The last time Arkansas beat a ranked SEC team on the road (31-14 @ #9 LSU) before the MSU win last Saturday. Can we make it two in a row?

Once again loaded with tons of good information that should give you enough reading material to pretend to work the rest of the day... https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/emptying-the-notebook-notes-tidbits-stats-on-arkansas-auburn

Hearing that the Auburn team has turned against Gus & Chad. Bet the farm on Arkansas!

Just heard it from an announcer on the Louisville/GA Tech broadcast on ESPN

GMC or Ford?

So, I'm bored and I've basically made the Bert a pseudo hobby during the Rona. Additionally, another website that has taken over more time than I'm willing to admit is ProFootballFocus. This site provides incredible insight into CFB players and statistics that I really haven't seen put into a better portal before now.

To combine those two hobbies, I thought it would be fun to find 3 areas Arkansas could potentially exploit against an opponent's weakness. In my head, this sounds like an awesome idea. On paper, it may be shit. If it appears to be the latter, let me know. I also used the most cliché statement in football for the title as anything more than three seemed too daunting of a task and I didn't want to spend a lot of time on the name. Well, without further rambling, here's my first go at it.

Three Areas to Expose:

1. Bo Nix's struggles against pressure
   • I think it's been evident that I'm not the biggest Nix fan: he runs a QB friendly offense with an offensive coordinator as a head coach yet is constantly praised regardless of only achieving mediocre at best statistics. If anything, this offense should inflate a QB's abilities/statistics rather than limit his potential. It's no secret that QB's have underperformed under Malzahn at Auburn, but you could additionally point to Newton or Marshall and show how a talented QB could thrive in the offense.
     
     With all of that said, the stats in 2020 again clearly indicate Bo Nix is well below average. Specifically, his struggles appear to be magnified far more than the average QB if you get in his face:
     
     
     
     
     The two numbers that I want to hammer on this image are 2.0 ypa and a completion percentage of 26.1%. To put those numbers into perspective, Nix is the 6th worst QB in D1 (min 70 dropbacks - 56 QBs) under pressure in terms of completion percentage and 2nd worst QB in D1 (min 70 dropbacks - 56 QBs) under pressure in terms of yards per attempt. In other words, he's arguably the worst QB in D1 when under pressure.
2. Auburn's Run Game Issues
   • I think we can all attest to the greatness that is UGA's run defense: eight players from their current team could have their names called in this year's draft. However, looking over Auburn's rushing numbers, it is alarming how poorly they've run the ball over the first 2 games.
     
     
     
     
     
     Highlighted are the two main areas of note: no push & no explosion. As Auburn averages 2.32 yards per carry after contact and 3.0 yards per attempted rush, that indicates Auburn averages 0.68 yards/carry prior to contact. Or to put it into layman's terms, on the 47 attempts running the ball this year Auburn only gets approximately 2 football lengths beyond the line of scrimmage before they are hit. Additionally, of their 4 runs over 10 yards this year, 3 of them have been by the QB and 1 is by their injured running back, Shivers.
     
     
     
     
     
     Of the two healthy RBs that have gotten significant PT this year, Auburns averaged yard per carry has been 2.6 for D.J Williams and 3.3 for Tank Bigsby. So not only is Auburn struggling with pressure in the QBs face, they are additionally struggling to get any push and any explosion from the OL & RBs, respectively.
3. Attacking Auburn's Run Defense
   • This is an area that I thought Auburn would be high in statistically. Their first two games were against opponents who define their offensive success based upon how well they do running while their quarterbacks are either an unknown (UGA) or are strongly predisposed to running the ball (UK). Kevin Steele is a fantastic DC and I assumed that AU would do everything they could to make both programs as one dimensional as possible via limiting the run. However, looking over the stats, AU has been well below average in both tackling and rush defense.
     
     The first area of note, tackling, is even more pronounced on their defensive line. Below is an image taken from PFF in which I highlighted the 9 players for Auburn who have over 90 snaps on the year. The three DL that have played the most for Auburn - Newkirk, Wooden, & Truesdell - each have an average tackling grade below 40. To put this in perspective, if you were to compare Arkansas' top 9 defender in terms of snaps to AU, these three players would rank below 8 of our 9 players (Greg Brooks Jr. - 28.8).
     
