OT 100% NOT the Official Off-Topic/Politics/Corona Thread
- Thread starter portlandhog
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That we're going to get out of the economic down turn but people aren't going to get their loved ones back.
All of the above, then I use my brain to know that 98% of it is bullshit. I sure as hell don't argue about a topic and then proclaim that I don't watch any news on TV while posting random twitter comments and laughing at comments by those with lesser followers
What else ya got? I've got about 5 minutes before I gotta get back at work
This is a great example of why good leaders can't think with their hearts.
I just can't understand that thought process. It was absolutely going to be that bad until absolutely unprecedented steps were taken. Sure some of the initial models were probably overly pessimistic, but I can't imagine what the infection numbers and the death toll would look like if we had treated this like a typical flu season.
You should read the model projection in my progression post, mcbmd. They stated if New York didn't shut down for three months...200k people are going to die.
That's not going to happen...and New York is now projected to have 13k people die from the disease.
You can't see that, and the other projections that had MILLIONS of people dying, and go, "obviously social distancing was the only factor."
Was it a factor, no doubt...no doubt. Was it the major factor between a million people dying and 60k people possible dying...I don't think so.
And yet almost every world leader has gone with the social distancing approach despite the effects on their individual economies... so are you saying we have no good leaders out there?
Very sad...100% true...
But we're looking at 10-15% unemployment...or 30-45 million people...who probably average a dependent per to make 60-90 million people financially effected by this downturn for somethig that statiscally appears to happen every year from contagious diseases.
I don't understand why we continue to argue about this. You don't believe there are people running the show who are 100x more knowledgeable than we are?
That was not my argument???
My argument was would companies such as "Now This" be financially responsible like some say Fox is.
Also, glad to hear you say Trump is 100x smarter than you. I don't think that, I think you're quite smart. You give him too much credit.
Do you believe that "doctor" in that video, who just so happens to be the sister of a lib senator, really believed that 47.5 million Americans were going to die if we did nothing? Or, do you believe there might have been other motives to publishing such nonsense, knowing that her Dr status would make people believe her insane projections?
The best projections now WITH MITIGATION are 60k deaths which is the same as the worst flu season the US has had in the last decade. So no, it would have been much, much worse than our worst flu season. How can you not comprehend this
How many times must projections prove to be wrong before you open your eyes ?
Right now, based upon the only model we have that isn't strictly "socially distancing," it would be 1.5-2 times worse.
Sweden has a mortality of 68/million pop...us is 39.
Tough to answer and remember all the garbage that has been spouted the last few weeks. I'll give you a pass
Sweden is currently experiencing a rise in case number and in deaths so they're adding more restrictions
I can't either. My kids went to school during that flu season. I went to every home basketball game with 10k plus other people that flu season. Went to church every Sunday that flu season. Hung out with friends that flu season. Let my kids play with their friends that flu season. Went to crowded bars/restaurants that flu season. Kept my clinic open to everyone that flu season. Literally did absolutely nothing in 2016 or in any other flu season to prevent infection other than wash my hands a little more. I would imagine that all the rest of y'all probably did most of the same things. We had an estimated 60,000 deaths from a virus that is roughly half as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 with ZERO social distancing being practiced by the majority of people. If we manage to keep the death toll from COVID19 at 60,000 people it will be because DRASTIC measures were taken. That's not opinion, that's not politics, that's just science.
Jesus, you're dense.
I DON'T AGREE WITH THE LOGIC TO SUE FOX OR NOW THIS.
The logic was...
A=B therefore C
D=B therefore C?
A= Fox
B=Was wrong about the virus
C=Sue
D=Now This
I said, in the original post that I don't think news agencies should be sued for prognostications...only that if someone thought the first argument was rational, wouldn't they think the second was just as rational?
Now This was sharing someone else's words not making their own predictions, down playing the virus and potentially keeping people from protecting themselves like Fox was.
The models haven't even been remotely close to being accurate. Data scientists have questioned the data from the beginning. This was from a month ago. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ There are now three Stanford professors that have written similar articles. The Covid models that factored in full social distancing from the start is now predicting 60k total deaths. The same model was predicting 400k deaths with full social distancing, then 240k, then 91k, and now 60k. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
This. I just don't understand some of yall. Just mind boggling.
This is an unprecedented event. There were hundreds of models out there trying to predict this unprecedented event. At no time in recent human history have we tried to predict that the spread of a worldwide disease and the effect of that spread if we were to successfully distance from each other socially. So yes, the models may be wrong (Thank God) but what the Doctor said above is indisputable.
I know you think you are taking the moral high ground by elevating life over money but what's really happening is you are elevating the individual over the collective. Dangerous game
Ioannidis is a lunatic and has been for years. I read that article three weeks ago and thought it was literally the most asinine thing I had ever read. Interesting that we haven't heard from him in 3 weeks.
Its gone from, "we haven't done enough" to "we did so much that it drastically changed the trajectory of the virus."
People will adjust their narrative to rationalize their comments while withholding conceding inaccuracy.
No, the reason the death projections are dropping is because they were artificially inflated in the first place by medical professionals in an effort to have everyone take this seriously and not cause an uproar over our economy and people's personal finances being devastated.
All of these projections were made WITH social distancing being in place so this is not a case of "Oh lookie here, social distancing works". This is a situation where they overstated this from the start and overreacted.
Nobel laureate Michael Levitt with similar comments
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate
I don't think you are understanding the frustration. Most are not arguing social distancing did nothing, the argument is we had no clue how dangerous this thing was, still don't know how dangerous this thing is and we shut down anyway.
Social distancing always works to some extent or another, it has to but we haven't done it before, why now? The reason was bad models that went from predicting millions down to 60k and sure to keep dropping.
Let's say under 40k die with SD, would that have been worth it? What about 30, 20? 60? What number of lives is worth distancing and what isn't. How effective is it? Did it save 1/2 or 2%
Lots of questions, no answers, drastic measures take . Thqtbus the definition of illogical emotional decisions
These models were with social distancing in place so they can't use the "See, what we did worked" card.
“100k-200k is the projection if we do everything perfectly according to Dr. Birx, if we loosen restrictions too soon, it goes right back up”
-Nikki
Levitt is more tolerable. I read that as well. I don't agree with him on every point that he makes, but it's mostly sound. He is a strong advocate of aggressive distancing policies (unlike Ioannidis). I don't know many scientists/researchers that would piss on Ioannidis if his hair was on fire.
This is the problem
You can only imagine. That is all you have. I can imagine Shania Twain will ne waiting naked in bed for me when I get home. But im not going to take off work early and head home.
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