accurate, but had they projected 50000 deaths in the US, for instance, everyone would say "This is no different than the flu" and no changes would have been implemented. "

He admits that these numbers would have an impact on people's perceptions and willingness to "take one for the team" so to speak. So knowing this, you do not think that they used other subsequent projections to their benefit? Lol...

Their benefit or our benefit?

 

[Lefty8]

Their benefit or our benefit?

The deep state gives two shits about you, and less about others