Nice find.
Good to see from a country that has the highest trusted data numbers associated with mortality.
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Nice find.
Good to see from a country that has the highest trusted data numbers associated with mortality.
Thanks for pointing out the need for clarification. Definitely more widespread. As far as worse? So many unknown factors still. There are no antibodies in the human body for this virus. Will hot weather kill it off like the flu? Will it come back stronger in the fall/winter? Lots of unknowns.More widespread or worse? There is a difference
Good article, thanks for posting. The UK did end up abandoning their plan to not close schools as mentioned in the articlehttps://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
Pretty good article from a professor at Stanford.
“If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.”https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
Pretty good article from a professor at Stanford.
“If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.”
I said this a week ago and many of our epidemiologists on the board chastised me for espousing fake news.
You quoted the worst case scenario. I quoted what he approximated the death toll would be based upon the numbers he’s seeing from wholistic data sets like the cruise ship.“Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.“
Tbf, the jury is still out on that
They’re both guesses. Your post made it seem like those numbers are factsYou quoted the worst case scenario. I quoted what he approximated the death toll would be based upon the numbers he’s seeing from wholistic data sets like the cruise ship.
They are extrapolations of facts. Did you not read the article?They’re both guesses. Your post made it seem like those numbers are facts
Gonna make this a tattooThey are extrapolations of facts. Did you not read the article?
“a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis”
He looked at the data from the only wholistic data set and took a mid point range of the mortality rate and produced the number given 1% infection.
You picked one scenario out of a million scenarios and basically said “told y’all”.They are extrapolations of facts. Did you not read the article?
“a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis”
He looked at the data from the only wholistic data set and took a mid point range of the mortality rate and produced the number given 1% infection.
I picked a scenario that an epidemiologist forecasted and said I said the exact same scenario is possible and I was lambasted. This isn’t an I told you so. This is a, “hey, not everyone who thinks the world isn’t over is a lead sub maker at their local subway.”You picked one scenario out of a million scenarios and basically said “told y’all”.
Fair enough. My apologies for misinterpretingI picked a scenario that an epidemiologist forecasted and said I said the exact same scenario is possible and I was lambasted. This isn’t an I told you so. This is a, “hey, not everyone who thinks the world isn’t over is a lead sub maker at their local subway.”
I wonder how many of those were between 45 and 54?Confirming what the White House said they were worried about yesterday, 38 percent of the U.S. patients known to have been hospitalized for COVID-19 were between age 20 and 54, and nearly half of those admitted to the intensive care unit were adults under 65, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Wednesday.
https://news.yahoo.com/nearly-half-...-063434940.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=2_04
Out of curiosity, how old are you?I wonder how many of those were between 45 and 54?
Oh God. Not even one week into quarantine and Nickolas is looking for another suitor. Ben has already worked her nerves.Out of curiosity, how old are you?
I'm too much man for nikki, but we can still be friends. I'll be 41 next Thursday. Oh, and I hate links so I didn't read the articleOh God. Not even one week into quarantine and Nickolas is looking for another suitor. Ben has already worked her nerves.
Yoooooo lmaoI'm too much man for nikki, but we can still be friends. I'll be 41 next Thursday. Oh, and I hate links so I didn't read the article
"Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table)."I wonder how many of those were between 45 and 54?
It’s a math problem.@jdr0269 i still think the rate of hospitalization is higher than a lot of people would've thought. A lot of millenials are operating under the assumption that even if they got COVID-19 they could just stay home and be total fine but the numbers show they're more at risk than they thought
That nursing home is a fcked situation. Boss' wife works in that arena and told us what happenedOfficial case number up to 96 in Arkansas, including 13 in a Little Rock nursing home
That's Briarwood, I believe. There are two other long-term senior care centers that have confirmed cases that I know of, so it's not unlikely that they'll spread rapidly in those locations, too.That nursing home is a fcked situation. Boss' wife works in that arena and told us what happened
Anything in MtIda?That's Briarwood, I believe. There are two other long-term senior care centers that have confirmed cases that I know of, so it's not unlikely that they'll spread rapidly in those locations, too.
Not sure. I'm only hearing institution-specific information (UAMS/ACH) and the rest is through the grapevine talking with docs in other areas that are colleagues of mine, etc. I don't have access to more specifics beyond that.Anything in MtIda?
Thanks for the answer, ive got a Grandma in Mt IdaNot sure. I'm only hearing institution-specific information (UAMS/ACH) and the rest is through the grapevine talking with docs in other areas that are colleagues of mine, etc. I don't have access to more specifics beyond that.
nooooo100.1 temp, aches , and lethargic is definitely not how I would like to be feeling now
No cough or anything which is positive I guess lolnooooo
For sure, sounds like the fluNo cough or anything which is positive I guess lol
Hang in there dude...100.1 temp, aches , and lethargic is definitely not how I would like to be feeling now
Thanks man. Feel much better today. No fever and aches are gone. No coughing either. NyQuil is a miracle drugHang in there dude...