OT 100% NOT the Official Off-Topic/Politics/Corona Thread
- Thread starter portlandhog
- Start date
Thanks for pointing out the need for clarification. Definitely more widespread. As far as worse? So many unknown factors still. There are no antibodies in the human body for this virus. Will hot weather kill it off like the flu? Will it come back stronger in the fall/winter? Lots of unknowns.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
Pretty good article from a professor at Stanford.
Pretty good article from a professor at Stanford.
Good article, thanks for posting. The UK did end up abandoning their plan to not close schools as mentioned in the article
https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-...trategy-that-would-cause-250000-deaths-2020-3
“If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.”
I said this a week ago and many of our epidemiologists on the board chastised me for espousing fake news.
“Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.“
Tbf, the jury is still out on that
You quoted the worst case scenario. I quoted what he approximated the death toll would be based upon the numbers he’s seeing from wholistic data sets like the cruise ship.
They are extrapolations of facts. Did you not read the article?
“a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis”
He looked at the data from the only wholistic data set and took a mid point range of the mortality rate and produced the number given 1% infection.
You picked one scenario out of a million scenarios and basically said “told y’all”.
I picked a scenario that an epidemiologist forecasted and said I said the exact same scenario is possible and I was lambasted. This isn’t an I told you so. This is a, “hey, not everyone who thinks the world isn’t over is a lead sub maker at their local subway.”
Confirming what the White House said they were worried about yesterday, 38 percent of the U.S. patients known to have been hospitalized for COVID-19 were between age 20 and 54, and nearly half of those admitted to the intensive care unit were adults under 65, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Wednesday.
https://news.yahoo.com/nearly-half-...-063434940.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=2_04
https://news.yahoo.com/nearly-half-...-063434940.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=2_04
Out of curiosity, how old are you?
the story says..
The report showed that adults of all ages are at risk of getting sick from the coronavirus — of the 2,449 patients examined, 6 percent were 85 and older, 25 percent were 65 to 84, 29 percent were 20 to 44, and 5 percent were 19 and younger, the CDC said. People 20 to 44 — the millennial generation — accounted for 20 percent of those hospitalized and 12 percent of ICU patients.
Oh God. Not even one week into quarantine and Nickolas is looking for another suitor. Ben has already worked her nerves.
I'm too much man for nikki, but we can still be friends. I'll be 41 next Thursday. Oh, and I hate links so I didn't read the article
"Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table)."
For those confused by the last bold and underlined, that means, if you go to the hospital with the disease and are between the age of 20-44, you have a 2-4% chance of needing to go to the ICU.
A) There's a reason the original article didn't show the numbers of patients reviewed or the percentages of those who actually end up going to the ICU...it would be against their narrative
B) When looking at links like this provided by the fear porn addicted, follow the bread crumbs to the original documentation and review the literature. Peter Weber's, no not that Peter Weber but the author of the yahoo article, goal is to get as many clicks as possible, not inform individuals.
Last edited:
@jdr0269 i still think the rate of hospitalization is higher than a lot of people would've thought. A lot of millenials are operating under the assumption that even if they got COVID-19 they could just stay home and be total fine but the numbers show they're more at risk than they thought
It’s a math problem.
Your numerator, those needing hospitalization, will always be more accurate than your denominator, those with the disease.
For example, 100/1000 15-50 yo need hospitalization in the state of New York. The 100 should be fairly accurate, because if you’re struggling to breathe and have a temperature beyond what you believe home remedies could alleviate...specifically in a time like this...you’re going to the hospital. The 1000 is difficult to determine because those infected won’t always become PUI and get tested...like a person in New York who decides to fly to NWA even though they weren’t feeling well......
The numbers out there right now are 5% hospitalization, 2% ICU, 1% require respirator...regardless of age.
- May 11, 2002
- 33,265
- 32,036
- 113
Interesting, because this link I have says that sealed bottles or cans of beer can be sold with the purchase of food.
https://www.thv11.com/mobile/articl...-days/91-cb95f646-7ab0-4f52-9620-9d1ed5508847
That nursing home is a fcked situation. Boss' wife works in that arena and told us what happened
That's Briarwood, I believe. There are two other long-term senior care centers that have confirmed cases that I know of, so it's not unlikely that they'll spread rapidly in those locations, too.
Not sure. I'm only hearing institution-specific information (UAMS/ACH) and the rest is through the grapevine talking with docs in other areas that are colleagues of mine, etc. I don't have access to more specifics beyond that.
Thanks for the answer, ive got a Grandma in Mt Ida
The latest on the UBI proposal from the Senate:
"The plan Mr. McConnell introduced calls for taxpayers to receive up to $1,200, with married couples eligible to receive as much as $2,400 with an additional $500 for every child. Those payments will scale down for individuals who make more than $75,000 and couples that make more than $150,000. Individuals who make more than $99,000 and households that earn more than $198,000 won’t be eligible for direct assistance.
"The legislation Mr. McConnell outlined provides for low-income Americans who paid no income taxes in 2018 to receive $600 if they earned $2,500 in qualifying income. That’s half the $1,200 that middle-income adults would receive.
"Beyond the direct payments to individuals, the Republican proposal would relax a host of tax deadlines. Individuals wouldn’t have to file their 2019 tax returns until July 15, and individuals and corporations could avoid estimated tax payments until Oct. 15. In addition, employers could defer payroll tax payments until 2021 and 2022. (Trump already announced the Tax Deadline extension today, he also announced a freeze on student loan payments (previously was just interest) for 60 days)
From (what Michael Scott would call) The Wall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-prepare-third-coronavirus-measure-11584622892
"The plan Mr. McConnell introduced calls for taxpayers to receive up to $1,200, with married couples eligible to receive as much as $2,400 with an additional $500 for every child. Those payments will scale down for individuals who make more than $75,000 and couples that make more than $150,000. Individuals who make more than $99,000 and households that earn more than $198,000 won’t be eligible for direct assistance.
"The legislation Mr. McConnell outlined provides for low-income Americans who paid no income taxes in 2018 to receive $600 if they earned $2,500 in qualifying income. That’s half the $1,200 that middle-income adults would receive.
"Beyond the direct payments to individuals, the Republican proposal would relax a host of tax deadlines. Individuals wouldn’t have to file their 2019 tax returns until July 15, and individuals and corporations could avoid estimated tax payments until Oct. 15. In addition, employers could defer payroll tax payments until 2021 and 2022. (Trump already announced the Tax Deadline extension today, he also announced a freeze on student loan payments (previously was just interest) for 60 days)
From (what Michael Scott would call) The Wall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-prepare-third-coronavirus-measure-11584622892
Thanks man. Feel much better today. No fever and aches are gone. No coughing either. NyQuil is a miracle drug
Similar threads