     
     
     
     
     Additionally, if you were to do this same exercise in terms of rush defense, those three aforementioned players would only be higher than 7 of our 9 players (Greg Brooks Jr. - 47.8; Bumper Pool - 32.2). What this is saying is Auburn's DL has been exceptionally sub-par in terms of defending the run.
     
     
     
     
     
     It is again illustrated in the images of the two teams running success against them.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     This shows each team was able to dictate the LOS against AU by looking at their yards/carry before contact: 1.92 for UGA and 2.63 for UK. Combined, AU opponents have 82 rushes for 371 yards (4.52 ypa) and 187 yards after contact (2.28 ypo) indicating a 2.24 yards/carry prior to contact. To contrast with their OL that is averaging 0.68 yards/carry prior to contact, AU is getting ~3x less of a push on the defensive front in comparison to their opponents.

Hope you all enjoyed! Go Hogs!

Let’s say you beat Gus Malzahn and Chad Morris on ESPN to return to DWRRS to face Ole Miss as a ranked team.

I hereby request that Greg Sankey open the gates to let us all in! A once dead program would be alive...

I will work with HY to provide 80K bubble boy costumes if need be to fight covid.

If not, stadium security is going to need to be at an all-time level to prevent the stampede of fans that will come.

Batted balls at the line of scrimmage.

Thank you Feleipe Franks.

I caught the tail end of Hunter Yurachek’s interview with JB this morning. He confirmed Arkansas hoops won’t be going to Vegas and that they’re trying to get as many home games as possible in November and December.

There will be fans, but it’ll be 20%-25% capacity. With a capacity of 19,200, that means about 3,840-4,800 fans.

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I don't want to watch football anymore. Man I hate Chad.

Here ya go... https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/sec-announces-arkansas-new-2020-schedule

Wanna win some monies while we watch our Hogs win? Here are some notable trends.

Line: Total:
Auburn -13.5 46

Arkansas ATS (current year): 2-0
Auburn ATS (current year): 1-1
Both teams are 0-2 against the OVER this year.


Arkansas is 4-1 ATS as 10.5 - 21 point underdogs over the past 3 seasons.
The over is 1-4 in those games and 6-11 in all games where Arkansas is an underdog.
Hogs are 8-40 SU as 10.5 - 21 underdogs since 1992.

Auburn is 2-2 in home games where they are favored by 10.5 to 21 points over the past 3 seasons.
The over is also 2-2 in those games.
Auburn is 56-8 SU as 10.5 - 21 point favorites since 1992.

Auburn is 15-13 ATS vs Arkansas since 1992
Auburn is 16-11 SU vs Arkansas since 1992
13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER the total since 1992.


I don't normally bet Hog's games, but that under is calling my name. 2 pretty anemic offenses, in rainy conditions, give me the u46 in a close game.

Says he's sure KJ. Britt's back up will be ready to go, he said it's sad because Britt is a great football player

He's confident Trelon can carry the starter load if necessary, "we'll see on Rakeem"

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This isn’t a thread about who will be the coach. I personally think the hiring committee is wasting its time if it’s holding out for Beard, but that’s for another thread.

Question is - why do so many folks seemingly believe that Beard is a far superior coach to Marshall?

What Beard is doing right now in Lubbock is super impressive, but wouldn’t you have to agree it’s harder to do the same with Wichita St? I know folks give Beard a lot of credit for what he did at UALR, but is it much different than what Musselman is doing in Nevada?

I guess my point is (and please jump in if you think I’m off base), why would you prefer to pay a guy $5M-$6M+ for a 6-7 yr contract over a guy that would have prbly come for $4M-$4.5M for 7 years and reached the same heights at a place that’s harder considerably harder to win and has shown a track record for actually wanting to stick around?

Both are great coaches, but I just don’t believe Beard’s worth turning down a comparable coach when he’s likely using you, and the other guy is actually at a fork in the road and could make a move.

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I saw it was posted in the Big Board thread, but thought it was worthy of its own thread.

From Jackson @CJC15WPS15:

For those of us yet to get a glass of whatever koolaid is going around, what flavor is it? I like grape and blue raspberry, so if it is either of those, I might be inclined to take a sip on Sunday.

Obviously you hope both are able to play, but here's the plan if either of them are out this weekend: https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/how-hogs-could-replace-boyd-burks-if-they-can-t-go-vs-auburn

I break it down: https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/hogs-hold-top-sec-pass-coverage-grade-through-two-weeks